KANYADUDI: Tricky choices as Ruto, Gachagua cobble coalitions for 2027

The impact has had dramatic effects on the existing political relationships of the key players. President William Ruto had to consolidate the new government under the broad-based arrangement to help deliver on his campaign pledges.

The opposition leaders took a while to acclimatise to the absence of their eminent leader, Raila Odinga, whose party ODM joined Ruto’s UDA. They had to contend with the entry of Gachagua in the opposition ranks whereupon he immediately staked claim to the helm of its leadership. This created discomfort among the Azimio brigade who considered Kalonzo their natural successor to Raila.

Then in a cruel twist of fate, the father of opposition politics in Kenya passed away in India while undergoing treatment. The world joined Kenya in elaborate funeral that intensely lasted for 10 days but continues to attract delegations to his Opoda farm in Siaya county.

The sudden demise of Raila has placed the nation in unfamiliar political territory since 1997. For the first time in decades, elections will be held without him in the driving seat directly or indirectly.

As the 2027 election draws closer, new alliances and political pacts are expected to emerge. They are likely to be strategic and not the run-off-the-mill regional and ethnic unions.

The relentless quest for swing votes will determine how each of the competing camps make their moves. The opposition would entice new players by promising key government positions in the event of electoral victory. On the other hand, Ruto will most likely deploy the tactic of new government appointments to retain and expand his current base.

In the absence of Raila, the man to beat is Ruto. Three other top tier leaders have to contend with his unrivalled political acumen. Kalonzo Musyoka has been in Kenya’s presidential campaigns since 2007.

His first attempt was as the candidate of ODM-Kenya, which later changed to Wiper Democratic Movement. Curiously, he was taking advantage of the wiper moniker which was attributed to him during the 2010 constitutional referendum. The tag came along with water melon which meant that he was neither anti or pro the new constitution.

During the subsequent elections of 2013 and 2017, he became the running mate to Raila but lost to the duo of Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto. In the last general elections, he gave way to Martha Karua in the Azimio orbit but still retained a prominent spot beside Raila.

Kalonzo ranks as the senior most of the political leaders in the united opposition movement. While fortune has not favoured him with charisma and the necessary resources, he has been consistent within the camp of opposition comrades.

This is with the exception of the grand coalition government under Mwai Kibaki and Raila as premier. His Kamba community has stood with him during these periods and this has greatly boosted Raila’s chances at the presidential contests. Only Alfred Mutua, Kivutha Kibwana and Charity Ngilu have been able to chart their paths outside of Kalonzo’s armpit.

Unfortunately, Kalonzo has never made efforts to endear himself to the larger Raila constituency. It is clear he is unlikely to inherit it. In fact, without Jakom and the possibility of a successful presidential candidature, he risks losing a proportion of the Kamba vote basket. His dalliance with Gachagua in the hope of benefitting from the Mount Kenya rebellion has not been fruitful.

Neither has the nascent alliance with the DAPK party leaders of Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya made any considerable progress. He would have been the natural compromise and joint candidate for the united opposition, but he lacks the gravitas.

He needs a broad-based political alliance the most if he were to be a serious presidential candidate in 2027. In spite of his challenges, he remains the best option for the united opposition.

The resentment of the Kikuyu community against Ruto had been festering since the first Finance Bill of 2023. That budget made radical tax proposals which aimed at broadening the tax base.

It also intended to increase revenue for the grand projects of the Kenya Kwanza government. The community felt betrayed as they begun to pay taxes on small enterprises and agricultural produce which had enjoyed exclusion since time immemorial.

However, the implosion came in the following year when the Gen Z protests erupted with unprecedented violence. Gachagua was fingered in the strife and as a consequence he was jettisoned out of government in the resultant coalition reorganisation.

This pushed him to the opposition benches where he has been conducting himself as the de facto leader.

Counting on his ethnic community’s numerical strength, he has played hard ball with his colleagues. He has moved with alacrity to mobilise the Gema population into a united front against the government of Ruto.

He already formed his party the DCP for coalition purposes. He engages in bare-knuckled negotiations where his demands are either the presidency or 50 per cent of the gross government. He has successfully deployed the use of vile propaganda to emerge as the region’s kingpin. He is an ethnic populist and grassroots mobiliser of zero sum game.

Interestingly, his activities have been limited to his Central Kenya region without any apologies. His attempts to involve the Kamba and other Gema communities as cousins have been at best halfhearted.

He has recently acknowledged that he admires the Raila politics of post-election coalition building. Gachagua has therefore left no doubt that he is working round the clock for a coalition pact that would ensure he has a controlling stake in the next government.

It is also unlikely that his coalition intentions are vested with Ruto. However, politics is about interests and a day is long enough for tectonic realignments.

The duo of Wamalwa and Natembeya can at best bring to the table a proportion of the Luhya vote that will only assure each a seat in the coalition with Gachagua, Kalonzo or Ruto. The same goes for both Fred Matiang’i and David Maraga with their activities within the Gusii community.

Since there exists no clear front runner presidential candidate among the united opposition, Ruto has a head start in the 2027 elections. However, he has a lot of homework to undertake since the political terrain in 2027 will be very different from the 2022. He had worked quite closely with Raila since the merger of NDP and KANU.

Later, they were key partners in ODM and the grand coalition government. Ruto is therefore fairly well known to the Raila constituency. Under the broad-based government, they had established a warm working relationship that was expected to blossom into a pre-election coalition arrangement for the 2027 presidential election.

Raila has left the scene two years to the election. The ODM at 20 celebrations was meant to initiate the grand process of assimilating Ruto back into the ODM fraternity. It was anticipated that at an opportune moment, Raila would strategically hand over his constituency to Ruto for his second term bid.

The sudden absence of the dominant party leader has left his constituency restless and rudderless. ODM was largely a movement and nominally a legal entity as a political party.

While it was visibly united under Raila, he nonetheless established enclaves with different interests and regional kingpins. It was a strategy to enable him maintain absolute control over the party leadership.

Ruto has not fully inherited this constituency. As he organises to participate in next week’s jamboree with ODM stalwarts, he must find out how to penetrate and capture this volatile vote basket.

Then the question of the Mount Kenya region must be confronted in his backroom strategy meetings. It would be catastrophic to let Gachagua wrestle the region from his grip. At the very least, he should devise a scheme to share votes. This would enhance the legitimacy of his second government.

Meanwhile, he must not relent in his efforts to consolidate the Rift Valley backyard. The region is cosmopolitan and may be easily susceptible to infiltration and enticement by the opposition forces.

In the run up to 2027 elections, Ruto has the luxury to enter into pre-election pacts or lead a broad based political movement that cuts across all regions and ethnicities.