By-election sweep puts Opposition on defensive ahead of 2027 polls

With 18 months to go before the next General Election, the battle lines have been drawn as the united opposition and the ruling Kenya Kwanza size each other up ahead of the August 10, 2027, showdown.

The election, already shaping up as a two-horse race, will see a united opposition challenge President William Ruto, the UDA flagbearer, seeking re-election under a broad-based arrangement.

The united opposition, which is yet to settle on a single candidate, has vowed to make Ruto a one-term president, signalling a do-or-die contest when polls open.

Both sides have intensified early vote mobilisation, holding rallies across the country.

The February 26 by-elections, described as a final litmus test ahead of 2027, saw UDA sweep all four seats, handing the opposition a second defeat in three months.

UDA won the Isiolo South parliamentary seat, the Evurore and Muminji ward elections in Mbeere North, and the West Kabras ward seat in Kakamega.

In Isiolo, Mohamed Tubi beat his elder sister Bina Mohamed of Jubilee with 7,352 votes to her 634, ending a sibling rivalry.

Duncan Muratia won the Evurore contest with 7,853 votes, while Democratic Party’s Albert Kigoro garnered 1,940 votes.

Peterson Njeru carried the Muminji ward for UDA with 3,207 votes, defeating Boniface Kariuki of the Devolution Empowerment Party, who got 2,232 votes.

In West Kabras, Elphas Shalakha emerged victorious with 3,317 votes, dealing the united opposition a significant setback as ODM’s Edward Indimuli and DCP’s Bramwel Wasike failed to secure enough support.

This marks the second time in three months that Kenya Kwanza has defeated the united opposition in by-elections.

Parties in Ruto’s broad-based government previously won 18 of 24 seats in the November 27, 2025, elections, reaffirming the President’s influence on the ground amid opposition criticism over alleged neglect of ordinary Kenyans.

UDA won 12 seats, including the Mbeere North parliamentary seat, which fell vacant after incumbent Geoffrey Ruku was appointed Cabinet Secretary for Public Service. The ruling coalition also clinched the Baringo Senate seat, Malava and Banisa parliamentary seats, and eight ward seats, making 12 wins in 21 areas where it fielded candidates.

Despite the latest by-election victories, Ruto remained magnanimous in his congratulatory remarks, contrasting with his hard-hitting speeches against the opposition during rallies from car rooftops.

“We are firmly on course to building a solid national political party whose vision goes beyond generations as we move Kenya to the first world,” Ruto said on X.

DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua, speaking to residents in Mai Mahiu, Naivasha, avoided commenting on the by-elections, instead reaffirming the united opposition’s mission.

“Our resolve for a better Kenya remains resolute, and no amount of distraction will deter us from our shared vision. United for a purpose, to make Kenya a better place to live, work and thrive. Our dedication is steadfast, and our mission is clear,” he said.

Former Azimio chief campaigner Saitabao Ole Kanchory described the opposition’s defeat as a “disaster,” while hinting at betrayal by opposition supporters in the Mt Kenya region.

“Amkeni murima watatuangusha (wake up, people of the mountain will fail us),” he said on X.

The by-election outcomes have intensified challenges for the united opposition ahead of 2027, with divisions in ODM further complicating the situation.

The party is split, with Nairobi Senator and secretary-general Edwin Sifuna leading the Linda Mwananchi faction, while party leader and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga heads the Linda Ground wing.

Oburu’s team has pledged support for Ruto’s re-election bid, with pre-election agreement talks underway. Sifuna has expressed willingness to join forces with the United Opposition under the leadership of Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Sifuna, leading the rebel ODM wing alongside Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, said opposition leaders agree that Ruto must be defeated in 2027.

“We need an overwhelming repudiation of William Ruto and everything he stands for. It must be overwhelming; we must beat William Ruto by at least five million votes,” he said on February 24 during an interview on NTV’s Fixing the Nation.

“To achieve that overwhelming repudiation, there's a common understanding amongst the population that we must approach this election as a unit. We must be one force against William Ruto.”

With the odds stacked against them, the opposition faces urgency in uniting, including bringing on board leaders such as Jubilee’s Fred Matiang’i and People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, both of whom have indicated presidential ambitions.

Ruto has repeatedly expressed confidence that he will defeat the opposition, citing their lack of a manifesto.

“Mpango yao ni 'Ruto must go.' Na nisipoenda mtadu? Hii 'must go' si tumekuwa tukisikia. Be a bit innovative. Tafuteni sera,” Ruto said during a series of rallies in Westlands on Wednesday.

(Their plan is 'Ruto must go'. And if I don't go, what will you do? We have been hearing this 'must go'. Be a bit innovative. Look for policies)

“I'll deal with you early in the morning. If the opposition has a problem with me, let them leave Kenyans out of it and come for me. I will deal with them.”