The fragmentation of ODM continues to realign political formations across the country as the 2027 general election draws closer. During the reign of its leader, Raila Odinga, ODM would ensure it formed a forced post-election alliance with the ruling party.
Raila had a knack for hardnosed backroom negotiations that yielded substantial influence in successive governments since 2007.
For that reason, the party always became part and parcel of government, even after losing the elections - notwithstanding that the election results were variously disputed, including at the Supreme Court.
However, since the demise of Raila, the enigma, the party has faced its most challenging leadership phase. The top leadership is not unanimous in its understanding of the party policy positions and major decisions.
Major fault lines emerged soon after the former Prime Minister’s burial and have since formed clear factions. Each faction has its identifiable leaders who have been crisscrossing the country to woo the grassroots membership to its side.
The Linda Ground and Linda Mwananchi brigades are the most vicious antagonists. They draw their leadership from the divided ODM mainstream organs.
The Coast wing has tactfully leaned towards the Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground faction but maintained a visible independence. It is focused and vocally united in the Coast agenda.
It has been keen on the leadership succession within ODM but only to the extent that they are perched at the apex of the leadership. Leaders are also clear about their intention and mission to be key players in the next government.
To this extent, they are convinced President William Ruto will win a second term and form the next government. They are determined to make a significant contribution that would assure them of influence in the current and next administrations.
The ODM in the Coast region has a long and rich history spanning the pre-independence period. It all began in 1922 when the Luo Union was formed in Nairobi. Around this time, several associations had been formed or were in the process of being formed across Kenya.
More Africans were identifying as nationalists, but there was still insufficient unity among ethnic communities such as the Luo. This union’s slogan was “Riwruok E Teko”, which translates to unity in strength. The mandate was to unite the community and be the people’s representation to the colonial authorities.
Then in 1945, as Africans began to imagine a liberated people, and subsequently a nation, it was necessary to form an economic arm of the union.
The mission was to empower African entrepreneurship while creating job opportunities for Africans. And so the Luo Thrift and Trading Corporation came to be.
Under this corporation businesses were established, the pioneer one being Maseno Store and the second Ramogi Press. Jaramogi Oginga Odinga registered the corporation in 1947. And at the same time, he revitalised and expanded the Luo Union to become the Luo Union East Africa, becoming its first Ker (chairman/chief) in 1947 and for the next 10 years.
He built the union into a larger, more structured entity to unite the Luo community across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Ramogi Press was a crucial part of his efforts to control communication, and in this regard it published a weekly newspaper, also titled Ramogi, which was a tool for political advocacy and mobilisation.
It should be noted that majority of the Luo community members were employed in the Railways and Port operations. Most of them were thus residents in the port cities of Mombasa, Dar es Salaam and Jinja. Many got comfortable with the coastal lifestyle and got assimilated into the local politics.
When Jaramogi later fell out with Jomo Kenyatta over the land question among other issues, the indigenous coastal people found a natural ally in him. During the subsequent de facto one-party state, the Luo community at the Coast found solitude in supporting key local leaders, such as Sharif Nassir and Juma Boy for parliamentary, council and party positions.
A few Luos, including Margaret Olang’ got token seats on the Mombasa Municipal Council. The majority of the political operatives became influential personalities around the leaders and played critical roles in the elections. The Luo Union East Africa continued to be the organising platform for major political resolutions of the community.
The membership of the union grew as time passed, thereby necessitating the formation of clan welfare associations as branches. These clan organisations had strong linkages with their upcountry kinsmen.
They mobilised funds to support education development such as the establishment of Ramogi Institute of Advanced Technology in Kisumu. They also came together to alleviate grief by contributing to funeral and related expenses for bereaved families.
This provided the nexus between the coastal and upcountry political leaderships through Jaramogi. For this reason, the Coast region became a natural opposition bastion upon the return of multiparty democracy in 1991.
Jaramogi as leader of Ford Kenya was the dominant political leader in the Coast from outside the region. The unity of the Luo community at the Coast made their alliance with the local communities politically strategic.
Raila’s radical orientation was welcome and exciting to the local communities, many of which professed the Islamic faith. This would come into play during the 2005 referendum campaigns.
The Orange movement was born out of resistance and the Coast region became a key pillar in its leadership. The leadership continued to agitate for their special rights and demand retribution for historical injustices.
Most of their grievances have concerned the dispossession of land and marginalisation from mainstream governance. Raila, through ODM, endeared himself to the Coast political leadership by always placing their key leaders at the centre of his leadership.
However, unlike other ODM strongholds where loyalty was direct to the former PM, the Coast always maintained structured engagement with the party leader through their kingpins.
In the party’s policy formulations, the region would regularly consult amongst themselves and thereafter pronounce themselves with one voice through their declared leader. At its formation, Najib Balala emerged as the supremo and went on to serve in the coalition Cabinet in various dockets.
He was later succeeded by his protégé, Ali Hassan Joho, who rose to become the deputy party leader and currently serves as a Cabinet Secretary. The party leadership, fragmented as it is, has embarked on nationwide campaigns to invigorate the party grassroots networks.
The various factions have been visiting the regions ahead of the planned National Delegates Convention slated for March 27 this year.
It has been clear that the Coast leadership has steered clear of the factional controversies and only attended the Tononoka grounds fete. In that and other separate events, they have openly declared their interest in the highest office that the party may bag in its negotiation with UDA.
They have also unanimously rallied behind Joho as their leader. Interestingly, the UDA leadership at the Coast does not appear hostile to the Coast’s unity of purpose and Joho’s leadership.
Hassan Omar is the national secretary general of UDA and has competed several times with Joho. They were together in ODM until Joho overtook him to reach the Cabinet helm. Their renewed camaraderie automatically locks out direct entry into the coastal mainstream politics by other parties.
The historical dynamics of Coast politics have come into play in the post-Raila ODM succession. The leadership has closed ranks and resolved to chart their path to pursue their agenda.
The ODM, being the dominant party in the region, is championing the movement. Leaders seem to be aware that the disintegration of the party is irreversible and unstoppable. When the dust settles, the party will be fragmented, weak and a pale shadow of its former self.
Their coming together is thus a deliberate response to their instinct for self-preservation. Without Raila, nobody can firmly assure them of prime recognition at the high table of the party. Consciously, they have been deliberate in taking steps to consolidate their political base.
To their advantage is a vast war chest of massive resources accumulated over the years in government circles. The leadership can comfortably finance its operations without external aid.
Currently, they have a cordial working relationship with UDA leader, President William Ruto. This provides the vital overt support for their political quest. Similarly, their active role in the broad-based government assures them of covert administrative cover from would-be external aggressors.
They have come out as a united front determined to play high-stakes politics at the national platform. They are focused on the Coast agenda of inclusivity and economic equity.
This makes the formation a formidable political force that will provide the swing vote in the 2027 election. The leadership will therefore be at the frontline in the ensuing coalition deal-making. This they will undertake as a faction of ODM or under a new political outfit altogether.
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