JUMA: Luo Nyanza by-elections a test of unity in ODM and broad-based government

Verification by the Presiding Officer for members of the ODM party is ongoing before one is given ballot papers to cast their vote during the Ugunja Sub-County primaries on September 26, 2025/FAITH MATETE

Coming less than two years to what will obviously be divisive and passionate election campaigns, there is a general feeling that the mini-election will be a gauge of the mood within sections of the country towards particular political formations.

Among the key areas under the microscope, where it is thought competition between different parties will be at its fiercest, will be the parliamentary seats including Magarini in Kilifi county, Malava in Kakamega county, Mbeere North in Embu county and several ward seats.

This school of thought presupposes that the Kasipul seat in Homa Bay county and that of Ugunja in Siaya county, will be easy pickings for the region’s dominant ODM party.

But it is not as easy as it seems. Within the party itself, different dynamics are currently at play. They range from which faction of the party one belongs to, to how much passion for the broad-based arrangement one has.

The cooperation framework between ODM boss Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, means many grassroots party members are never quite sure which of the party vested interests are at play at any given time.

Already, a big rift is being witnessed in Kasipul, where Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga is rooting for deceased MP Ong’ondo Were’s son Boyd Were while Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga is backing a different ODM candidate.

In fact, Magwanga has been quoted saying any attempts to impose the son of the late MP on the electorate may backfire on the party.

It is not the by-election that is causing these perceived rifts. In fact, they are only helping bring existing fault lines to the surface.

Word on the street is that Magwanga is planning to challenge his boss for the gubernatorial position in 2027 and is already attempting to place his people in strategic positions.

Besides, the emerging feeling that Boyd Were, the late MP’s son and Governor Wanga’s preferred candidate, is being favoured in this week’s party nominations, plays right into the hands of her deputy.

Out in Ugunja, in Siaya county, matters are relatively peaceful. The leading contender is Fredrick Owino, a former project engineer with a leading multinational firm. If credentials were the only measure of suitability for elective office, in this contest, Owino would be by far the ideal candidate. Aside from his impeccable credentials on the professional front, the former university student leader has been an ODM insider.

As early as 2007, he was chairman of the party in Laini Saba, in the then larger Langata constituency in Nairobi. Consequently, he was appointed ODM’s elections coordinator and returning officer in different constituencies in Nairobi, before his crown jewel, the appointment as the party’s presidential campaign agent for Nairobi, where ODM carried the day in the presidential vote, while also garnering the majority of MPs and ward representative seats.

In terms of “readiness to lead on day one”, there is no better profile among those seeking the ODM ticket in the upcoming by-elections.

I use this specific profile to demonstrate how brilliant CVs often make it to the ballot, but are either unnoticed by the electorate, or fall victim to the mass mobilisation and narratives of less endowed individuals.

Indeed, one of the cancers ailing Kenya’s electoral system is acknowledged to be poor choices being facilitated to rise to high office, followed by lamentations by the electorate for five years.

I have made it my duty, in the coming elections, to help point out the stark differences between what is ideal and what is not, especially where the choices on offer are easy to make.

There are three gentlemen eyeing the ticket in Ugunja. On any given day, the argument over who will carry the day tends to revolve a lot around who is closest to the area’s immediate former MP, James Opiyo Wandayi, whose appointment as CS necessitated the vacancy.

The CS was serving his third term when he took up the state slot. Having served for such a long time as the area MP and with a brilliant development record, it is no wonder that everyone seeking to succeed him scrambles to be seen as the closest to the former MP.

I am however persuaded that in the mind of the CS, the best man on the ballot presents him with a greater chance for continuity of his development agenda and the sustenance of his legacy.

I have pointed out before, that in the twilight of Raila’s politics, the ideal strategy for the Luo community would be to place people in elective positions who, even if they are predictably unable to fill the large shoes of the ODM boss, would have great impact on the legislative platform and community leadership in general.

In my view, the politics of patronage offered by the political party needs to evolve into a well-calculated system that elects and sustains the best.

Having said that, there is a level at which I suspect that every elective competition in Luo Nyanza from now may become a referendum on the place of the party and the suitability of the ODM-UDA “friendship”.

ODM is taking too long to decide whether it will run a presidential candidate and therefore go alone in 2027, or it will partner with UDA all the way and support President Ruto’s re-election. The longer it takes, the wider the gap of uncertainty and confusion grows, which essentially means that even within the grassroots, there will emerge those for and those against, becoming potent political forces in 2027.

I am certain that the by-elections are a huge inconvenience for senior politicians and party leaders. I mean, who wants some of these rising questions answered so soon? Indeed, who wants to find out the real feelings of the electorate about the goings on in the nation, at a time when one could do without the discomfort of knowing some home truths.

In Nyanza, the conversation will become more and more uncomfortable as a new dispensation takes shape. Regardless, however, I submit that only the best of the lot should win the party primaries this week and represent their people. It is time for party bigwigs to sit and watch, for once!