How deal with Rigathi team could change fortunes for Sifuna axis

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and DCP party leader and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua/FILE

The emerging plan by the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM to work with opposition is fast turning into a high-stakes political gamble that could redefine the group’s future.

The faction, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, has been staging high-energy rallies across the country, invoking the street mobilisation style associated with ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Siaya Governor James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi are among the key figures in the group.

The faction is now signalling a willingness to join forces with opposition heavyweights, including DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

While the move could strengthen the broader anti-government front, it also threatens to trigger internal cracks within the Sifuna camp and among traditional ODM supporters.

Political analysts warn that the biggest risk for the axis is not the handshake with the opposition, but the reaction of its core support base and the effect on its future influence.

The Linda Mwananchi faction has largely drawn its energy from diehard ODM loyalists who remain firmly aligned with Raila’s long-standing political line.

A section of these supporters remains deeply hostile to some opposition figures, particularly those who were previously at loggerheads with Raila.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says the alliance could alienate part of the movement’s base.

“There are people who support Sifuna or Babu Owino but do not support Gachagua,” he said, noting that political loyalty in Kenya remains personality-driven.

The concerns are already spilling into the open.

Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai questioned the logic of working with leaders who previously clashed with ODM supporters in the streets.

“It is ironic that they are asking us to work with Rigathi Gachagua, who fought us during the high cost of living protests,” he said.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma went further, warning that “Gachagua men hiding among us” would be exposed at the party’s next National Delegates Convention.

The discomfort is rooted in Raila’s long-standing political position.

In March last year, the ODM leader ruled out any possibility of working with Gachagua ahead of the 2027 General Election.

For many ODM loyalists, that declaration remains the party’s moral compass.

In a country where politics is deeply shaped by ethnic calculations, the group must navigate a complex and unforgiving terrain.

Orengo, for instance, is facing mounting political pressure at home and what analysts describe as a daunting re-election battle.

Babu Owino draws much of his support from Raila loyalists. Any perceived dalliance with the Gachagua camp could hand his rivals potent ammunition.

Meanwhile, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, armed with a formidable financial war chest, is laying the groundwork for a bid for the same seat. Kidero could eat into Babu’s support base.

From the Gusii region, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka and Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi have signalled intentions to contest on Fred Matiang’i’s Jubilee Party ticket, further complicating the emerging political matrix.

The perception that the Sifuna faction is drifting from Raila’s political posture is fuelling suspicion that the group is charting its own path.

However, insiders say the faction believes it cannot ignore the changing political arithmetic.

Supporters of the alliance argue that defeating President William Ruto will require a single, consolidated opposition.

Political observer Martin Andati says the pressure to unite is being driven by voters who want a formidable alternative to the current administration.

“Even the same supporters want Ruto to be sent home. That is why they are not supporting him,” he said.

Bichachi agrees, arguing that a fragmented opposition would hand Ruto an easy re-election.

“Beating Ruto means strong opposition. If they fail to unite because their supporters don’t want to, then Ruto will have a field day,” he said.

That reality appears to be shaping Sifuna’s messaging.

The embattled ODM secretary general, who is battling in court to retain his position, has framed the 2027 contest as a referendum on Ruto’s presidency.

“We must approach this election as a unit,” Sifuna said when asked about working with opposition figures.

“We must be one force against William Ruto. Our movement is not meant to split the vote.”

He added that the goal is to defeat Ruto by a margin of at least five million votes.

These developments are unfolding against the backdrop of a bitter internal struggle within ODM.

Sifuna leads a faction that has rejected ongoing cooperation talks between sections of ODM and Ruto’s UDA.

In recent weeks, the group has mounted high-energy rallies across the country, positioning itself as the authentic opposition voice.

However, critics within the party claim the faction has been quietly aligning itself with external opposition forces.

Suna East MP Junet Mohamed recently alleged that former president Uhuru Kenyatta is at the centre of the divisions rocking ODM.

Junet claimed he was approached by a senior figure who urged him to abandon the pro-broad-based camp and join an opposition coalition allegedly backed by Uhuru.

“They told me there was no need to support President Ruto. Their plan was that we unite in the opposition with Uhuru’s support,” he said, adding that the former president was ready to invest heavily in 2027 politics.

Although the claims remain unverified, they have intensified suspicion that powerful external forces are shaping the realignment.

Sifuna’s decision to read Uhuru’s message at ODM’s Founders’ Dinner in Mombasa last November was interpreted by some as an early signal of a soft spot for the former head of state.

For the Linda Mwananchi faction, the potential alliance presents both opportunity and danger.

On one hand, joining forces with Gachagua, Kalonzo and other opposition leaders could give the movement national reach, financial muscle and a clearer path to State House.

On the other hand, it risks eroding the emotional bond with ODM’s traditional base, which has been the backbone of the faction’s rapid rise.

The group must now walk a tight political rope: building a national coalition without losing its identity as the inheritor of Raila’s street mobilisation machinery.

If it succeeds, the Sifuna camp could emerge as a central pillar in a new opposition order.

If it fails, it risks splintering its support and fading as quickly as it rose.

For now, the message from the faction is one of unity, urgency and confrontation.

But whether their supporters will follow them into an alliance with former political adversaries remains the defining question ahead of 2027.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The Linda Mwananchi faction, led by Edwin Sifuna, is weighing an alliance with Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka to form a united front against William Ruto ahead of 2027. While the move could strengthen the opposition numerically, it risks alienating ODM loyalists still aligned with Raila Odinga and opposed to former rivals. Internal party tensions, claims of Uhuru-linked realignment, and personality-driven politics complicate the strategy. The faction is balancing national coalition-building against preserving its grassroots base and political identity.