Why Raila’s loyal, once-sold strongholds are up for grabs

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in October has unleashed a political reconfiguration, leaving his long-established strongholds suddenly exposed to fierce competition from outside parties and internal wrangles.

For decades, Raila stood at the centre of some of the country’s most loyal voting blocs—Nyanza, parts of Western Kenya, the Coast and urban informal settlements.

Now, weeks after his death, the once-solid political terrain he commanded appears up for grabs, generating both anxiety and opportunity for politicians as the country edges closer to the 2027 General Election. 

Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement is also confronting an identity crisis.

Without its founding leader, ODM appears divided between those advocating cooperation with President William Ruto’s broad-based government and loyalists determined to maintain the party’s traditional opposition stance.

The absence of a unifying voice is most acutely felt in Nyanza, long considered the party’s impenetrable bastion.

Once tightly coordinated campaign networks have loosened and leaders who previously operated under Raila’s shadow are now charting their personal political futures.

This fragmentation has created rare openings for forces that, for decades, could not make any meaningful inroads into Raila’s bases.

Ruto has intensified his charm offensive in Raila’s former territories.

His administration has doubled down on targeted development initiatives, strategic alliances with local leaders, and symbolic political gestures designed to signal openness to regions historically distrustful of his political camp.

Political commentator Joseph Mutua has said Ruto is going “all-out” to woo ODM constituencies at a moment when they are most vulnerable.

“President William Ruto, the leader of the ruling party UDA, is leaving nothing to chance in wooing ODM to his side,” Mutua told the Star.

“He is capitalising on the political agreement he had previously signed with Raila Odinga that paved the way for the broad-based government.”

Mutua points to Ruto’s remarks during Raila’s state burial—where he stated that ODM would either be in the next government or form the next government—as evidence of the President’s long-game strategy.

“And during the celebration to mark ODM’s 20th anniversary, the President reiterated that apart from his being a founder member and former deputy party leader of ODM, he was a key pillar of Raila,” Mutua said.

These moves are widely interpreted as attempts to pry open Raila’s support bases by presenting Ruto as a political heir of sorts — an idea generating controversy within ODM and across Raila’s loyal support networks.

Political analyst Fred Sasia argues that the speed with which Raila’s political house has begun to destabilise is a direct result of ODM’s—notably Raila’s—failure to cultivate a clear successor.

“His sudden departure left behind no clear succession plan, nor a well-mentored heir to inherit his extensive political machinery,” Sasia said.

“For years, the leaders within his inner circle appeared unprepared for a future without him.”

This oversight, Sasia says, has now sparked a scramble for control across Raila’s traditional support bases.

“The ongoing skirmishes within ODM are worsening the situation, effectively placing Raila’s once-solid support bloc on offer to the highest bidder,” he adds.

In Sasia’s assessment, what is unfolding mirrors a family left without its patriarch.

“In his absence, supporters have found themselves politically orphaned. And much like in a family where children lose a parent, the ‘uncles and aunties’ have emerged—each offering promises yet ultimately seeking to reposition these supporters for their own gain.

”Prominent scholar Makau Mutua has dismissed the notion that Raila’s political influence can be easily—or ever—replicated.“No one—and I mean nobody—can or will inherit Raila Odinga,” Mutua wrote in a strongly worded statement on social media.

“Those who aspire to his stature will have to work as hard as he did—and for as long—to become towering political figures. Great leadership isn’t ginned up as if in a microwave.”

Mutua’s assessment resonates deeply in Nyanza, where Raila’s political influence was more than electoral.

It was cultural, historical and deeply personal. From his multiple detentions to decades of opposition activism, Raila embodied a liberation narrative unparalleled in modern Kenyan politics.

This made him not just a candidate but a symbol—one whose legacy no emerging leader is currently equipped to inherit.

Among the subregions of Raila’s political empire, Nyanza stands out as the epicentre of current contestation.

Counties such as Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori have long delivered overwhelming margins for Raila and ODM. In the 2022 elections, the region produced some of the highest vote percentages for any candidate nationwide.

But with Raila gone, local leaders are reconfiguring allegiances. Some are embracing the national government for development benefits; others are rallying to protect ODM’s legacy.

Several emerging politicians are quietly positioning themselves as potential regional kingpins.Still, observers caution that none has yet demonstrated the moral authority, liberation credentials, or broad appeal that Raila commanded.

Beyond Nyanza, the areas most affected by Raila’s absence are Western Kenya and the Coast —regions where he built strong but not unbreakable coalitions.

In Western Kenya, Busia county delivered close to 80 per cent support for Raila in 2022, while other counties such as Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma also leaned heavily toward him.

Without Raila’s unifying influence, however, local leaders are now drifting toward various national formations depending on their personal ambitions and state incentives.

A similar recalibration is unfolding along the Coast.For two decades, Raila enjoyed overwhelming support in Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta—support grounded in his advocacy around land rights, devolution and redress of coastal marginalisation.

But with his death, the region appears poised to redefine its political trajectory.In a major political development, the Mijikenda Kaya Elders have announced plans to unveil a Coast-based political party in January.

The elders said they are close to identifying a regional political kingpin who will advance coastal interests at the national level.Mijikenda Kaya Elders coordinator Tsuma Kombe said the Coast now feels politically “orphaned”.

“We supported Raila Odinga because he walked closely with our leaders, including Karisa Maitha,” he said.

Now that Raila is gone, we feel politically orphaned. It is time for us, as the Coast people, to come together and define our own path.

”Elder Tinga Kalu confirmed that the new coastal party has already been registered. The launch is set for January. This party will help us bargain better at the national level. Kenya is a free country, and our people deserve an equal share of the national cake,” he said.

The emergence of a regional party could dramatically shift alliances in the Coast—potentially weakening ODM’s presence while introducing new dynamics in national coalition-building.

One of Raila’s most overlooked constituencies was the urban poor. In 2022, he won approximately 57 per cent of the Nairobi vote, dominating in constituencies such as Kibra, Ruaraka, Embakasi East and Dagoretti North.

Raila’s urban appeal stemmed from his long-standing image as a populist champion of the marginalised and an advocate of social justice.

But with Raila gone, urban voters—especially youth and informal settlement residents—are reassessing their allegiances.

Many are now evaluating which political formation best aligns with their daily struggles: unemployment, housing, cost of living and access to public services.

These shifting sentiments make Nairobi and other major towns battlegrounds ripe for competitive campaigns.Raila’s death has not only left his supporters searching for direction but has also opened up new competitive frontiers across the country.