Poll: 49 per cent of Kenyans believe the economy will deteriorate in 2026

Pessimism about Kenya’s economic future is rising sharply, with nearly half of the population expecting conditions to worsen next year, a new Infotrak opinion poll reveals.

The survey, conducted in December 2025, shows that 49 per cent of Kenyans believe the economy will deteriorate in 2026, making it the leading source of national concern.

This anxiety spans the country but is most pronounced in Central Kenya, where 67 per cent of residents expect a downturn.

The Coast follows at 57 per cent, Western Kenya at 55 per cent, Nairobi at 53 per cent, and Eastern at 42 per cent.

Nyanza and the Rift Valley recorded lower but still notable concern, at 39 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.

Personal finances are also a major worry. Thirty-four per cent of respondents fear their own financial situation will worsen next year, reflecting continued pressure from high living costs, taxation, and limited income growth.

Anxiety over personal finances is highest in Western Kenya at 56 per cent and the Coast at 51 per cent.

Nairobi and the Rift Valley each reported 37 per cent, followed by Eastern at 35 per cent, North Eastern at 33 per cent, Nyanza at 23 per cent, and Central at 20 per cent.

Business owners are feeling uneasy as well. Sixteen per cent of Kenyans believe their businesses will struggle in 2026.

Concern is highest in the Rift Valley (34 per cent) and Nyanza (28 per cent), while Eastern Kenya recorded 19 per cent. Nairobi and Central regions reported 11 per cent each, highlighting fears of lower consumer spending and tighter operating conditions.

Employment insecurity adds another layer to the national gloom.

Fifteen per cent of respondents worry they may not find a job or could be retrenched, reflecting ongoing challenges with unemployment, particularly among young people and private-sector workers.

Climate-related risks also contribute to pessimism. Six per cent of respondents cited the threat of an imminent drought, which could affect food security, inflation, and rural livelihoods.

The poll was conducted on December 19–20, 2025, through Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) with 1,000 adults aged 18 and above.

The sample, based on Population Proportionate to Size using the 2019 Census, covered all 47 counties and eight regions.

Data were weighted where necessary to ensure national representativeness.

The survey has a margin of error of ±3.10 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level. Analysis was carried out using SPSS version 27.

Overall, the results portray a nation entering 2026 with deep economic anxiety, driven by fears of a worsening economy, shrinking personal finances, and uncertain business and employment prospects.