The heavy baggage weighing down opposition in charge against Ruto

A mix of internal issues, political baggage and individual shortcomings seems to be weighing down the United Opposition in its effort to unseat President William Ruto in 2027.

Despite a growing wave of perceived public dissatisfaction with Ruto’s administration, the opposition appears to be grappling with a complex set of issues that could make it easier for the President to secure re-election, political observers say.

“The opposition faces many challenges that, if they do not work to address, may work to their disadvantage and, of course, to the benefit of the incumbent President,” political observer Elias Mutuma said.

At the core of the opposition challenges are controversial pasts of some of its principals, internal wrangles over a flagbearer and ethnic baggage associated with some leaders.

Some of the opposition chiefs are also perceived to lack the charisma and political aggressiveness needed to effectively challenge Ruto.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, ex-Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i have emerged as the top frontrunners to fly the opposition’s presidential flag.

Others eyeing the top seat include People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, DAP-Kenya's Eugene Wamalwa and DP's Justin Muturi.

Mutuma said the opposition is grappling with tribal baggage and the burden of identifying a nationally accepted leader, without a dark past, to entice Gen Zs and mount a serious challenge against Ruto.

Sources say government operatives may be infiltrating the opposition, potentially destabilising what has been seen as a formidable force against the incumbent.

“When you look at the Gen Z movement, it needs a very new face. A face that is not tainted with many past wrongdoings. The question is, who amongst them (opposition leaders) is that clean? That is one of the challenges,” Mutuma said.

“If you look at the former DP, he is widely seen as a Mt Kenya kingpin, who is out to champion for interests of people from the region. Kalonzo and his Wiper party are seemingly only fronting the Ukambani interest."

Political analyst Martin Andati said, “There is a tribal tag hanging on them and that may not go down well with the young voters.”

In addition, doubts have emerged about the capacity of some key opposition figures to consolidate their backyards, which are currently firmly under the sway of pro-government politicians.

Western, for instance, which the opposition has seemingly tasked Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya to deliver, is still believed to be under the control of Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga. 

Currently, the United Opposition is vigorously searching for a presidential flagbearer, with each faction aggressively pushing narratives to elevate its preferred candidate.

“I am the frontrunner and I think I have the best chance to be President,” Gachagua said during his current tour of the US.

While Gachagua is seen as an aggressive orator, articulate and crowd puller who could give Ruto a run for his money, his ‘tribal’ brand of politics is seen to be working against him.

In his current tour of the US, a bold Gen Z, Valentine Wanjiru told him off against regional kingpin politics and challenged him to fashion himself as a national leader.

“We are Gen Zs, and we are here to tell you the truth. And if we do not tell you the truth, we are doomed to fail,” she said.

Wanjiru urged Gachagua to reframe his political approach if he hopes to challenge Ruto effectively in 2027.

Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni also questioned Gachagua’s credentials.

“If you want to be a presidential candidate, you must look beyond your region and community,” he said.

“Ask yourself; which other community can support you beyond your own?”

Also hanging over Gachagua’s head is the unresolved impeachment.

Parliament impeached Gachagua late last year, potentially locking him out of public office. He is fighting his impeachment in court.

“Former DP Gachagua is impeached; he cannot run. I do not understand why people consider him a viable candidate. The constitution says once you are impeached, you cannot run,” Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, a lawyer, said.

Other legal minds, however, say he can still run for public office until he exhausts all appeal mechanisms.

For Kalonzo, he has vowed that he would not play second fiddle to anyone – a hard stance position that could wreck the yet to be formed coalition.

“Kalonzo’s candidacy is non-negotiable,” Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a close ally of Kalonzo, told the Star recently.

He brings extensive experience — having served as vice president and Foreign Affairs Minister.

Political analyst Kaburu Kinoti says Kalonzo is a credible option.

“He’s not a controversial leader,and his experience is unmatched. He may likely team up with Matiang’i for a broader appeal," he says.

But critics say his repeated withdrawals from presidential races have weakened his brand as a serious contender and his support base remains largely confined to Ukambani.

He is also seen as a docile and less aggressive politician whose diplomatic brand of politics could place him at a disadvantaged position.

In addition, Kalonzo is perceived to be anchoring his politics on his Ukambani backyard, something that may not go down well with Gen Z.

Besides battling to fly the opposition flag, Matiang’i shoulders the heaviest controversial past that could come to haunt his bid.

Controversies—including unlawful deportation of lawyer Miguna Miguna, alleged involvement in the Sh1.5 billion Ruaraka land saga and accusations of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances during his tenure—have resurfaced and threaten to overshadow his ambitions.

Matiang’i faces mounting scrutiny over past allegations of human rights abuses – including torture and killings – and governance failures.

Political observers warn that these controversies may weigh heavily on his campaign, especially as human rights defenders and political rivals begin to aim.

“If we are to follow Chapter Six [of the constitution] as it was envisaged, we wouldn’t have such candidates. Kenyans are not scrutinising those in power,” Andati said.

Justice and Freedom Party deputy party leader and former presidential candidate Reuben Kigame recently said, “Matiang'i oversaw mistreatment, abduction and brutal deportation of Miguna Miguna—a citizen and legal mind from our country.”

The former CS is also seen as “a project” of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, with some critics claiming the new political move is a ploy to propel the former head of state back to power through proxy.

Uhuru’s Jubilee Party has announced Matiang’i as its presidential candidate.

Kigame also criticised Matiang’i’s leadership in rolling out the Sh6 billion Huduma Namba project, which was later declared unconstitutional.

“...then just come back and tell the same citizens that you want to be the next President? There are many things I do not see, but these?” he asked.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As the search for a flagbearer continues, the opposition faces a delicate balancing act; uniting fractured parties, managing egos, and confronting a youth-led political awakening that is reshaping the rules of engagement. Whether they can settle on a candidate who inspires cross-regional support and captures the spirit of the moment may well determine if 2027 brings change — or continuity.