Bloodbath: 90 per cent of politicians unlikely to retain seats - poll

POLITICIANS face a potential bloodbath in the 2027 general election, with a new report warning that up to 90 per cent of the current elected leaders could lose their seats.

A survey released on Thursday by Transparency International – Kenya shows that none of the incumbents enjoys more than a 10 per cent likelihood of re-election.

“Overall, no elected official was reported to have more than a 10 per cent chance of re-election,” the report states.

The survey excluded the president as it focused on the re-election chances of county elected leaders: governors, senators, women representatives, MPs and MCAs.

The report paints a particularly grim picture for woman representatives and senators, who face the lowest chances of returning to office.

Of the 47 current woman representatives, only 2.6 per cent are considered "very likely" to be re-elected, while 9.7 per cent are "likely" to return.

For senators, just 4.2 per cent are "very likely" to be re-elected, with another 20.6 per cent considered "likely" to retain their seats.

“The position of the woman representative and that of the senator showed the least likelihood of re-election,” the report adds.

The survey sampled 1,029 Kenyan adults from 15 counties, selected using simple random sampling. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews.

In a December 2024 parliamentary scorecard, Mzalendo Trust, a parliamentary watchdog, tracked lawmakers' participation in debates.

In the Senate, Samson Cherargei (Nandi), Eddy Oketch (Migori), Tabitha Mutinda (nominated - UDA), Okong’o Omogeni (ODM), and Gloria Orwoba (nominated - UDA, now ousted) were ranked the most active, speaking 209, 159, 142, 137, and 136 times respectively last year.

Among MPs, Wilberforce Oundo (Funyula) topped the list with 103 floor contributions, followed by Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North) with 98 and James Nyikal (Seme) with 94.

Makali Mulu (Kitui Central, Wiper) and Adan Keynan (Eldas, Jubilee) followed with 80 and 47 speeches, respectively.

In the new TI report, MPs and governors have better re-election chances compared to the others, but overall still face a bleak future.

The report shows 8.9 per cent of MPs are "very likely" to be re-elected, compared to 6.3 per cent of current governors.

Additionally, 28.3 per cent of MPs and 21.8 per cent of governors are considered "likely" to return.

For Members of County Assembly, 6.1 per cent are "very likely" to recapture their seats, while 22.4 per cent are "likely" to return.

The report links the comparatively higher re-election chances for MPs to their visible engagement with constituents, largely through the National Government Constituency Development Fund.

“The MP position came closest with a likelihood of 8.9 per cent, probably on account of the visibility created by their role in managing the NG-CDF,” the report says.

By contrast, senators lack a development fund, though a bill is currently before Parliament to introduce a Senate Oversight Fund.

Woman representatives manage the National Government Affirmative Action Fund, but this has not translated into higher public approval.

Despite access to public funds, senators and woman representatives were rated lowest in terms of performance among elected leaders.

“The offices of the senator and the woman rep were rated lowest, receiving a score of two out of five each,” the report says.

Governors, MPs, and MCAs fared slightly better, each scoring three out of five, which the report categorises as "average".

“A score of three could denote an acceptable performance level, slightly above the midpoint of 2.5. Notably, none of the offices scored four, which would indicate good or very good performance,” the report explains.

A worrying trend is the declining performance rating for senators. While they scored an average of three in 2016 and 2019, this dropped to two in 2025.

The study also found that Kenyans have limited knowledge about senators and woman reps, mainly due to minimal interaction with the public.

The awareness levels on the roles of the woman representative and the senator were the least understood, at 41.3 per cent and 54.1 per cent, respectively.

“Given this limited knowledge, it is expected that the residents would have less interaction with the offices and subsequently lower levels of civic demand for accountability,” the report says.

The survey shows that the office of woman representative had the lowest reported contact with respondents at only four per cent, followed by that of the senator at 5.4 per cent.

In comparison, the office of Member of the County Assembly had the highest contact rate at 24.9 per cent, while the office of governor had a contact rate of 18.7 per cent.

Interestingly, despite these perceptions, the survey reveals a strong willingness among voters to elect women to key political positions.

In 2025, 47 per cent of respondents said they were either "likely" or "very likely" to vote for a female governor, while 45 per cent expressed the same for female senators.

The MCA seat had the highest support, with 51 per cent saying they would back a woman.

However, this marks a decline compared to 2019, when 65 per cent favoured a female governor and 68 per cent supported a female MCA.

“Despite the intent to vote for female candidates, it must be noted that the actual election results reflect a different reality,” the report cautions.

In the 2022 general election, only seven women (14 per cent) were elected as governors, up from three in 2017.

In the senate, only three women were elected—just 6.3 per cent of the total.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The survey targeted three distinct sample populations. The sampling point was picked among the general citizenry. These are composed of adult Kenyans of 18 years and over, selected from 15 counties. Participants were chosen through simple random sampling methods, with working quotas for rural-urban divide, gender and age considerations. The sample included executive officers in the selected counties, specifically the chief officers for education, health, water and finance departments. The third group comprised those departments.