A fierce political contest is expected in the upcoming Ol Kalou by-election, with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, President William Ruto, and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua all lining up for a high-stakes showdown.
Political players say Uhuru, Ruto and Gachagua are key players in the election with Jubilee fighting for survival while UDA party will be seeking dominance and Gachagua's DCP aims to stamp authority.
The by-election must be looked at beyond just replacing MP David Kiaraho but as a wider political contest for influence in Mt Kenya region.
Kiaraho who died while serving his third term was elected in the 2022 general election on Jubilee party ticket despite the then heavy political wave from UDA team lead by Ruto and Gachagua.
Lawyer Kiragu Wathuta, real estate businessman Paul Waiganjo, Isaac Kinyua, Kamau Ngotho, Peter Karanja and George Wambugu Kaburi are among those said to have declared interest to succeed Kiaraho.
UDA party is said to be positioning to consolidate its grip on the mountain, having recently won all the seats in Mbeere North, Evurore, and Muminji in Embu county.
On the other hand, the Jubilee is seeking to mount a comeback in order to reclaim the seat, having lost significant ground in the region.
Meanwhile, Gachagua’s camp is looking at the contest as a real opportunity to secure the DCP seat in Parliament.
Sources have hinted that the united opposition is working together to field a single candidate in a bid to consolidate votes and challenge both UDA and Jubilee dominance.
Gachagua’s team is banking on Senator John Methu, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, and former CS Sicily Kariuki to deliver the seat.
Jubilee is relying on its deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni and former Governor Francis Kimemia while UDA is expected to lean on regional heavyweights including Governor Kiarie Badilisha, Women Rep Faith Gitau and CS Rebecca Miano among others.
During Kiaraho’s burial on Wednesday, Methu dared Ruto and publicly told him he doesn’t fear him at all.
The senator, who is a close ally of Gachagua, took issue with National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichungwa warning him of continued abuse of the DCP boss.
“Mr. president, I respect you as head of state but I don’t fear you at all,” Methu said as the crowd cheered.
Gachagua cautioned leaders against early campaigns. He accused Deputy President Kithure Kindiki of rushing into the by-election debate even before Kiaraho had been buried.
“I can't talk about a by-election before Kiaraho is buried. We can't discuss the replacement of David Kiaraho before his burial. I heard Kindiki saying he will be here to show us politics, as a community, we don't discuss inheritance of anybody before he is buried, they should hold their horses, and allow us to bury Kiaraho, they are free to come later and face the people,” Gachagua said.
Kindiki hit back, urging Gachagua to focus on substantive issues and stop inciting the public.
“I have told him to leave me alone, I haven’t even started with him and he doesn’t know me, I will embarrass him, just wait, there is more ahead. The election is coming in Nyandarua. I am waiting for us to meet with this man.”
Kindiki accused Gachagua of engaging in divisive politics, insisting that leadership must be earned through engagement with the electorate.
MP Gitau during an interview with the Star confirmed that UDA will field a candidate in the by-election. She criticized Gachagua’s conduct during the burial, saying his speech was pure personal attacks and not issue-based.
Ruto warned leaders against fighting over the politics of succession noting that he will currently focus on development.
He dismissed claims that he requires permission to engage politically with the people of Mt Kenya noting that his relationship with the people dates back many years.
“I cannot asked for permission from anybody, nor am I going to ask for permission from anybody. I will speak and deliver to all the people as the President of Kenya.”
Ruto signaled plans to visit Ol Kalou in the coming weeks, underlining the growing political importance of the constituency.
He was responding to Gachagua’s claim that he lost the faith of people after his impeachment.
“President Ruto, you removed me from office but you can’t remove me from the hearts of these people. You betrayed them, but I have told the people not to heckle you once you visit the region,” Gachagua said.
Emma Kibiro, a Nyandarua-based leader and member of the Taita Taveta University Council, noted that succession politics in the constituency is inevitable.
“We cannot avoid succession politics especially for Ol Kalou, we need someone with the capacity to pick up from where Kiaraho left without hesitation. Engaging in the succession politics for the constituency would only assist in carefully identifying such a person for the benefit of the constituents,” she said.
Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu questioned Jubilee’s internal cohesion and alleged possible hidden arrangements.
“I still can’t believe Matiang’i did not bother to attend the funeral of one of the very few MPs, especially in Mt Kenya, elected on our party ticket; same party proposing him for the Presidency. I just can’t,” he wrote on his Facebook page.
He warned that the by-election will expose underlying political deals within the United Opposition.
“But where ‘body will throw clothes’ is Ol Kalou. We are waiting to see what happens. Kikiumana, we will know someone is cutting secret deals behind our back using our party. And we will go for him. Very hard.”
Wambugu questioned the logic of Jubilee failing to field a candidate for a seat it held in favour of another party.
“We must get to the bottom of this zoning story; or how else do you explain a Jubilee candidate stepping down for someone from another party?
Political analyst John Wahinya says the contest has now taken on national significance beyond Nyandarua.
He said the upcoming by-election will act as a regional referendum to determine who controls Mt Kenya.
“The Ol Kalou by-election will provide a perfect opportunity for Gachagua to prove that he has completely edged out President Ruto politically in the region and similarly to Uhuru’s party Jubilee.”
He said the outcome will test whether Ruto’s by-election momentum in Mt Kenya East can extend into Mt Kenya West.
JKUAT lecturer and former MCA Charles Mwangi said all camps face immense pressure heading into the race.
“The Ol Kalou by-election will now be critical for Gachagua to field a candidate and face off with UDA and Jubilee to prove that he is indeed the kingpin of Mt Kenya.
Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa during an interview with indicated that opposition coordination could play a decisive role.
“For the Ol Kalou by-election, we are working together. You do recall we had three by-elections, and in Malava, DCP stood down for DAP-K,” Wamalwa said.
Analysts argue that the idea of a united opposition front seem to have gained traction following recent engagements between Uhuru and Gachagua during a funeral in Kirinyaga that drew significant political attention.
During the meeting, Uhuru emphasised unity and leadership over political rivalry noting that he is keenly “listening to the ground”.
“Be leaders. That is what the people of Kenya want. They want leadership, not politics. They don’t want insults. They want direction. They want leadership that will see them through to the other side,” Uhuru said.
Kioni also recently acknowledged the growing competition in the region, warning that visibility on the ground will be key.
“This week alone, my brother, Gachagua has been on the mountain four times. So, if you are not present here, it will be difficult to compete with him,” Kioni said when they opened a Jubilee party office in Nyandarua.
Kioni later met Gachagua at his residence alongside Francis Kimemia, where they discussed the state of the country and the need to build a “united, inclusive, and pragmatic path” to address economic and governance challenges.
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