When Martha Karua fell out with her mentor and former party boss Mwai Kibaki, she fielded candidates in the ensuing by-elections of Makadara and Nakuru Town constituencies. The candidates ran on her NARC Kenya party.
William Kariuki Mirugi succeeded his father after a fatal plane accident and the mervarick Gideon Sonko succeeded Dickson Wathika after his election was nullified. The elections provided Karua with a rare opportunity to demonstrate her political mettle.
In spite of the victories being spread apart and without the euphoria of a general election, Karua became a key political player. NARC Kenya soon became more visible and commanded a respectable presence in the political sphere. Kibaki retreated to his corner of aloofness and paving the way for Prof George Saitoti to take control of the ruling party PNU.
The competition appeared to be firmly between NARC Kenya, PNU and the revolutionary ODM. However, the tragic death of Saitoti and Uhuru Kenyatta’s tribulations at the International Criminal Court dramatically altered the political equation.
Uhuru paired with William Ruto and whipped the ethnic emotions of their respective communities of Kikuyu and Kalenjin to create a victimhood movement. The movement established the coalition between Uhuru’s Jubilee and Ruto’s URP parties. The coalition went on to win the subsequent election of 2013 bringing the duo to the helm of government in the first election under the 2010 Constitution.
The country finds itself in similar situation today. Raila Odinga has chosen to work with the government of Ruto under the broad-based arrangement. This effectively renders him co-principal in the successes and failures of the government. ODM cannot run a campaign of antiestablishment successfully.
Yet the 10-point agenda of the coalition agreement did not include joint candidatures in elections. Therefore, each of the parties have legal and legitimate rights to present candidates for these by-elections and any other. Elections are generally emotive and elicit passion. If the UDA and ODM choose to go this way then it means they will compete against each other. Both parties have strong and loyal following.
The ensuing campaigns will most certainly be bruising and with predictable casualties. What is certain is that ODM will yield ground to UDA. The party leadership that has been opposed to the coalition arrangement led by the secretary general, Edwin Sifuna, will relish this prospect. To avoid unsettling the political peace currently being enjoyed, Ruto will be forced to cede ground. UDA though the ruling party will with great discomfort support ODM candidates. Politics being a game of attrition, ODM mandarins will take advantage of every opportunity to annihilate their coalition partners. The prospects will not go down well with the UDA ranks and efforts will be put to thwart such moves. These efforts may be overt or clandestine. However, the impact will be strenuous for the unity of the broad-based government. Ruto and Raila will have the daunting task of managing the resultant tensions to curtail an eventual fallout. Politics is a zero sum game.
The former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua will have his moment with political destiny. The by-elections provide him with the rare opportunity to demonstrate his organisational acumen. His mobilisation skills have been severally bandied as his greatest strength. It has been argued that this was the single most important consideration that Ruto made to pick him as running mate. He has run an aggressive anti-government campaign since his impeachment. Currently he has pitched tent in the US to woe the diaspora community. This is expected to raise his international profile as well as mobilise the international finance for an eventual stab at the presidency.
Gachagua has since registered a new political outfit, the Democracy for the Citizens Party . He is the party leader and his supporters have been angling for a duel with the Ruto.
They will push the Wamunyoro king to grant them space for a fight with their former boss. Gachagua also has been wishing for such an opportunity to show his former friend the middle finger. Will he rise to the occasion and pick gauntlet? He will require to mobilise huge resources to mount successful assault on the combined juggernauts of Raila and Ruto. The duo are seasoned political campaign managers and are known to work overdrive and back to back. They also enjoy the largesse of government system.
If Gachagua can pull this off and win at least one parliamentary seat then he shall have announced his arrival with grandeur. This is the moment to take his space in the high stakes game of Kenyan politics. Gachagua should therefore seek to replay the Karua game plan of yore.
The opposition coalition has always relied on the strength and charisma of Raila to compete against government candidates in by-elections. The team led by Kalonzo Musyoka finds themselves in very unfamiliar territories. Raila’s networks always provided the needed resources for successful campaigns. He is now working with the President and has practically pulled his party ODM out of the Azimio Coalition. The opposition therefore finds itself between a rock and a hard place.
They lack the stamina and wherewithal to present candidates yet they must also do so even if to save face. Eugene Wamalwa is fighting for his political skin in Trans Nzioa county against the onslaught by the aggressive and resource endowed Governor George Natembeya.
The leader of the Tawe movement has more appeal to the western Kenya population. However, his networks have not been firmly rooted to mount a strong assault against the giants in Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula and Wycliffe Oparanya together with governors Fenarndez Baraza and Kenneth Lusaka.
Thus unless they reorganise themselves and present a pragmatic strategy, the by-elections present them with the tragic moment to perish. They can use the November elections to assess their fortunes in the 2027 general election. If on the other hand, Raila chooses to break ranks with Ruto and engage in all out war with him, then the opposition are better off on his side. This might grant them the opportunity to reunite and present a formidable front for the 2027 general election.
The writer is a political and policy analyst.
