Ruto plots to divide opposition, targets Kalonzo and Eugene

AS politicians begin earnest preparations for the 2027 general election, President William Ruto is quietly executing a calculated strategy aimed at fracturing the United Opposition. It began with the bringing to the fold of Kanu leader Gideon Moi last month.

Sources close to the President said that his focus has now shifted towards former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa as he seeks to isolate former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and capitalise on divisions within the opposition.

Following the highly contested 2022 election, Kenya's political land- scape remains highly fragmented.

The opposition, led by Wiper lead- er Kalonzo Musyoka and Gachagua, Jubilee's Fred Matiangi, Eugene, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, has been trying to consolidate power in anticipation of a robust challenge against the Kenya Kwanza administration.

However, Ruto's strategic manoeuvres are designed to weaken this unity, particularly by targeting Kalonzo and Eugene.

Despite several overtures from the President's emissaries, Kalonzo has consistently rebuffed attempts to align with the government.

This rejection has prompted Ruto's strategists to pivot their efforts towards Eugene, who is seen as a potential key player in galvanising support from the Luhya community and Western.

The head of state already has two senior Luhya leaders in Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula.

He has also been working with ODM leaders in the broad-based government led by Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya

Ruto's team is reportedly planning to expand its coalition by negotiating formal alliances with various parties, including ODM and Eugene's Democratic Action Party (Kenya).

The rationale is clear: by bringing the former Defence CS into the fold, Ruto can undermine Gachagua's in- fluence while simultaneously consolidating power in Western.

Eugene's position has become increasingly precarious as he grapples with the emergence of Natembeya, who has aligned himself with the former DP.

According to sources, Gachagua has agreed not to run for president, instead supporting a coalition led by Kalonzo with the Trans Nzoia governor as his running mate and Matiang'i as Prime Minister.

This arrangement has left Eugene feeling sidelined, particularly as he believes he should secure a prominent role, possibly even the deputy presidency, in any opposition coalition.

His discomfort with the evolving dynamics has provided impetus for Ruto's strategists to intensify their outreach.

They aim to present Eugene with the opportunity to play a pivotal role in the Kenya Kwanza coalition, which they argue could be more beneficial than remaining in a fragmented op- position.

Ruto has publicly declared his in- tent to win the next election decisively, claiming that the only formidable opponent was Raila Odinga, high- lighting his confidence in the current political landscape.

The President's strategy also includes fostering local candidates- popular governors, parliamentary aspirants and MCAS to run under parties associated with him.

This approach is particularly targeted at Central and Eastern, where Ruto's team aims to secure at least. 30 per cent of the vote.

Sources indicate that candidates who agree to support Ruto's coalition will have their campaign costs covered, further incentivising defections from the opposition.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As the political landscape continues to evolve, both Ruto and the opposition will need to adapt their strategies to address the challenges ahead. The question remains: will Ruto's tactics succeed in fracturing the opposition, or will a united front emerge to challenge his administration? Only time will tell as Kenya approaches another critical moment in its political history.