Why Raila’s death could spell doom for ODM ‘orphans’

The sudden death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, long regarded as the enigma of Kenyan politics, has left many political careers hanging in the balance.

Raila, who was laid to rest last Sunday, had for decades been the undisputed supremo of the Orange Democratic Movement.

His immense influence and charisma not only propelled party candidates to victory, but also anchored the political fortunes of many of his allies.

“I have seen people on social media saying that I am a political orphan. But coming here, I have seen a lot of political orphans, a lot of people are crying,” National Assembly minority whip Junet Mohamed said during Raila’s burial.

“So I will gather all these political orphans and be their chairman.”

Junet added that Raila’s passing has affected even his critics, noting that even those who turned the veteran opposition chief into their “political boogeyman” had also lost, as they no longer had anyone left to insult.

Since Raila’s death, social media has been abuzz with comments suggesting that many ODM leaders have lost a political father figure, who guided their careers and anchored the opposition’s voice.

Across the country, particularly in ODM strongholds, politicians rode on Raila’s popularity to secure elective seats.

In many regions, clinching the party ticket—or simply being seen alongside Raila on the campaign trail—was often enough to guarantee a win at the ballot.

This reality defined the landscape in Raila’s traditional bastions of Luo Nyanza, the Coast, parts of Western Kenya, Nairobi and sections of the Rift Valley.

Political observers now warn that with the protective umbrella he offered gone, many of his loyalists have been left exposed.

“Things are going to be tough,” political analyst Martin Andati said.

“It will no longer be about who was close to Raila. These leaders will now have to stand on their own and prove what they have delivered to the people.”

Raila’s dominance was evident in ODM’s near-total control of his political backyard.

All sitting governors and senators in the four Luo Nyanza counties—Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori—were elected on the ODM ticket.

In Siaya, five out of six MPs were elected on an ODM ticket, with the exception of Ugenya MP David Ochieng’ from the Movement for Democracy and Growth party.

A similar situation exists in Kisumu, where six of seven MPs are from ODM. The seventh—Kisumu East’s Shakeel Shabbir—was elected  as an independent candidate.

Migori has six out of eight MPs from ODM, with Kuria West MP Marwa Kitayama and Kuria East MP Mathias Robi elected on the United Democratic Alliance ticket.

In Homa Bay, six out of seven MPs were elected on an ODM ticket, with only Suba South MP Caroli Omondi running as an independent.

The pattern extends beyond Nyanza. In Busia county, five of the seven MPs were elected through ODM, while in Mombasa, only one secured victory outside the Orange Party.

Now, in Raila’s absence, the party’s top brass—and many members who thrived under his dominance—face a crucial test: whether they can retain key seats and maintain ODM’s political supremacy.

Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Oginga, has been named acting party leader as ODM navigates the post-Raila transition.

Already, cracks have started emerging within the party, threatening to fracture the movement that has dominated Kenyan politics for two decades.

The split became evident during Raila’s burial, where the party’s top echelon openly clashed over the direction ODM should take.

Opposing camps differed on the path Raila had envisioned for the party, with secretary general Edwin Sifuna insisting that the late ODM leader had not endorsed President William Ruto’s re-election.

“We shall follow the last stand of Raila, which he made 23 days before he died. This is not the time to push selfish narratives in ODM. ODM is the party for everyone, for the whole country,” Sifuna said.

“Let me state before you here that the party you have left us, I, Sifuna, will not be part of those who fail ODM or Raila.”

Sifuna has consistently maintained that he would not support Ruto’s re-election, even declaring at one point that he would quit if ODM endorsed the President’s bid.

Senate minority whip Ledama Olekina said the party must remain united.

“I know a lot of people expect ODM to fight, to split into factions. I want to assure Kenyans that as long as God gives us time on this earth, we will follow Baba’s footsteps,” he said.

“Baba said we stay together and that is the message he left for us. I hope we can all come together to fulfil the dreams and aspirations of our hero.”

ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nassir and Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives) also vowed to keep the party intact.

“Baba, I want to assure you, we did not betray you when you were alive and we will not betray you when you are dead. We will remain in the broad-based government. We will refuse to betray you,” Nassir said.

Joho warned that attempts to divide the outfit would fail. 

“If you try to divide the party, you are the one who will go. The party will remain here to stay,” he said.

Mbadi expressed similar sentiment. 

“Raila showed us before he died that he wanted us to be in government. As a community, as a party, we will be in the broad-based government. We will walk with you.”

Echoing the remarks, Wanga claimed that Raila had directed ODM to remain in the broad-based arrangement for national stability.

“I remember him speaking at the burial of the late Dr Phoebe Asiyo, where he said he had made a clear decision to work with you (Ruto) for the unity of the nation inside the broad-based government,” she said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Kisumu Woman Representative and the late Raila’s sister, Ruth Odinga, has issued a strong warning against attempts to sow division within the Orange Democratic Movement, emphasising that the party belongs to all its members and must remain united. Ruth urged ODM members to resist internal wrangles and instead safeguard the unity and strength of the party that her late brother dedicated his life to building.