ODM factions in epic war to take over Raila bases

ODM rival factions have escalated their power struggle, shifting the contest to the control of political bases long associated with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga (deceased).

With the broader opposition also digging in, Raila’s traditional strongholds are now bracing for an influx of political activity, including the possible emergence of new parties targeting elective seats beyond the presidency.

Within ODM, the camps led by party leader Oburu Oginga and embattled secretary general Edwin Sifuna have gone all out in the battle to inherit Raila’s political turf.

The rivalry threatens to weaken ODM’s leverage in negotiations with President William Ruto’s UDA.

A section of Mt Kenya leaders has been blunt, telling off ODM over its demand for Ruto’s running mate in 2027, a position presently held by Kithure Kindiki.

The Oburu-aligned camp has announced a major ‘Linda Ground’ rally at Ahindi Grounds in Siaya county on Sunday — widely regarded as the heartland of Raila’s political influence.

The meeting’s agenda is two-pronged: to cut Governor James Orengo, one of the rebel leaders, down to size, and to consolidate Luo Nyanza behind Ruto.

But a day before the Siaya rally, Sifuna and Orengo will pitch camp in Kakamega county.

The Sifuna team has announced plans to head to Vihiga after staging rallies in Busia and Kitengela in Kajiado county.

Meanwhile, the Oburu team has already criss-crossed Western and the Coast as it seeks to lock down the bases from what it terms enemy encroachment.

The Coast, Nyanza and Western regions have traditionally voted for Raila.

ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi told the Star their public engagements will span all 47 counties, dismissing claims his side is in competition with Oburu’s faction.

“You will see us going across the country; this movement will be in all the 47 counties in the country,” the Vihiga senator said.

Some observers, however, dismiss the Sifuna-Orengo wave as a passing cloud that will soon fizzle out.

Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana downplayed the current momentum, arguing that the team will eventually return to mainstream ODM.

“Unless Sifuna and his team have proper structures, financing and long-term planning, the rebellion within ODM will fizzle out, and they will soon return to ODM,” Mungatana argued.

Political commentator Meshack Odede posed, “Sifuna’s movement is causing a lot of confusion because Kenyans are not sure where he stands. Is he still in ODM or not?”

Lawmakers allied to the Oburu camp have defended their countrywide rallies, saying they are aimed at reconnecting with grassroots supporters and strengthening party structures ahead of next month’s National Delegates Convention (NDC).

Speaking to the Star, the lawmakers maintained the outreach programme is meant to solidify the party’s base.

“Nobody can ever inherit Raila’s bases; Raila was just an extraordinary person. I think we are holding ODM rallies in all parts of this country,” Kibra MP Peter Orero told The Star.

“We are just trying to reach the counties to sell the ideas to the people and to the delegates. I think the Linda Ground team is going to the counties to meet the delegates because we are approaching elections.”

Orero said ODM’s support across its traditional bastions was built over decades through Raila’s personal sacrifice and ideological stand, arguing that no individual or faction can simply claim ownership of those regions.

Lang’ata MP Felix Oduor described the rallies as routine party engagements.

“Nobody is trying to inherit anyone; we are just making the ground stronger and telling the people that ODM still has its bases and that it is strong in those bases,” he told the Star. 

But according to political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli, the faction perceived to be championing Raila’s ideals will ultimately capture the bases.

“Raila’s bases are going to be captured by whoever is thinking like Raila when he formed ODM,” he said.

“ODM was founded as a street party. What that means is that ODM is a people’s party. Whoever is able to articulate people’s frustrations is the person who will capture ODM.”

The university don added that the Sifuna-Orengo team has received a warm reception from ODM supporters at the grassroots.

“So far, the Sifuna team is able to articulate the people’s philosophy,” he said.

Both sides are keen to demonstrate grassroots dominance, with pundits describing the rallies as a test of political muscle and loyalty.

Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, however, believes the Sifuna wave may not easily fizzle out, particularly in the absence of a unifying figure like Raila.

“One thing is for sure: ODM can’t be held together without Raila Odinga. People have been comparing Edwin Sifuna to Ababu Namwamba, saying his rebellion will fizzle out. Back then, it worked because Raila was alive, but it won’t work now that he is gone,” he said.