OPINION: Food security requires action, not empty granaries

When President William Ruto assumed leadership, one of his most significant policy shifts was to invest in sustainable agriculture. The government reversed decades of emphasis on subsidizing consumption and instead focused on subsidizing production.

Under the Ministry of Agriculture, millions of bags of fertilizer and improved seeds were distributed to farmers at reduced cost and made accessible through digital platforms that registered over six million farmers for targeted support. This move made planting easier and more affordable across the country.

At the same time, the promise to expand irrigation acreage reached a level of ambition Kenya has not seen before. Dams are being built, canals dug, and irrigation schemes expanded so that farmers do not have to wait on seasonal rains to plant.

These interventions have increased production compared with previous years and strengthened resilience against climate uncertainty.

Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture projected maize production could hit an estimated 94.4 million 50‑kilogram bags annually, based on over 2.7 million hectares under cultivation and favourable weather.

The government also instructed the National Cereals and Produce Board to purchase one million bags of maize for the strategic food reserve to safeguard against future shortfalls.

The outcomes of these efforts are significant for Kenya’s food security. According to official statistics, Kenya produced approximately 4,028,320 metric tonnes of dry maize in 2024, equivalent to roughly 44.7 million 90‑kg bags, while total maize consumption was about 2.72 million metric tonnes, meaning production exceeded domestic consumption and reduced reliance on imports.

However, the country still imported about 214,067 metric tonnes of maize in 2024, showing that even strong outputs do not eliminate the need for careful supply planning and market interventions.

Rice is another area where irrigation expansion and government support have paid dividends. The Mwea Irrigation Scheme and surrounding areas recorded a combined harvest of 160,270 metric tonnes in 2024, a record output that contributes to national food availability and supports rural employment.

Despite this, Kenya’s annual rice consumption is estimated at about 1.3 million metric tonnes, while domestic production contributes only around 264,000–290,000 metric tonnes, covering roughly 20 percent of national demand.

This leaves a substantial deficit of about 1.0 million metric tonnes that must be met through imports or other supply strategies.

On the economic front, agriculture’s contribution to Kenya’s economy rose to over 22 percent of gross domestic product in 2024, reflecting increased production, stronger markets, and rising incomes for farmers.

These gains are commendable and reflect serious effort. They show that when the state commits resources, reforms delivery systems, and provides accessible inputs to farmers, production climbs and rural economies respond. Smallholder farmers, who produce the bulk of Kenya’s food, benefited from reduced fertilizer costs that dropped from around Sh7,500 per bag to roughly Sh2,500 under the subsidy programme. This helped drive yields and brought down input costs that once crippled rural producers.

But even as production grows, structural realities in Kenya’s economy and demographic changes present serious challenges that must be addressed through planning and strategic policy.

Kenya’s population continues to grow rapidly, and urbanization is reshaping both demand and supply dynamics. Young, educated Kenyans increasingly migrate to urban centres seeking employment and opportunities. Many counties that were once predominantly rural now display the characteristics of urban towns, with services, housing developments, and high consumption demand.

These shifts mean more people are buying food in markets rather than producing it on farms. The rise of a middle class with purchasing power adds to this trend, creating sustained and rising demand for food.

The example of rice consumption highlights this mismatch between local production and market demand. Even with improved local output, Kenya produces only about 20 percent of its annual rice consumption, leaving a large gap. The government’s long-term plan is to eventually reduce rice imports once irrigation projects and production capacity expand sufficiently.

But consumption growth driven by urbanization and demographic trends means production increases will take time before they fully close the gap. In the meantime, Kenya must ensure food is available at affordable prices. Strategic and targeted imports serve this purpose without undermining domestic production; they act as a bridge while local output scales up.

At the same time, land fragmentation based on customary inheritance continues to limit opportunities for large-scale farming. Smaller plots constrain mechanized agriculture and reduce economies of scale, making it harder for farmers to increase production even when inputs are available. This structural challenge underlines the importance of irrigation expansion, technology adoption, and market access as part of a broader agricultural strategy.

Global disruptions also affect local food costs and production inputs. In recent years, shocks such as the war in Ukraine drove up prices of fertilizer and fuel worldwide. Kenya responded by waiving import duties on key food items and rolling out its fertilizer subsidy programme. These efforts helped reverse earlier declines in food production and reduced import pressures.

This balance between supporting production and stabilizing markets is critical. No single policy lever ensures food availability for all households. Kenya’s farmers must be supported to produce at higher and sustainable levels, but the government must also recognize that production alone will not instantly eliminate market deficits. Importing food strategically is a practical measure that maintains supply stability, prevents price shocks, and allows farmers and markets to adapt to changing demand patterns.

Some will argue that imports hurt local producers. That argument holds weight when production conditions and market protections are poorly managed. What distinguishes a strategic import policy from a careless one is timing, scale, and alignment with production trends.

If imports are timed to fill gaps that local production cannot cover, while domestic programmes continue to expand output, all actors benefit. Buyers get affordable food, farmers receive fair prices, and overall food security improves.

Kenya’s efforts in irrigation expansion illustrate a long-term vision for reducing import dependence. Projects like Galana Kulalu and investments in other schemes are laying the groundwork for larger production volumes in future seasons. These initiatives have the potential to transform rural economies, create jobs, and increase productivity across multiple food crops. Investment in water infrastructure, reservoirs, and canals has enabled farmers to cultivate land year-round and reduce reliance on seasonal rains.

Progress in expanding irrigated acreage demonstrates that with sustained commitment, production capacity can grow significantly.

The state must also deepen investment in climate-smart agriculture to ensure that increased production can withstand ecological risks such as droughts, floods, and pests. Soil conservation, water harvesting, and high-yield resilient seed varieties will be necessary as climate patterns change.

The legal affirmation of farmers’ rights to share local seeds through community networks adds another dimension to strengthening local production systems and could support resilience and biodiversity at the grassroots.

Kenya is at an important moment in its food security journey. The progress made under President Ruto’s leadership—particularly in subsidizing inputs, expanding irrigation, and boosting production—is commendable. These actions have lifted production volumes and strengthened rural productivity.

But the government must also plan for the realities of demand driven by population growth and urbanization. Food production growth, planning, and targeted imports must work in harmony.

Strategic imports today can safeguard supply, stabilize markets, and support households as local production scales up. Planning with clear data, realistic timelines, and targeted interventions will keep food available, affordable, and accessible for all Kenyans.