AJUOK: How Sifuna, Young Turks will shape 2027

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At the time of filing this piece, the ODM National Executive Committee has just released a blockbuster statement announcing the removal of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as the party’s secretary general.

It was a seven-point statement, but I guarantee you no one remembers the other six! Indeed, every ODM meeting in recent months has been so much about Sifuna, that everyone had simply been waiting for the verdict.

The position of SG is a very consequential but thankless job in any serious political party. On one hand, the holder is the attack dog of the party leader and the party, while on the other, blame lands on his office for any mishaps in the movement.

As if that is not enough, the Kenyan political system makes it nearly impossible for the SG to hold opinions at variance with the party leader. In the case of Sifuna, while Raila lived, he could get away with holding divergent opinions, as on the broad-based government deal, because the ODM boss had been a long-time firebrand and liberation icon who understood what it took to run a truly democratic institution.

After Raila’s death, the cast that took over the party, with the tacit support of the state apparatus, lacked the political wisdom and emotional strength to understand these dynamics.

If you ask me, even without his removal, and after working for the larger-than-life Raila for eight long years as SG, Sifuna was always going to find it difficult to work for lesser politicians. And this could be a salient issue for many other party officials; it’s an entire lifetime from being subordinate to Raila, then finding yourself having to answer to his brother, Oburu Oginga, or one of the State House-friendly senior officials now running riot in the party.

Be that as it may, Kenyan politics is undergoing a generational transition. The dominance of veteran politicians who have defined the country’s political discourse since the 1990s is steadily giving way to a younger, more media-savvy and ideologically assertive class of leaders.

Among the most prominent of this emerging cohort is the Nairobi senator, who has made himself a central figure in this national conversation since being picked by Raila in February 2018 as the party’s SG.

This elevation followed a turbulent two-year period in which Sifuna had tried to wrest the seat from its holder, Ababu Namwamba, in 2016, via an internal party coup.

In the interim period, no one really knows Sifuna’s immediate plans. However, his influence going forward will likely extend beyond party politics into broader national conversationsabout youth participation, governance reform, accountability, coalition politics and the direction of opposition politics in Kenya.

As the country moves toward the 2027 general election and beyond, his role could significantly shape the character of Kenya’s democracy. And this is important, if you consider who else will be key players in this transition in the country’s politics.

At the peak of the Second Liberation struggle in the 1990s, the doyen of opposition politics, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, surrounded himself with a firebrand cast of young politicians, from diverse professional and ethnic backgrounds.

There were top lawyers such as Paul Muite and James Orengo, celebrated members of academia such as Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o and indomitable political lions like Jaramogi’s own son, Raila. The media got accustomed to referring to them collectively as Jaramogi’s Young Turks.

There is no denying that these young firebrands bore the weight of the Second Liberation on their shoulders. As the Jaramogi generation faded away, a new one emerged that would carry the struggle forth.

The regime feared them. They and the government played cat-and-mouse games, involving arrests, hiding and stints into exile. But ultimately, it can be acknowledged that they delivered multiparty democracy and were largely the powers behind the newfound freedom that gave birth to the 2010 Constitution.

But every struggle comes in cycles. Today, there are new threats to multiparty democracy that require a new generation of Young Turks. The events within ODM in the past few months represent part of the threats. Being a party in the minority Azimio coalition, the new power wielders in ODM have readily positioned it as a partner of the ruling UDA, blurring the lines between government and opposition.

To make it worse, the manner in which decisions are today made within ODM confirm that its association with the regime will come with a tendency to ignore set standards, the law and any other rules, as long as they get their way. The removal of Sifuna, as well as the appointment of Oburu as party leader, never met the thresholds set by the party’s constitution, yet both were hurried as if to forestall any legal challenges.

Which is why the emerging breed of new leaders who are no longer at ease in their sponsoring parties must rise up to take the mantle of a second cohort of Young Turks.

I am referring specifically to leaders like Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Raila’s last-born daughter Winnie Odinga, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Nyandarua Senator John Methu. They have fallen out with the parties that acted as their political vehicles in the 2022 election, but hold great promise for a new renaissance in Kenya’s politics.

Youth alone may not necessarily be a compelling factor. In fact, some of the people I might mention in this list appear young but are still beholden to the country’s deeply divisive ethnic brand of politics, but someone like Sifuna has effortlessly transcended ethnicity and established himself as a leader driven by higher ideals and passed with flying colours from Raila’s school of politics. A larger number of reformers with this profile is all it needs to create a critical mass of vibrant young leaders to carry the Third Liberation torch.

