Support for Broad-Based government doubles in six months, TIFA Survey shows

President William Ruto and Raila Odinga sign a political pact at KICC on March 7, 2025. PHOTO | PCS

Support for the broad-based government arrangement between President William Ruto and associates of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has climbed significantly over the past six months, according to a new national survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).

The survey found that approval for the political coalition rose from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent by November, indicating a marked shift in public sentiment. 

The TIFA poll, which tracks evolving public opinion on the controversial partnership, also showed a decline in opposition to the arrangement.

While resistance peaked at 64 per cent in August, it dropped to 48 per cent in the latest findings — the lowest level recorded across the three survey periods.

Analysts suggest that earlier opposition was heavily influenced by memories of violent protests and their suppression in June and July. 

The survey was conducted across nine zones ; • Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, Western Data collection  and involved face-to-face (i.e., household-based interviews).

The interviews were conducted in Kiswahili (mainly) and English involving a sample size of 2,053 respondents with a margin of error +/- 2.16 %.

The broad-based government was officially formed on March 7, 2025, when President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga signed a memorandum of understanding at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC).

This agreement marked the beginning of a coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), aiming to address national challenges such as debt, corruption, and political instability.

Prior to this, on July 11, 2024, President Ruto had dismissed nearly his entire cabinet in response to widespread protests against proposed tax hikes and government corruption. This move was part of efforts to form a more inclusive government.

President Ruto said Kenyans stand to gain more from the broad-based government as opposed to a divided country along ethnic lines.

The latest TIFA survey was conducted just weeks before Raila Odinga’s death on October 15 while receiving medical care abroad.

Even prior to his passing, internal debates within ODM and among his supporters about the party’s position ahead of the 2027 general election had emerged, reflecting broader tensions about the future of the coalition.

According to TIFA researchers, the increase in support suggests that as the broad-based government concept has matured and initial public scepticism faded, more Kenyans have either accepted or warmed to the idea.

Nonetheless, nearly half of the population continues to express reservations, highlighting lingering divisions over the political arrangement.