Divided Orange as Sifuna, Orengo team open new front

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ODM rebels Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo face critical decisions as they shape a high-stakes 2027 strategy that could make or break their political futures.

At the heart of their gamble is a bold ambition: The party must field its own presidential candidate in 2027.

This comes amid concerns the faction is gravitating toward former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka — a move that has fuelled speculation their plan could be a smokescreen that in the long run will gel into the plans of the broader opposition.

But publicly, the message remains defiant, artfully devised to play on the overarching and rather deceptive go-getting principle that ODM is too big not to gun for State House.

"There is no reason why ODM should not field a presidential candidate, no one has convinced us why we should not have a presidential candidate. Such a big party. We will support our own as the presidential candidate,” Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, touted as one of the rebels, told the Star.

Sifuna has himself alluded to the same manuscript, framing the onslaught as a generational duty,arguing that ODM supremo Raila Odinga did not mentor cowards.

“We are the generation that will reach Canaan as envisaged by the late Raila Odinga and nothing will distract us from this endeavour,” he said.

Yet beneath the rhetoric and the ruse lies a stark political reality.

The party establishment with Oburu Oginga at the helm have a vice-like grip of the key party organs, leaving the outnumbered dissenters politically exposed.

Last week, the party hierarchy, confident they have the support of the rank and file, fired the first salvo by sacking Sifuna as secretary-general, a decision temporarily blocked by the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal.

Even as the legal battle unfolds, the dissidents are girding up their loins for a more unsettling challenge: survival in a shifting political landscape.

On Sunday, February 8, as the team headed to Busia for a feel of the grassroots, they got a taste of the ground with a rather hostile reception in Ugunja, Siaya county.

The hostility underscored the political headwinds Orengo must get ready to face if he is to launch a successful defence of his governor job.

Nyanza, ODM’s bedrock, has by and large embraced President William Ruto following the rapprochement between him and Raila which birthed the broad-based government.

Analysts warn whatever option the faction chooses, the consequences will be grave and far-reaching.

“They can’t (field a presidential candidate), you need a lot of resources. Ruto has a lot of resources, Ruto will wallop them,” Prof Gitile Naitule told the Star on phone.“Their only option is for them to walk to the United Opposition.”

Teaming up with the opposition, in a country riven by ethnic bigotry, could be politically costly and might as well spell the end of their careers

Insiders speculate that Orengo might himself be fronted as the standard-bearer, reviving memories of his disastrous 2007 presidential campaign with the intention of splitting the Nyanza vote to complicate Ruto's reelection plans.

The team’s composition reflects both ambition and complexity.

It includes Sifuna, Osotsi, Orengo, MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba) and Obadiah Barongo (Bomachoge Borabu).

Backing up the more publicly known rebels include Senators Richard Onyonka(Kisii)and Okong'o Omogeni (Nyamira), as well as MPs Wilberforce Oundo (Funyula), Caroli Omondi (Suba South) and Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South).

Although elected under ODM, several MPs in the group — particularly from the Gusii region — publicly back Jubilee deputy leader Fred Matiang’i.

Some recalibrated their loyalties even while Raila was still at the helm.

Among them are Onyonka, Kibagendi and Barongo.

The entry of the group heightened speculation the Sifuna gang could be headed to the opposition.

Caroli has also joined the team — a development that stirred fresh intrigue after he was named Azimio secretary general by Uhuru and Kalonzo two weeks ago

It is worth noting that Kalonzo and Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua have relentlessly courted the Sifuna team.

“Sifuna should not be worried and as part of the Azimio coalition, I invite him to cross over from ODM to Wiper party,” Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said. “He is still going to be elected senator of Nairobi and that’s why I am inviting him.”

Insiders say the dissenters are weighing their options: stick with ODM and attempt to reclaim its ideological core, join a restructured Azimio under Uhuru and Kalonzo, or bolt and launch a new political vehicle altogether.

Some members have hinted that they might form a new party or join an existing one if the attempts to hijack ODM fails.

Campaigning under the banner ‘Linda Wananchi,’ the group has intensified grassroots engagements across the country.

They staged a major rally in Kitengela, Kajiado county, following a well-attended Busia gathering.

Earlier, they held a significant rally in Nairobi’s Dagoretti North constituency and have lined up events in Western, starting in Vihiga, where Osotsi will host them.

Plans are also underway for engagements in Kisii, Kakamega and Bungoma.

“I want to assure you that we are going to fight. A line has been drawn. If you are on our side, you are on our side. If you are on the other side, fight on the other side. But this is not going to stop anytime soon,” Babu said.

Parallel rallies organised by the Oburu camp under the ‘Linda Ground’ banner are unfolding simultaneously, deepening fears of an escalating internal war at a time the party is grappling with legal and political turbulence.

However, the rebels insist that legitimacy will ultimately be determined by the grassroots.

“We are going to the people, we are going to sell the ideals of ODM and Raila Odinga,” Amisi said.

Nyando MP and ODM National Executive Council member Jared Okelosaid the rebel team has no chance in 2027, claiming they are being misled by Uhuru.

The lawmaker said they will rally behind Ruto’s reelection as they prepare to field a presidential candidate after Ruto’s term expires in 2032.

“I want them to know that Ruto defeated us with Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022; he will defeat them even more in 2027. Now we want to work with Ruto so that we can move forward. That is why we are sharpening Mbadi for 2032.”

Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, however, insisted the Sifuna-ledteam has what it takes to win the presidency.

“James Orengo, Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna – one of them is the president of Kenya in 2027,” Kalasinga said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS:

ODM rebels have been opposed to the decision by some party officials to back President William Ruto’s reelection. They have been pushing for disengagement from Ruto’s UDA deal and fielding a presidential candidate in 2027 against Ruto. This is however been vehemently opposed by majority of ODM officials keen on sealing a reelection deal.