How Raila’s support for sugar reforms offers Ruto reprieve

Raila, the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), enjoys near-fanatical support in the sugar-producing strongholds of Western Kenya and Nyanza regions that house the largest sugar belts in the country.

He is now a key player in the broad-based government, following the signing of a working partnership with President Ruto, whose Kenya Kwanza administration is spearheading the reforms.

Coming at a time when President Ruto is heavily backing Raila's backyard to buttress his 2027 reelection chances, a fallout over the sugar reforms could chip away at any gains made so far.

On Friday, May 9, 2025, the government formalised the long-awaited leasing of four public sugar factories, marking a turning point in efforts to revive the once-thriving sugar industry.

The Kenya Kwanza administration has undertaken far-reaching reforms, including the leasing of at least five sugar factories in the Western and Nyanza regions for 30 years.

Although political leaders from across the divide in Chemelil, Muhoroni, Sony, and Nzoia sugar belts have protested the leasing, Raila has stepped in to offer President Ruto critical political insulation.

Notably, Raila, who had previously opposed similar efforts during the tenure of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, has now publicly supported the current leasing strategy.

His support was evident on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, when he held a meeting with the Kenya Sugar Board, chaired by former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, at his Capital Hill office.

The meeting came on the same day that MPs and senators allied to the ODM party criticised the government for leasing the four sugar factories.

It also followed a protest led by a section of Western Kenya leaders, including DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who opposed the leasing of the Nzoia Sugar Factory.

Wamalwa supported the protests and urged President Ruto to drop the leasing plan.

MPs and senators, including Raila's allies from Western Kenya, also addressed the media in Parliament and protested against the leasing.

Despite the political pushback, Raila on Wednesday reaffirmed his support for the reforms and expressed his willingness to offer counsel when needed.

"The Rt Hon Raila is a key stakeholder in the sugar value chain. They briefed him on the ongoing reforms in the sugar subsector, which aim to steer it back to a path of growth and achieve domestic self-sufficiency while ensuring maximum returns for all players," read a statement issued after the meeting.

He urged the board to stay focused on its core mandate of achieving self-sufficiency through domestic production while maximising benefits for farmers, millers, and other stakeholders.

"He assured the board of his full support for the reforms being undertaken and expressed his readiness to offer advice whenever required," the statement added.

The leasing plan has sparked uproar in Western and Nyanza, with politicians allied to Raila questioning the rationale behind the 30-year tenure, allegedly approved without public participation.

On May 12, 2025, elected leaders from Kisumu County called on President Ruto to issue an executive order halting the leasing of state-owned sugar factories, citing irregularities in the process.

Led by MPs James Nyikal (Seme), Onyango Koyoo (Muhoroni), Aduma Owuor (Nyakach), Shakeel Shabir (Kisumu East), Joshua Oron (Kisumu Central), and Women Representative Ruth Odinga, the leaders clarified that they were not against leasing per se, but rather the opaque manner in which it was being carried out.

In a joint press statement, they cited a lack of transparency, disregard for public input, and threats to local livelihoods.

Separately, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o—one of Raila’s key allies—also criticised the leasing deal, revealing deepening cracks within ODM over the sugar sector reforms.

"This is nothing short of daylight robbery and an economic coup d’état," Governor Nyong’o said.

However, Raila’s silence over the protests and his ultimate endorsement of the reforms could prove politically vital for President Ruto as he navigates the fragile sugar politics while ramping up sectoral reforms.

Observers argue that without Raila’s support, it would have been politically explosive for Ruto to proceed with the leasing plans.

Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga says the President’s growing closeness with Raila allowed him to time the move smartly.

“Without Raila’s support, the country could be witnessing deadly protests across ODM strongholds and in the affected factories, which would complicate the leasing process,” said Nyamboga.

“Raila is Ruto’s political shield during the leasing process, and that is why the President maintains a close working relationship with him, despite his lack of a formal office.”

Raila has previously gained significant political mileage by championing farmers’ interests, reinforcing his strong support base.

In 2015, he fiercely opposed the proposed leasing of sugar factories under then-President Uhuru Kenyatta’s reform drive.

In 2019, Uhuru and Raila jointly proposed the privatisation of sugar mills, but the plan stalled by 2021 as the country entered campaign season ahead of the 2022 elections.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development has secured a Sh12.29 billion investment from private firms to revive four state-owned sugar mills.

Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe said the investment will go to Nzoia, Chemilil, Sony and Muhoroni Sugar companies, following a 30-year lease.

West Kenya Sugar Company, which clinched the lease for Nzoia Sugar, will pump in the largest amount of Sh5.76 billion.

Kibos Sugar & Allied Industries Ltd. will invest Sh4.5 billion in Chemilil Sugar.

West Valley Sugar Company Ltd., now in charge of Muhoroni, is set to invest Sh1.02 billion, while Busia Sugar Industry Ltd. will put Sh1 billion into Sony Sugar.

Kagwe said the four firms will also pay a combined goodwill fee of Sh521,971,400 for leasing the land owned by the factories.