Half of the world’s fertile farmland could be lost by the year 2100, a new report has shown.
This could put under threat key food crops such as wheat, coffee, beans, cassava and plantain, which are consumed widely by households.
The new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations says several important crops, including wheat, coffee, beans, cassava and plantain, could lose up to 50 per cent of their most suitable farmland by the year 2100 due to climate change.
FAO senior climate change officer Martial Bernoux says the new findings are crucial for planning and adapting to the effects of climate change.
“With weather becoming more unpredictable, with extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods, farmers and decision-makers need to know whether the crops or investments they’re making will still be viable,” he said.
The study, "Have crops already reached peak suitability?”, says five of the nine major food and cash crops are already losing best conditions for growing. The losses are expected to worsen, especially for wheat, beans and coffee.
The report warned that coffee-growing areas could shrink significantly and wheat and bean production could suffer major declines, especially in regions such as North America and Europe.
On the other hand, crops such as maize and rice might temporarily benefit from changing climates, though the report indicates that this advantage could disappear later in the century under high-emissions scenarios.
World Bank, Climate-Smart Agriculture report shows declining productivity of many staples (wheat and maize) is alarming. However, there is also great potential to redress this through investing in CSA interventions that would increase productivity and mitigate climate change risks.
The interventions include new improved seeds, drought-resistant seeds and alley cropping.
FAO has developed the Adaptation, Biodiversity and Carbon Mapping Tool app as part of the COP28 Agriculture, Food and Climate National Action Toolkit.
The ABC-Map, launched last year, is one of the technical tools helping governments to develop and implement policy measures on climate action and agrifood system transformation.
It was launched last year during an expert panel on the Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation partnership at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture in Berlin, Germany.
“The ABC-Map tool can now support them in making better decisions and building climate resilience,” he said.
The ABC-Map is a geospatial tool that helps assess climate risks, biodiversity factors and carbon storage potential for farming and land-use projects. It’s open-source and uses satellite imagery and global datasets, making it accessible to users worldwide.
The updated version of ABC-Map now includes a new crop suitability indicator. This was developed using research from a study by French fintech firm Finres, commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD).
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