Raila bigwigs propel Ruto's 2027 campaign

President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political pact has reshaped the country’s electoral prospects as the 2027 race gathers momentum.

The alliance, which was born of the crisis of the Gen Z protests, has positioned Raila's key allies as key campaigners for Ruto's 2027 re-election bid.

What began as a response to youth-led protests has evolved into a sophisticated political machinery that could determine the next presidential election's outcome.

The agreement that brought ODM stalwarts into Ruto’s corner through the broad-based government has since altered the country’s political trajectory.

The incorporation has granted Ruto access to traditional Raila strongholds like Nyanza, Coast and Western regions, which would otherwise have been inaccessible.

The unexpected accelerants have seized every moment to put a strong case for President Ruto, as was the case during his tour of the Coast on Wednesday.

While the President and his deputy, Kithure Kindiki, have been deliberate about consolidating the Coast region, the efforts by Raila's allies stand out.

The region has mega development projects and programmes worth billions of shillings, some of which are ongoing and others are complete.

Ruto dangled, among others, a fully-fledged fish port, fish landing sites in Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, Lamu and Tana River, roads, markets, and special economic zones.

But at the various stops in Mombasa and Kilifi, the voices of Raila’s allies echoing his re-election call rang out.

Mining and Blue Economy CS Hassan Joho, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, his Kilifi counterpart Gideon Mung’aro, the firebrand Likoni MP Mishi Mboko, and several other leaders endorsed Ruto’s re-election.

“Some of our counties have seen the first tarmac road and other mega projects under the Ruto government. We have resolved that in 2027, all we know is two-term,” Joho said.

“We have decided, come rain or shine, light or darkness, we are standing with Ruto. He has initiated more flagship projects than his predecessors, and we don’t take it for granted,” the CS said.

Ruto has positioned legacy projects, among them affordable housing, the Mombasa commuter railway, Jomvu Bridge, and key link roads.

Nassir said, “If the cap fits Ruto, let him continue wearing it. We are fully behind him, and God willing, we will work with him until 2032, when some of us will also consider wearing the shoe.”

Mboko said, “Ruto has held us together; he is doing a lot of work compared with other previous administrations. For that, we will support his two-term bid. When we are done, we will ask Joho to hold hands with Kindiki.”

President Ruto has also conducted historic tours of Nyanza, which was previously hostile territory for the Kenya Kwanza, demonstrating the thawing of relations.

He has had similar high-level engagements with leaders from Kisii and Western, rallying them to his causes.

Their message in public meetings and in social media spaces has been one: Ruto would be the region’s horse for the 2027 race.

In Nyanza, Ruto has staunch Raila allies, notably Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma, his Uriri counterpart Mark Nyamita, and area governors are campaigning for his re-election.

Minority leader Junet Mohamed (Suna East MP) and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga are among key figures in Raila's circle who have hinted at backing Ruto's re-election bid.

Recently, Kisii leaders led by Governor Simba Arati assured the President of their support in the upcoming electoral contest.

They pledged to mount a campaign to counter the subtly growing influence of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i.

“We will work with the President because he has proven his worth. We cannot be in the business of insulting Ruto, yet he is delivering to us,” Arati said recently, dismissing Ruto's critics in the region.

In Western, Ruto enjoys the support of Wycliffe Oparany, who was ODM deputy leader before being poached into Cabinet as Cooperatives minister.

As a result, the President and his broad-based partner, Raila, have the chance of commanding the entire Western vote bloc.

In forging together, observers hold that they stand to challenge the influence of new entrants like DAP-Kenya and its associates.

The President's accommodation of ODM figures appears driven by electoral calculations, especially with the split in the opposition Azimio coalition.

“The mobilisation of Raila's political machinery behind Kenya Kwanza’s 2027 campaign represents a masterstroke of realpolitik,” Prof Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said.

He, however, warned that some of the strategies the team has employed, like using Rigathi Gachagua as the trump card or reason to support Ruto, may not apply uniformly.

“It may work in some sections of the country, like Nyanza, being that he (ex-DP) has antagonised most regions, and the feeling that he may want to use his Mt Kenya backyard as a bargaining chip.”

The integration of Raila's loyalists into Ruto's administration has been both comprehensive and strategically calculated.

Key ODM figures received significant ministerial portfolios, placements which provided Ruto with political leverage while offering ODM influence within government structures.

It also provided stability to a besieged administration while offering Ruto access to the previously tough voting blocs.

Notably, while Raila himself has affirmed this arrangement would continue “until 2027”, his party is split, amid the feeling he is handing the ODM machinery to Ruto wholesale.

Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen stated in a recent meeting that, "Opposing President Ruto in 2027 is a waste of time since he is bound to win, especially now that he has joined forces with Raila".

Even so, the sustainability of the much-touted alliance remains uncertain.

Raila has maintained that ODM has not formally joined government and that continued cooperation depends on the implementation of their 10-point agreement.

The parties have formed an internal task force to monitor the progress of implementation of the pact.