As the country approaches future electoral cycles, the question is not whether generational change will occur, but how effectively it will be managed. The rise of Young Turks offers an opportunity to redefine politics, not as a battleground of entrenched rivalries, but as a platform for inclusive, forward-looking governance.

Just like the generation of Jaramogi and Masinde Muliro faded away after playing their part in the Second Liberation, the political generation of President Ruto, Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka and former DP Rigathi Gachagua will soon fade, to be replaced by the new order of the Sifunas, the Babus and the Ndindis.

Incidentally, the first generation of Young Turks was fired by the denial of free speech and the shrinking democratic space. The emerging one today will no doubt be emboldened by the growing culture of unresponsive political parties, beholden to the Big Man syndrome and deaf to the issues of the masses.

At the very least, ODM’s removal of Sifuna is testament to how political parties have grown weary of bold and outspoken leaders. Perhaps this is a good enough reason to spur the new Young Turks into setting the 2027 agenda, basing their desires and ambitions on pro-people issues.

The death of Raila has blurred certain political and ethnic lines. A long-term hate figure in Kenya’s politics, his absence now presents the perfect platform for a younger breed to occupy the space he had dominated for ages.

But there has to be a uniting principle around it. The first generation of Young Turks was inspired by the need to remove Moi’s dictatorship.

Perhaps the Third Liberation cohort will be inspired by the need to bury the country’s ethnic divisions and to equitably empower the masses, a far cry from regimes gone by.

After his sacking, the Sifuna group has announced that it will hit the ground in meet-the-people tours, starting with Kitengela this Sunday. It’s quite a bold way to react to adversity.

The image of continuity will assure their supporters that everything isin control, and there is no room to mourn perceived losses. At any rate, this was always coming, and a large part of the base had primed itself for impact. Whatever adjustments are needed, they must find the caravan already on the move.

A lot more movements are yet to happen within the political parties. For instance, ODM without Raila will gradually weaken and end up as a tool for negotiating only Luo political interests. Even so, the party, without Baba’s domineering figure, will not enjoy its super-grip even among the Luo.

The actions of its current leaders have already indicated a lack of foresight and absence of strategy. I think it will haemorrhage support and will end up competing with small parties, independents and the ruling UDA in its own bases.

While this is going on, the young crop of politicians currently defying their parties is poised to play a decisive role in shaping in the 2027 polls. As representatives of a demographic that constitutes the majority of the electorate, they are uniquely positioned to mobilise youth voters, redefine campaign messaging and reshape coalition politics. As an alternative to the old order, this breed has its work cut out.

I submit that the young leaders will significantly influence voter turnout. By speaking directly to issues such as unemployment, cost of living, digital innovation and governance accountability, they are likely to energise first-time voters and politically disillusioned youth. Increased youth participation could alter traditional voting patterns and reduce the dominance of purely ethnic mobilisation strategies that have defined our politics for generations.

Secondly, young politicians are expected to shift the tone of campaigns toward issue-based politics. Their emphasis on transparency, economic reform and institutional accountability may compel major parties to articulate clearer policy platforms rather than relying solely on historical loyalties and personality-driven politics.

Third, they will play a strategic role in coalition-building. In a political environment in which alliances determine electoral outcomes, young reform-oriented leaders could act as negotiators, bridge-builders and agenda-setters within emerging political formations. Their bargaining power will likely increase as parties compete to attract the youth vote.

In a nutshell, the 2027 election is likely to reflect a growing generational shift. While established political figures will remain influential, young politicians will shape voter enthusiasm, campaign narratives and coalition strategies, making them central actors in determining Kenya’s political direction beyond 2027.

I am not sure if any of the Young Turks is ready to run for president yet, especially in the new system where the presidential candidate and the running mate do not have the fallback position of also running for MP, which the previous constitution allowed.

Not many within the Young Turk space may be willing to gamble with a presidential election that may lead to sitting out for five years before attempting a return, but if they are bold enough, this is their time!

The ruthlessness with which people like Sifuna and Babu have been treated by the old guard in their political parties must be enough encouragement to not only find new political vehicles for their ambitions, but also to recalibrate politics in a manner that brings the youthful touch to it.