NERIMA: ODM unity post Raila rare in Kenya’s power landscape

Across the world, political parties are the backbone of democratic systems. Strong parties outlive individual leaders. They provide structure, stability and continuity in governance.

In the United States, the Democratic and Republican parties, each over a century old, demonstrate the enduring power of institutions built on ideology, organisation and shared purpose rather than the whims of a single personality.

Similarly, in Europe, Germany’s Social Democratic Party and the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party have shaped politics for generations. They survived changes in leadership while maintaining their core principles.

These mature party systems demonstrate how institutions, rather than individuals, sustain the lifeline of democracy. Leaders emerge, rise and retire, but the party machinery continues to function.

Barack Obama, for example, rose from relative obscurity to become the president of the US in 2008 because the Democratic Party’s structures could identify talent, mobilise millions of voters and build broad coalitions.

Kenya, however, presents a very different picture. Political parties here often exist on a much shorter timeline; their lifeline is tied more to personalities and immediate election cycles than to lasting principles.

ODM, which marked its 20th anniversary last weekend, is a case study. The party now faces internal strain following the death of long-time leader Raila Odinga. Celebrations of the party’s anniversary highlighted divisions within, murmurings over succession, and uncertainty about the party’s direction.

Within the Orange party, loyalty appears to shift according to regional interests rather than ideology. Leaders in Central Nyanza emphasise protection of the party’s historical mission, while their counterparts in South Nyanza signal a desire for new leadership.

Some even suggest aligning with President William Ruto in 2027. This fragility raises the question of whether ODM can survive as a true institution or whether it would collapse.

This pattern is not unique to ODM, however. The Democracy for Citizens Party, launched by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, exemplifies a recurring theme whereby parties often emerge from political ruptures rather than a consistent ideology.

While branded as people-centred, DCP’s rapid formation appears to be tailored to the 2027 election cycle.

Looking back, Kenya has seen many parties rise and fall like shooting stars. Kanu dominated for 40 years, only to eventually falter. Narc won in 2002 but quickly lost cohesion. PNU struggled to survive a single election cycle.

Jubilee, despite securing more than seven million votes in 2017, fractured. National Super Alliance (Nasa) collapsed after the handshake in 2018.

In most cases, parties fade when their founders exit the political stage. Few have a clear ideology, and fewer still build lasting institutions. Instead, many serve as seasonal election vehicles, revived only when an election approaches.

Statistics highlight the precarious lifeline of Kenyan parties. Nearly 60 per cent of registered parties lack functional offices, and fewer than 10 per cent maintain consistent policy agendas. Internal democracy is weak, party institutions are fragile and more than 40 per cent of elected officials switch parties during their careers.

This weak institutional foundation means political loyalty is often transactional, tied to access to power rather than shared vision or principle.

The short lifeline of political parties has consequences for democracy. Without strong institutions, parties cannot effectively groom their leadership, debate ideas, or hold those in power to account.

For Kenya to strengthen democracy, parties must develop a longer lifeline. This requires investing in institutions that endure beyond founders, committing to clear principles, and cultivating internal leadership.

Only then can political parties transition from being mere election vehicles to becoming true pillars of democracy, capable of sustaining governance, shaping ideas, and serving citizens over the long term, as seen in mature democracies worldwide.

Nerima is programme manager, political accountability in state institutions at Kenya Human Rights Commission