Hurdles opposition must confront in push to unseat Ruto in 2027

The path for Kenya’s opposition to unseat President William Ruto in 2027 is fraught with at least five significant obstacles.

For the team to successfully challenge Ruto in the next poll, it must clear political barricades and steady its ship as the 2027 realignment unfolds.

Key figures in the emerging alliance include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper party leader and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, PLP leader Martha Karua, DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa, and Fred Matiang’i.

Augmenting the alliance are former Cabinet Secretaries Mithika Linturi and Justin Muturi, both from the Mount Kenya region, and former Minister Mukhisa Kituyi from the Western region.

The former ruling Jubilee Party is represented by either Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni or the party’s national chairperson, Saitoti Torome.

Analysts opine that the opposition must address internal competition over presidential ambitions, mobilise adequate campaign resources, and seal loopholes that could allow infiltration by rivals.

As the opposition bigwigs craft their 2027 political vehicle, they must also ensure inclusive regional representation while remaining united in selecting their presidential lineup.

In the past, rival camps have been accused of planting moles within coalitions—individuals who defect at the last minute to launch their presidential bids.

Owing to their access to strategic information, these defectors often mount aggressive campaigns with the support of their political sponsors, undermining their former allies.

Political scientist John Okumu said the opposition has just begun navigating the “anti-Ruto alliance minefield".

“If this talent-laden and fabulously rich alliance that is coming up can overcome competing interests, ambitions, diverse outlooks and manage a sulking national voting bloc, then the ‘Must Go vs Kumi Bila Break’ duel will be of historical proportions,” he argued.

There are concerns that the alliance lacks regional representation from some of the country’s strategic blocs, such as the Coast and North Eastern regions, which could play to the advantage of their rivals.

The camp currently has a strong presence from the Mount Kenya region, a crucial vote bloc whose support is key to the coalition’s success.

However, observers argue that such a concentration of leaders from a single region could complicate the alliance’s cohesion when selecting the 2027 presidential flagbearer.

Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga noted that Mount Kenya’s dominance could be overwhelming for other prospective candidates.

 “There are challenges the alliance faces even at its initial stages that could slow down its takeoff. For example, there must be clarity on who the principals of the alliance are, and whether people like Linturi, Kioni, and Muturi are considered co-partners,” Nyamboga stated.

Past coalitions such as Cord, Azimio, Kenya Kwanza and Jubilee had principals as equal partners at the apex, supported by other regional leaders under them.

Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni said the current group of leaders has not yet formalised any coalition.

“What you saw were leaders meeting, but there is no coalition or formal alliance yet. Eventually, they will have to accept the person whom Kenyans believe is best suited to face Ruto in 2027,” he said.

“We must ask ourselves: who is that leader with national appeal, a solid track record, and the capability to implement the coalition’s agenda after winning the elections?”

Asked why some regions are not represented in the emerging alliance, Kioni said that once the political vehicle for the presidential candidate is identified, a more nationally inclusive structure will be established.

“That is why we want a party like Jubilee, which has a national image and representation, to sponsor the movement’s presidential flagbearer,” he added.

 Kioni is championing Matiang’i as the joint opposition presidential candidate on a Jubilee ticket.

Besides internal dynamics, there are also concerns about the alliance’s financial war chest as it prepares to battle President Ruto in 2027.

Gachagua, the central cog of the alliance, is the only key figure who has openly claimed to be endowed with resources and even insisted he partly financed the 2022 Kenya Kwanza campaigns.

“During the 2022 elections, William Ruto picked me as running mate because of my mobilisation skills and my capacity to mobilise resources. Everybody knows I’m not a poor man. I put serious money into the campaigns,’’ Gachagua claimed during a recent interview.

Kalonzo’s wealth is estimated at Sh3 billion, while Karua's is estimated at Sh1 billion.

While political goodwill is valuable, presidential campaigns in Kenya require enormous resources, with billions of shillings spent on logistics and transportation alone.

Kenya’s politics is largely personality-driven, where ideology plays a minor role compared to ethnicity and financial power.

Ahead of the 2022 elections, the number of helicopters owned or leased by politicians spiked, according to the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA).

In March, former KCAA Director-General Gilbert Kibe said that by the end of 2020, there were 67 registered helicopters, most of which were owned by politicians.

Data from the South African Revenue Service also revealed that Kenya imported 325 helicopters for lease from South Africa in 2020 alone.

In 2021, Members of Parliament rejected a proposal by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to cap presidential campaign spending at Sh4.4 billion and party budgets at Sh17.7 billion.

The Election Campaign Financing Act, passed in 2013, included a clause that it would take effect in 2017.

However, MPs claimed the proposed budget caps were unfeasible.

IEBC attempted to enforce revised spending regulations again in August 2021, but they were dismissed on the grounds that they were gazetted without Parliament’s approval and missed the required 12-month deadline ahead of a general election.

Currently, the law allows a presidential candidate to spend up to Sh5.2 billion, while governors, senators and women representatives have a limit of Sh433 million.