AJUOK: Kalonzo faces hurdles in campaign to inherit Raila’s base

On Thursday last week, Wiper leader, Kalonzo Musyoka descended on Bondo, the birthplace of late ODM boss Raila Odinga, with a huge delegation from his Ukambani backyard and a large herd of cattle.

His homage raised political temperatures within the broad-based government circles, and bloggers responded with narratives about Kalonzo’s perceived betrayal of Raila during the 2007 elections. It was a spectacle to behold.

For context, ahead of the 2007 polls, Kalonzo fled with the registration instruments of the party he shared with Raila, ODM-K, leaving Raila without a party.

In a quick move, Raila found an alternative variant in ODM, which had been registered by lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, and used it as a vehicle for his run. Kalonzo proceeded to run for president on ODM-K, clocking third in a disputed election.

But as the country went up in smoke, following the disputed elections, Kalonzo joined Mwai Kibaki’s government as vice-president in early 2008.

He remained in that position, even as the national accord between Raila and Kibaki was signed, a factor causing friction between newly installed Prime Minister Raila and Kalonzo. They jousted over which of them was the more senior government official, a protocol war that oscillated between the bizarre and the comical.

But in all subsequent elections, Kalonzo aligned with and supported Raila for president. He was Raila’s running mate under the CORD coalition in 2013 and in the NASA coalition in 2017.

In 2022, after long-drawn-out negotiations facilitated by President Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo agreed to back Raila a third consecutive time.

That time, he didn’t even secure the running-mate slog, which had been handed to former Gichugu MP Martha Karua. Of course, the opponents of the Wiper boss easily forget the latter part of this history, preferring to go back 18 years to find fault.

In one of the 2022 campaign rallies, an aspirant allied to the Azimio Coalition made a rarely stated but obvious fact: that in all the years former PM Raila was made a hate figure by various political formations, only Kalonzo had resisted the temptation to use hate politics against the ODM boss. Many derogatory names had been thrown at Raila, including the infamous mganga, or sorcerer ¾ a term preferred by none other than President William Ruto.

No matter how far back one goes, it’s difficult to find any political differences between Raila and Kalonzo that degenerated to the sickening levels of other figures who remain in the public domain.

Indeed, this distinction, probably shared with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, is easily noticed by the typical Raila bases, especially the former PM’s Luo Nyanza heartland. The region’s marginalisation and deliberate targeting by successive regimes have made real political friends hard to come by.

It is for this reason that Kalonzo’s pilgrimage to Raila’s Opoda Farm was greeted warmly and with genuine affection. Casual body language observers averred that at Kalonzo’s meetings with local leaders, such as Governors Anyang’ Nyong’o of Kisumu and James Orengo of Siaya, there was a true sense of camaraderie and friendly communion.

Their warmth was a far cry from the neighbourhood’s recent presidential functions, which seemed thoroughly choreographed and themed on broad-based choir tunes. It helped that Raila’s family had nothing but praise for the Wiper boss, which obviously activated the green-eyed monster across the political aisle.

Be that as it may, the Wiper boss faces a difficult journey in attempting to inherit Raila’s powerful electoral base. Some hurdles are self-inflicted.

For instance, in recent months talk in the street was that Kalonzo had been avoiding any association with Raila for fear of antagonising the Gen Z movement. Many in the movement had labelled Raila a traitor for signing a cooperation agreement with President Ruto. Kalonzo doesn’t want that ‘traitor’ tag to be hung around his neck.

Indeed, Kalonzo was conspicuously absent from the burial of Raila’s long-term aide George Oduor in Rarieda in April. It is at functions such as this that the unwritten roll call of friends and enemies is taken.

Actually, with Raila’s will decreeing only 72 hours between his death and burial, the Wiper boss nearly missed the funeral, He had flown out of the country when Raila passed on in India. Kalonzo had to make quick return plans to attend funeral services in Nairobi and the burial at Kang’o ka Jaramogi in Bondo.

Quite ominously, just weeks before the ODM leader’s demise, the Wiper chief had publicly declined Raila’s invitation to grace the ODM@20 celebrations in Mombasa, naively going public while rejecting what had apparently been a private invite.

ODM had honoured Kalonzo with the invitation to the jamboree as was one of the original and authentic party founders. It was to be graced by President Ruto too. That fete had to be postponed after Raila’s demise, and is taking place this week in Mombasa.

The second burden for Kalonzo is the massive one in the form of impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. As the greatest purveyor of tribal politics in recent times, any formation including Gachagua is a difficult sell outside the Mt Kenya region.

This aversion is not only due to the former DP’s despicable brand of divisive politics, but also his style of political negotiation. If Kalonzo was to run for President, with Gachagua’s backing, the latter would most likely demand a 50 per cent share of government positions in the subsequent regime. That would leave the rest of Kenya, including Kalonzo’s own Ukambani backyard, to all share out the remaining 50 per cent.

While the political drama ignited by Kalonzo’s visit to Bondo last week was raging, a media clip re-emerged, showing Raila all but endorsing the Wiper boss for president. The apparent blessing was given at the birthday party of Raila’s elder brother and current ODM acting party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga, in October 2023.

In typical fashion, Kalonzo arrived at the fete, with the entire Ukambani political leadership in tow. For all intents and purposes, the birthday party became nearly a community-to-community leadership transfer session. It was too early to influence the 2027 elections, but Raila’s words, in hindsight, were carefully chosen to carry weight for a long time.

I think Kalonzo is too idealistic a leader for Kenya’s dirty political environment. But there is no doubt he is one of the last generation of leaders who, like Raila, truly love the nation and would exercise an awakening of conscience during national crises.

In fact, as the country experiences a dearth of credible leadership, the truth is that the former vice-president has largely maintained a clean image, a very difficult achievement in the whopping 40-plus years he has been a fixture of the country’s politics. Overall, I think he would make a good president, because he would have “limits” to how bad or low he or his regime would go.

As for the Raila base, as long as Kalonzo finds a delicate way to navigate the foregoing political baggage, he stands a great chance to be the chosen one.

The 2007 betrayal narrative is dissolved by the three consecutive elections in which he backed Raila. At any rate, we live in a country where every senior politician has betrayed someone.

And his media team can practically just run around with that clip from Oburu’s 2023 birthday party as confirmation of the late ODM leader’s “last instructions” ¾ virtually anointing Kalonzo ¾ now that there is a serious competition in the land over who really heard Raila’s last instructions well!