Two paths, one party: Inside ODM’s growing split

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing one of the most consequential moments in its history as deep divisions emerge within its top leadership.

The party is divided over whether it should continue supporting President William Ruto’s administration or break away and chart an independent political path ahead of next year’s general election.

The rift, which has increasingly spilled into the public arena, has split the party into two main rival camps.

One faction is pushing for sustained engagement in the broad-based government formed between ODM and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), arguing that partnership in government offers the party relevance and influence.

The opposing camp insists that ODM risks losing its identity if it remains tethered to the ruling coalition and should even filed its own presidential candidate next year.

The debate comes even as UDA has formally cleared Ruto, who is also the party leader, to enter structured negotiations with ODM aimed at crafting a coalition agreement ahead of the elections.

ODM’s Central Committee has indicated that the party would open structured negotiations with other political formations, including UDA, as it positions itself strategically for the upcoming electoral cycle.

At the centre of the internal wrangles are calls by some leaders to have the party convene a National Delegates Congress (NDC), which they argue is the only legitimate forum that can determine its future direction.

Over the weekend, leaders allied to this position said the NDC should decide whether ODM remains in a broad-based government with UDA or charts an independent course.

However, ODM party leader Oburu Odinga has maintained that the party will deepen its relationship with UDA, dismissing calls from the faction led by Sifuna to disengage from the government.

Oburu has consistently argued that ODM’s future lies in partnership rather than opposition politics.

Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi has publicly rejected the notion that ODM leaders can be coerced into backing Ruto’s re-election bid.

“I must sit down and understand and decide on my own. Why is someone trying to force us to support Ruto?” he asked.

Osotsi said several party officials are serving on interim capacities, insisting the leadership question can only be settled at the NDC.

“Oburu is interim party leader and the plan was that we have national elections. And as Deputy Party leader, I am not scared of elections,” he said.

Suba South MP Caroli Omondi said two distinct groups had clearly emerged within ODM, each pursuing a different political vision.

“There is one group that has already decided to take up the party leadership, they even have a line up. Elections have not been called but they have already said these are the results of that election,” Omondi said.

He accused the same group of committing to working with UDA while adopting a hardline stance against dissenting voices within the party.

“They have made up their minds they will work with UDA, they have made up their mind anybody who opposes them will be fought and crashed,” he said, warning that “there is going to be a bigger storm coming.”

Omondi cautioned that ODM risks drifting away from its founding ideals and the legacy of its longtime leader Raila Odinga.

“We are moving away from our purpose as a party. We are moving away from the lessons that Raila Odinga left us with, already part of the leadership has made up their minds on these issues. Let them go ahead, we wish them well,” he said.

Narok Senator Ledama Olekina dismissed claims that ODM is on the brink of a split, insisting the internal debate reflects a party trying to survive in a shifting political landscape.

“ODM isn’t splitting. It’s survival mode. That’s why my friends are pushing back hard. Nairobi politics does not control ODM’s future,” he said.

Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino draw much of their influence from cosmopolitan and liberal city voters, particularly in Nairobi, Olekina said.

Former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, though not a member of ODM, argued that the party appears to have abandoned the 10-Point Agenda that underpinned its cooperation with UDA.

“They have abandoned the 10-point agenda and they are busy looking at how they will share power,” Malala, who is now the deputy party leader of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) said.

The 10-Point Agenda is a framework agreed between Ruto and the late Raila to guide cooperation between UDA and ODM and steer key governance and reform priorities ahead of the 2027 elections.

Critics within ODM argue that the slow or selective implementation of the agenda undermines the rationale for continued partnership with the government.

Despite the growing criticism, Oburu has maintained that ODM will no longer operate as an opposition party, insisting that its role as a partner in government will extend beyond 2027 under the broad-based arrangement.

That position has been sharply challenged by Siaya Governor James Orengo, a key ally of Sifuna, who has renewed calls for ODM to field its own presidential candidate next year.

Orengo has cautioned against entering into any coalition talks with UDA before the full implementation of the 10-Point Agenda.

“We cannot go into any agreement before the conditions are met,” Orengo said over the weekend at a rally in Nairobi.

Sifuna, Osotsi, Babu and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi attended the rally.

The group reiterated calls for an NDC to elect new party leaders, with Amisi launching a scathing attack on Oburu’s leadership.

“He is steering the bus but cannot drive, he does not know where the brakes are and he does not know where Baba was headed,” Amisi said.

Speaking in Kisii over the weekend, Oburu, accompanied by Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati, chairperson Gladys Wanga and Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, accused Orengo of sowing division among younger party leaders and undermining his authority.

“As a party leader, I do not want to lose focus on the fundamentals left by our deceased leader, regarding our engagement in the broad-based arrangement,” Oburu said.

Junet expressed confidence that the looming wrangles would be resolved at the anticipated NDC.