How Raila’s death will trigger political realignments in his strongholds

The late Raila Odinga

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a towering figure in Kenyan politics for more than four decades, has opened up a wide political vacuum across his traditional support bases.

The death has set the stage for a major realignment in the country’s electoral landscape.

From Nyanza to the Coast, Western Kenya to Nairobi, and even parts of northern Kenya, Raila’s influence was not just political—it was deeply symbolic.

With his passing, political observers say these regions are now up for grabs, and competition to inherit his vast support base has already begun.

Since founding the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in 2005, Raila had remained its undisputed leader, guiding it through five presidential elections and numerous coalition arrangements.

His death has left ODM and the broader opposition with no clear successor, even as allies like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka step forward to fill the void.

“Raila’s strongholds outside of Nyanza — this is Western, Nairobi, and Coast — will be up for grabs. Anybody who will appeal to these regions will take them,” said political analyst Fred Sasia.

“And with his financial muscle and state power, Ruto could be the biggest winner.”

At Raila’s burial in Bondo, President William Ruto made a notable political statement — not by what he said, but by what he avoided.

By deliberately leaving out partisan mentions of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Ruto cast himself not as a political rival, but as a reconciler seeking to bridge decades of regional divisions.

His tone and presence suggested a strategic move; to inherit not Raila’s party, but his national appeal, especially among marginalised and reform-minded constituencies.

“His speech in Bondo wasn’t just about mourning Raila the man,” said one observer. “It was an overture to the Luo nation and other former Raila bases — a message that their place is now within his government.”

In Luo Nyanza, a region known for loyalty to the Odinga family and resistance to successive regimes, Raila's departure sets the stage for a generational battle between the old political guard and ambitious younger leaders.

“The death of Raila will usher in new leaders in Nyanza and likely lead to fights between young politicians and the old guard,” Sasia added.

Governor James Orengo and Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi may carry influence, but political commentator Joseph Mutua cautioned that none possess the grassroots reverence Raila commanded.

“The region may continue to support ODM in the short term, but factionalism could grow without a unifying figure,” Mutua warned.

In Western Kenya, Raila’s longstanding alliances earned him broad support, but with his passing, the likes of Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula are expected to make strong bids to consolidate the region’s vote — this time without competition from their former political ally.

The Coast, another of Raila’s strongholds built on shared struggles around land rights and marginalisation, is also likely to see a shift toward localised politics and new regional alliances.

“His support was not solely ethnic but tied to shared grievances and long-term presence,” Mutua noted. “Post-Raila, coastal politics may revert to regional interests, with leaders like Hassan Joho attempting to fill the void.”

Among opposition leaders, Kalonzo appears best placed to inherit some of Raila’s influence. A long-time ally who stood with Raila in five elections, Kalonzo now seeks to rally Raila’s base — particularly in Luo Nyanza — behind his 2027 presidential ambitions.

“The Kamba community stood with Raila through five elections. Now Kalonzo seeks that loyalty in return,” said a source close to the Wiper Party.

Still, it remains unclear whether Kalonzo can command the same level of trust and emotional connection that Raila cultivated over decades.

Although Raila never dominated northern Kenya electorally, he garnered respectable support during key elections, especially when local grievances aligned with his reformist message.

His alliances with elders and regional leaders in areas like Marsabit, Wajir, and Garissa enabled him to secure votes when the issues matched his national agenda.

Now, with his absence, these regions may return to highly localised clan-based politics, or lean toward state-backed candidates — particularly if they perceive better access to resources and development.

Raila’s death is more than the loss of an individual; it marks the end of a political era. His unmatched ability to connect the personal with the political, to embody grievance while offering hope, gave him a stature few could match.

Raila, a towering figure in Kenyan politics for over four decades, was laid to rest in a private ceremony attended by close family members following a state funeral service.

A public memorial was held earlier at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology (JOOUST).

The funeral was attended by a host of dignitaries, including President William Ruto, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, and several Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries, MPs, and Senators.

The coming months will be decisive — and potentially volatile — as new alliances form, old loyalties are tested, and a new political order begins to emerge.