2027 Elections: Raila’s mixed signals keep ODM guessing

President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga/FILE

Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga has once again set the political class on edge with his characteristic ambiguity — a style some call strategy, others confusion.

In the months following the formalisation when? In March? of ODM’s cooperation with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Raila has maintained open lines of communication with the President.

This cordiality, unprecedented since the bitter 2022 elections, has fuelled speculation of a possible electoral pact for 2027.

For months, Raila has oscillated between signals of cooperation with State House and veiled criticism of the administration that reassures his loyalists.

Behind the scenes, he has instructed ODM grassroots structures to remain active — through rallies, by-elections and policy engagements — as a signal that the party remains vibrant and independent.

The upcoming ODM@20 celebrations, with a key rally in Kisii this Friday, are part of this strategy to demonstrate organisational strength and unity. The main 20th anniversary festivities will be held in Mombasa from October 10 to 12.

Political analyst Martin Andati recalled the late Vice-President Michael Wamalwa Kijana’s famous description of Raila Odinga as a “man of many faces” to explain the ODM leader’s current political manoeuvres.

He said Raila’s see-sawing between cooperation with President William Ruto and occasional sharp criticism mirrors Wamalwa’s early assessment of him as a politician who thrives on ambiguity. The ODM boss is famously enigmatic and has been called the “Riddle Man”.

“Remember what the late Wamalwa said: if you are talking with Raila you must be careful. You might be talking to Raila thinking you are talking to Amolo,” Andati told the Star.

“It is just the Raila who has always been cunning. Those who thought that he will not contest (the presidency) and started running, saying they will support Ruto in 2027, do not know who Raila is.”

Former Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu is emphatic that Raila’s apparent doublespeak is strategic and meant to maintain his and ODM’s broad-based engagement, as well as manage his Orange Party that has suffered cracks because of the deal with Ruto.

“Raila is a brilliant politician and an enigma,” Wambugu said. “He is able to make headlines by making statements that are unclear. That is how successful political parties are made. He did not clarify whether he will run in the presidential race ahead of 2027.

Whether Raila, aged 80, runs or not in the next presidential election is a major factor in Kenyan politics, the MP said. “He will keep his cards close to his chest for as long as possible, gather as much support as he can and use it to maintain his influence and negotiate with whoever becomes the next president.”

This ambiguity means President Ruto and his team have to keep taking care of Raila, Wambugu said. “Why would you want to commit to 2027 if you are not done here? Once you make it, people will start taking you for granted.”

While Raila’s overtures to Ruto may guarantee ODM access to state patronage, they simultaneously erode the moral high ground the party held for two decades as the face of resistance and genuine democracy.

Party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and other senior figures have voiced discomfort with the Ruto pact and broad-based government, warning that the party risks losing its identity and credibility as a strong opposition force. They are far from alone.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi suggested Raila’s mixed signalling was an open invitation to negotiate a broader post-2027 pact.

“He is reading the national mood. With Ruto’s administration losing goodwill, Raila is positioning himself as an alternative or kingmaker,” he told the Star.

On Thursday, a poll showed that a considerable number of ODM supporters want Raila on the ballot in 2027 and hope he will defeat Ruto. Views are divided, however, and some supporters want him to be a kingmaker.

Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) findings showed 23 per cent of Kenyans want the ODM boss to take another stab at the presidency.

From the survey report, 32 per cent of those questioned wanted him to support Ruto’s re-election, 17 per cent expected him to rejoin the opposition and support another candidate while 14 per cent want him to retire.

“Kenya’s are divided on Raila’s political future,” the report reads. “While the majority expect him to align with Ruto, nearly half still see him anchoring the opposition, either directly or indirectly.

“The divided opinion shows Raila’s political brand is at a crossroads. Long defined as the face of the opposition, his future role is now uncertain and lacks clarity.”

The findings come just days after the ODM boss hinted, during the party’s Parliamentary Group meeting, of a possible sixth run.

“We have not passed any resolutions as a party to say how we are going to go into the elections of 2027,” Raila told his MPs. “Wherever you are, don't commit the party to some things which have not been discussed. Let them be discussed first.

“Who told you ODM will not have a candidate in 2027?”

Analyst Andati said Ruto, a shrewd politician, must be careful in dealing with Raila, observing that former Prime Minister’s 2027 remarks could be inspired by the victory of 85-year-old former President Peter Mutharika in Malawi’s polls just last week.

“They keep on misreading him (Raila), that is why Sifuna is speaking out and Raila doesn’t condemn him,” he said. “If Sifuna was not speaking what Raila wants, they would have kicked him out of the party a long time ago.

Andati said Raila must have also been emboldened with the win in Malawi where an 85-year-old politician has won power. Raila will be turning age 84 in 2027. “What stops him from running?”

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei downplayed growing concerns over Raila’s latest comments during the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting, cautioning that they should not be “over-interpreted”.

Cherargei, a close ally of President Ruto, sought to calm political speculation, saying Raila’s statement does not amount to a reversal or betrayal of the cooperation agreement.

“People should not read too much into what Raila Odinga said in the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting because the UDA-ODM joint partnership is working perfectly beyond 2027,” he told the Star.

The ongoing partnership between ODM and UDA remains strong and intact, he said.