THE opposition's plan to consider Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya as a potential presidential running mate could complicate President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election strategy and force him into tough political choices.
Sources indicate that the opposition, led by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and his DAP-K counterpart Eugene Wamalwa, is keen to elevate the outspoken county boss to the national stage.
Kalonzo is widely expected to fly the opposition’s presidential flag in what is shaping up to be a high-stakes contest against Ruto.
Political experts say the plan to field Natembeya is a strategic move aimed at locking Ruto out of the vote-rich Western region.
“If that happens, it will be a done deal. It will seal Ruto’s fate in Western,” political analyst Martin Andati said.
Natembeya, a fiery first-term governor and former Rift Valley regional commissioner, has become one of the most prominent voices in the region.
The self-styled champion of the Tawe (“enough is enough”) movement has wowed supporters with his bold rhetoric and defiance of the regional political establishment.
His message of change is resonating with a growing base that views him as a fresh face in both regional and national politics.
Based on the 2022 voter register, Western has about 2.21 million votes, including Kakamega (844,55), Vihiga (310,043), Bungoma (646,598), and Busia (416,756).
The Luhya community is the second largest tribe after the Kikuyu in Kenya.
However, their numerical strength has often not been reflected at the ballot as a many remain unregistered voters.
Andati argues that Natembeya’s rising profile could help the opposition consolidate Western support, long led by the late ODM boss Raila Odinga, against Ruto’s political advance.
However, political analyst Charles Munyui believes the region should aim higher.
“Western has had vice presidents before—the late Kijana Wamalwa, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moody Awori. I don’t understand why its leaders keep settling for the DP post when they have the numbers to go for the top seat,” he said.
The emerging political realignments could force President Ruto to rethink his 2027 strategy as both camps scramble for influence in a region that may ultimately determine the election outcome.
For decades, Western Kenya has been a stronghold of Raila Odinga, with residents overwhelmingly backing him in successive elections.
But, without him, the region now appears to be a hotly contested battleground, with both Ruto and the opposition trying to gain influence.
“Western will decide the 2027 elections. Without Baba, whoever crafts the right strategy and message will carry the day,” Andati added.
Observers say Ruto may be compelled to reconfigure his 2027 ticket if the opposition picks Natembeya.
One of the options could be replacing his current deputy, Kithure Kindiki, with a Western candidate to energise that vote.
Although Kindiki hails from Mt Kenya East, his political influence in the region has been overshadowed by Gachagua, who has consolidated the mountain’s support.
Gachagua has vowed that Mt Kenya will deliver defeat for Ruto.
“The mountain that made you president can also make you a one-term president. That’s what we must do,” Gachagua said at a rally over the weekend, underscoring the simmering political tensions.
Some regional leaders have already threatened to oppose Ruto if he drops Kindiki from the ticket.
“We cannot allow anyone to replace Kindiki. The President should not listen to empty noise driven by greed for power," Tigania West MP George Mutunga said.
He added, “We have enough votes to bargain with any political group, and those eyeing the seat should know Mt Kenya East has the numbers and will defend its support."
Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiri stated that, “We want to tell our President that Mt Kenya East is fully behind him, but our support depends on Kindiki. Our region has supported others for top seat for many years.
“Now that we finally have one of our own, why should anyone start feeling greedy? The ODM camp should forget about this seat because it’s not vacant."
This reaction followed ODM acting leader Oburu Oginga’s call for the Deputy President slot from Ruto to secure the party’s backing in 2027.
Mt Kenya East – Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu – has 1.33 million voters while Mt Kenya West, which comprises Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyandarua and Laikipia, has 3.49 million voters.
Currently, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula are the bigwigs in Ruto’s camp in Western.
The President also enjoys the support of the influential Co-operatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya, all the governors from the region except Natemebeya, and the moneyed Cotu boss Francis Atwoli.
“If you go to Kakamega now, many residents are talking about two terms for Ruto because he has transformed our region through development programmes,” Lurambi MP Titus Khamala said.
Barely a week ago, Ruto camped in the region for four days – dishing out development goodies and persuading the locals to shun the opposition.
However, the Trans Nzoia governor has emerged as a thorn in the flesh for Mudavadi and Wetangula, threatening their long-held political dominance of the region.
Luhyas are the biggest voting bloc after the Kikuyu.
Since 2013, coalitions among major ethnic blocs have shaped presidential outcomes.
The Uhuru Kenyatta-Ruto alliance delivered two straight wins by merging Mt Kenya and the Rift Valley.
In 2007, the ODM Pentagon coalition nearly toppled Mwai Kibaki, while in 2002, a broad opposition front ended Daniel arap Moi’s 24-year rule.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
As the 2027 elections draw closer, the battle lines are being redrawn—not just along traditional ethnic and regional divides, but through new political alliances, strategic government appointments, and the relentless quest for swing votes that could ultimately decide the country's next leader. Both camps are laying out their strategies ahead of the General Election, which is barely two years away.
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