Political elites face trouble in Raila’s absence

The political future of several top leaders hangs in the balance following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, long regarded as a political enigma and kingmaker.

The so-called “Raila orphans”—a mix of governors and MPs—are leaders who appeared to rely heavily on his influence for their election and survival in politics.

For decades, Raila’s charisma and clout not only helped ODM candidates win but also shaped the trajectories of many political careers.

“I have seen people on social media saying that I am a political orphan. But coming here, I have seen a lot of political orphans—many people are crying,” National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed said during Raila’s burial, reflecting the anxiety among the former PM's allies. Raila, who died in India on October 15, was buried in Bondo on October 19.

Raila’s dominance was evident in ODM’s near-total control of his political strongholds. Now, without him, many governors face tough re-election battles.

Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said whether ODM-elected leaders will retain their seats without Raila will depend on how attractive the party remains after his demise.

“Is the new party leadership going to gather all and scatter none the way Raila did? Will the party still be attractive without him? Will the people come out to vote?” 

“These are tough questions, and as a party, we must handle the post-Raila era very carefully,” he said.

In Nyanza, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Migori’s Ochilo Ayacko and Homa Bay’s Gladys Wanga face an uncertain future.

In Siaya, Orengo’s re-election battle looks uphill without Raila’s influence. In 2022, he narrowly defeated former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, who ran on a UDM ticket—and analysts predict the 2027 race could be even tougher.

Ayacko faces a strong challenge from Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, who has declared interest in the governorship.

The Migori governor, a close ally of Raila, is seen as having benefited greatly from the ODM leader’s popularity in 2022.

In Homa Bay, Governor Wanga—one of Raila’s closest allies—may also struggle.

Raila personally intervened before the 2022 elections to have Wanga run for governor ahead of Oyugi Magwanga, now her deputy.

Magwanga is reportedly preparing to challenge her in 2027.

Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who lost to Wanga in 2022, is also said to be eyeing a comeback.

With significant financial resources and political networks, he could pose a serious challenge to Wanga in a post-Raila political environment.

In Western Kenya, Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa and his Busia counterpart Paul Otuoma may also face stiff opposition.

Both are perceived to have anchored their political strength on Raila’s support.

Barasa, who was backed by former governor and current Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya in 2022, has since fallen out with him—and could face challenges from Senator Boni Khalwale and former Senator Cleophas Malala.

In Busia, Otuoma’s dominance has long rested on ODM’s strength in the county, which may wane without Raila’s presence.

In Nairobi, Governor Johnson Sakaja—who had grown close to Raila—also faces a shifting political landscape.

Raila had openly defended and appeared to endorse Sakaja despite him being elected on a UDA ticket.

“As I head off to Addis, I want Nairobi to remain united and strong. My son here will take charge,” Raila said, pointing at Sakaja during a prayer meeting at the Bomas of Kenya, before leaving for Ethiopia to pursue the African Union Commission chairmanship.

Sakaja attended the event, which was organised by women affiliated with ODM.

During the event, Sakaja said he would organise a meeting with ODM women leaders in Nairobi to show his political direction ahead of 2027.

“Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu na mwenye macho haambiwi tazama (The sign of rain is clouds and one who has eyes is not told to look),’’ Sakaja quoted the Swahili saying after Homa Bay's Wanga and Makadara MP George Aladwa prodded him to join ODM.

“While you are away, Baba, we want our great Governor Sakaja to take charge and join ODM so that we can work together,’’ Aladwa said.

Recently, Raila intervened to save Sakaja from impeachment by Nairobi MCAs.

Sakaja faces fierce competition from Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and former PS Irungu Nyakera, who have declared interest in the governor's seat.

Observers say Raila’s political influence and popularity in the capital could have swayed the voters in favour of the city boss.

At the Coast, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir and Kilifi’s Gideon Mung’aro may also feel the vacuum left by Raila.

Nassir, ODM’s deputy party leader, rode on Raila’s wave in 2022. However, he now faces growing opposition from Nyali MP Mohamed Ali and Mombasa assembly speaker Aharub “Aroro” Khatri—a close ally of Mining CS Hassan Joho.

Political analyst Frankline Nzao said Joho remains a powerful force in coastal politics because of his financial muscle and appeal to the youth.

“The only person who could tame Joho was Raila. Raila used to persuade Joho not to act in certain ways, even when he openly showed dislike for Nassir. Now that Raila is gone, this is what worries Nassir,” he told the Star.

Nzao said Nassir’s tears at Raila’s death were not just about losing a party leader, but also a personal protector.

“Raila created an extra deputy party leader position just to elevate Nassir politically. He was shielding him from political storms,” he said.

Nassir is currently battling controversy over a Sh17 billion waste management deal between the county and Ghana’s Jospong Group of Companies.

MCAs allied to speaker Khatri—Nassir’s rival—are pushing for its cancellation, and an impeachment motion against environment executive Kibibi Abdalla, one of Nassir’s allies, is reportedly in the works.

Political activist Mwakuja Mrombo said Khatri and Joho now have more leeway to fight Nassir politically since “his shield is gone”.

“Nassir used to rely on Raila’s closeness with his father, Shariff Nassir [deceased], to gain political protection. Now, the stool he stood on has been withdrawn—he must fight on his own,” Mrombo said.

In Kilifi, Governor Mung’aro—who also benefited from Raila and ODM’s dominance—may find it difficult to replicate the same success in 2027.

Besides governors, several MPs representing constituencies where Raila enjoyed massive support also face re-election hurdles.

In Nairobi, ODM has long dominated constituencies such as Ruaraka, Mathare, Westlands, Lang’ata, Kibra, Dagoretti North and Makadara.

MPs TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), Antony Oluoch (Mathare), Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands), Felix Odiwuor (Lang’ata), Peter Orero (Kibra), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North) and Aladwa (Makadara) may now struggle to retain their seats.

A similar situation looms in Nyanza, where MPs Otiende Amollo (Rarieda), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Sam Atandi (Alego Usonga), Roza Buyu (Kisumu Town West), Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) and Junet Mohamed (Suna East) face uncertain political futures.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The sudden death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, long regarded as the enigma of Kenyan politics, has left many political careers hanging in the balance. Raila, who was laid to rest on October 19, had for decades been the undisputed supremo of the Orange Democratic Movement. His immense influence and charisma not only propelled party candidates to victory but also anchored the political fortunes of many of his allies. Across the country, particularly in ODM strongholds, politicians rode on Raila’s popularity to secure elective seats.