UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement leaders when they signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to formalise and strengthen their collaboration in March/FILE
The year 2025 will be remembered as a profoundly transformative period in Kenyan politics, a period in which country’s political trajectory took a decisive turn.
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It was a year marked by transitions, unexpected realignments and defining moments that reshaped both the tone and substance of national governance.
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Perhaps the year was marked most poignantly by the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025.
Raila, affectionately called Baba, had been a central figure in multiparty politics for decades, shaping national discourse and driving constitutional reform.
His passing triggered widespread national mourning, highlighted by solemn funeral proceedings in Bondo and a state funeral that drew political elites from across the spectrum.
President William Ruto described Raila as “a once-in-a-generation leader” and declared seven days of national mourning.
“He understood that leadership is not about personal pride, but about preserving the Republic… When our nation faced turbulence last year and I reached across the political divide, Baba was the first to help steady the ship of state,” Ruto said on Mashujaa Day.
Raila’s death also exposed the deep political vacuum within the Orange Democratic Movement, the party he led since its inception in 2005.
Party members and supporters reflected on the challenge of maintaining unity and direction without his commanding presence.
Debates intensified over who would inherit his political mantle, with factions within ODM grappling between continuing his legacy and pursuing new directions.
There were warnings that the party could be swamped by self-serving interests now that its unifying leader was gone.
Political commentator Fred Sasia said one of the most defining features of 2025, even before Raila’s passing, was his decision to enter a political agreement with Ruto’s government.
In March 2025, Raila signed a 10-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ruto, setting out a “broad-based government” collaboration aimed at addressing national concerns such as unemployment, electoral reform, judicial independence and national cohesion.
“This unprecedented cooperation between the long-standing opposition and the ruling coalition was a pragmatic attempt to stabilise the political climate after widespread anti-government protests in 2024,” Sasia said.
After Raila’s death, ODM leaders reaffirmed their commitment to this working relationship with Ruto’s administration, framing it as part of honouring his last political directive.
At the same time, critics both inside and outside ODM, cautioned against such a close alignment with the ruling coalition. Some party members warned that too close a relationship with Ruto could erode ODM’s independence and legacy.
Sasia said such tension highlighted the delicate balance ODM now faces; preserving Raila’s enduring influence while navigating a new era of coalition politics.
As Kenya heads into 2026, several political figures are poised to play defining roles in shaping the country’s direction as the nation prepares for the high-stakes 2027 general election.
Political analyst Joseph Mutua said the political landscape remains dynamic, driven by coalition realignments, post-Raila transitions and the rise of new voices.
“Ruto will continue to dominate Kenyan politics as the incumbent head of state. His ability to navigate coalition politics, especially the broad-based government arrangement forged with ODM will influence not just policy direction but also electoral calculations,” Mutua said.
“Ruto’s outreach to diverse constituencies, coupled with ongoing negotiations with other political leaders, positions him as the central figure in Kenya’s politics heading into 2026.”
He noted that Oburu Oginga, now leader of ODM following his brother Raila’s death, is set to be another influential figure.
Charged with stabilising ODM after a period of uncertainty and internal debate, Mutua said Oburu’s leadership will determine whether the party remains cohesive within the broad-based government or splinters into rival factions as it prepares for 2027.
“His decisions on alliances and party strategy will have ripple effects across the opposition landscape.”
Within ODM itself, leaders like Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino are emerging as significant voices.
Both have taken more critical stances on the party’s cooperation with Ruto’s administration. Their influence will be important if ODM recalibrates its stance or forms new political partnership.
The daughter of Raila Winnie Odinga’s vocal stance on preserving ODM’s identity and resisting “behind-closed-doors” negotiations over the party’s future direction signals she could be politically significant in 2026.
During the ODM@20 celebrations, she warned against political brokers attempting to “sell” the party or dilute its heritage, and urged grassroots members, especially the youth, to actively participate in shaping the party’s future.
Analysts note that Winnie represents both continuity with her father’s legacy and a potential new energy within ODM, especially among younger supporters and women in politics.
On the opposition front, Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Rigathi Gachagua (DCP) and Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K) and former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, are positioning themselves as alternative voices to the ruling coalition.
Sasia said their ability to galvanise support across regions and build a formidable challenger bloc will be crucial as 2026 unfolds and momentum builds toward the next general election.
Although Uhuru Kenyatta retired as president in 2022, he has not retreated entirely from political life.
Throughout 2025 he has made several high‑profile interventions and public statements, from encouraging youth activism to engaging directly with his party, the Jubilee Party, signalling that he still intends to be a voice in national political discourse.
He has urged young Kenyans to engage actively in governance and defend their rights, emphasising that the next generation must take charge of the country’s future.
“This call for youth empowerment has both rallied supporters and drawn criticism from some government allies who accuse him of stirring political tension,” Mutua said.
Mutua highlighted that one of Uhuru’s most important moves in 2025 was his effort to reclaim leadership of the Jubilee Party, a process that culminated in a court ruling validating his control over the party’s leadership structure.
“This victory gave him renewed authority within a national political vehicle that could be relevant in alliance politics leading up to 2027.”
He noted that Uhuru has also begun to voice more direct criticism of the current Ruto administration, challenging some of its policy directions, including social‑economic reforms and how governance issues are being handled.
Looking ahead into 2026, Uhuru’s continued visibility and intervention in national politics are likely to shape coalition alignments and youth and grassroots mobilisation.
Matiang’i, endorsed by Uhuru as Jubilee Party’s 2027 presidential candidate, is growing national profile, making him a key player in broader electoral calculations, especially in building alliances.
In 2025, Gachagua continued to be a prominent and polarising figure in Kenyan politics after his dramatic exit from the office of Deputy President and the ruling administration.
No longer in government, Gachagua has positioned himself as a vocal opposition leader, channelling dissatisfaction among the electorates, particularly in Mt Kenya region, over perceived marginalisation by Ruto’s government.
Throughout 2025, Gachagua has actively called for a united opposition front, seeking to bridge forces with other key opposition leaders including Kalonzo, Wamalwa, Matiang’i to present a single presidential ticket capable of ousting Ruto in 2027.
He stressed the importance of unity, warning against splinter groups that could dilute the opposition’s strength and asserting that attempts to divide the coalition would be rejected by the electorate.
Sasia said Gachagua is likely to remain a key influencer in shaping opposition strategy and national political debates in 2026.
“By advocating for a united opposition coalition and sharpening focus on anti-incumbency sentiment, he may help define the agenda and candidate selection process ahead of the 2027 polls.
Whether he emerges as a presidential contender himself or as a significant power-broker, his ability to mobilise voters, especially in Mt Kenya and allied regions, could be pivotal in determining the strength of the opposition challenge.
Regional leaders and rising actors such as Gladys Wanga, Johnson Sakaja, George Natembeya and others will influence grassroots political dynamics.
Their fortunes in 2026 will shape the broader competitive landscape as Kenya prepares for the pivotal elections in 2027.
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