Will Maraga, Matiang’i split vote help Ruto’s 2027 bid?

The Abagusii community, a minority in Kenya’s political landscape, has found itself at a crossroads, with two of its prominent and vastly different sons seeking the presidency.

The formal candidature of former Chief Justice David Maraga and the much-anticipated bid by former Interior Cabinet Secretary and ‘Super Minister’ Fred Matiang’i, are causing ripples within the community.

And countrywide, they provide two very different choices. The possibility of two candidates from the community has caused concerns it could split their support base, diminishing the chances of both men to secure broader national backing.

With the debate about the presidential candidature of the community’s sons dividing political leaders from the region, Maraga has launched his likely candidature with countrywide consultations.

The CJ emeritus, known for his strict adherence to the law and moral precepts, is expected to unveil his presidential bid in coming months after listening to stakeholders countrywide.

Questions have arisen about whether Maraga, who retired as CJ in 2021, is acting independently or is a ‘project’ of influential figures seeking to influence the State House battle and undercut Matiang’i, a tough-guy Mr Fix it in the administration of former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

He also served as an Education CS. He is backed by the Jubilee Party of former President Kenyatta, meaning Kenyatta is in his corner.

Critics have also questioned the timing of Maraga’s push for the presidency, especially as expectations increase that Matiang’i will declare his bid for the top job.

Both Maraga and Matiang’i hail from Nyamira county, although Matiang’i’s father originally came from South Mugirango in the neighbouring Kisii county.

Concerns the Gusii community cannot field two presidential candidates and still expect broad national support have caused confusion among the community’s political elites.

Maraga has denied claims he is a political project backed by powerful forces, asserting his bid is genuine and inspired by young Kenyans seeking a candidate who is different and unsullied, not a politician steeped in politics and its manouevres.

“At the end of the day, the people will decide. Just relax, wait, and in due course, you will make up your own mind about whether or not I am a state project,” Maraga said in Nyamira on Monday.

“It should not be misconstrued that I am trying to undermine my brother Matiang’i. When the time comes, things will sort themselves out, and Kenyans will have their say.”

Maraga’s public meetings have been well secured by police officers, and the retired CJ also has been given escorts.

He was the Supreme Court’s 14th CJ, serving from October 2016 to January 2021 when he retired. On Monday, Maraga held his first consultative forum at Viongozi Centre in Nyamira, where he engaged with community opinion leaders.

“Today, I have formally started consultations here at home to listen to the views of my people. I will be travelling across the country now that I have your blessings,” Maraga told the gathering.

Signalling a possible confrontation between Matiang’i and Maraga, the former CS’s close allies are planning a massive homecoming event for him after months of speculation about his political ambitions.

The homecoming, tentatively scheduled for May, would mark Matiang’i’s return to Kenya after more than two and a half years in the United States, where he has been working for the World Bank.

The event is expected to launch his 2027 presidential bid and set the stage for gruelling campaigns against his former boss, President William Ruto, who was deputy president.

Ruto complained that President Kenyatta favoured the CS and gave him the mandate to oversee projects nationwide, previously Ruto’s job; Matiang’i was, in effect, Ruto’s replacement.

There’s no love lost between the two men. Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, a key figure in Matiang’i’s political camp, confirmed that preparations for the homecoming are well underway.

“Fred Matiang’i will soon be with us, it’s only a matter of days. His many supporters across the country are excited and are planning a grand reception for his return,” he said.

Onyonka has been representing Matiang’i at social events and political strategy meetings. Matiang’i’s anticipated return signals a major duel with Maraga, his own Gusii brother.

The former CS’s allies have set up committees to oversee preparations for his arrival and reception, which they claim will rival the historic homecoming of Kenneth Matiba in the early 1990s.

A panel of prominent politicians, academicians and professionals is to begin mobilising within the next week, a pivotal development potentially reshaping the presidential race.

In addition to the national coordinating committee — its details remain confidential to prevent political interference — regional caucuses have been formed in major cities, including Nairobi, Kisumu, Nakuru, Nyeri, Mombasa, and Wajir.

These groups, led by political figures, are mobilising support. Sources predict Matiang’i’s reception will be a spectacle, beginning with a grand welcome at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, followed by a procession through Nairobi’s central business district, and culminating in a rally in the capital, and other rallies countrywide.

Matiang’i is to embark on a nationwide grassroots tour before formally unveiling his new political party and presidential bid in readiness for a duel with Ruto.

“We are building momentum through consultations to identify a political vehicle for his bid,” a former South Mugirango MP said.

“Several parties have already expressed interest.” Maraga has come under pressure from a group of Abagusii politicians supporting Matiang’i who want the former CJ to back down and support the former CS. There is no indication he will do so.

Cracks have emerged as the two camps become defined and some regional politicians vigorously support Maraga as an upstanding candidate and administrator with many years’ experience.

Former Borabu MP Ben Momanyi described Maraga’s candidacy as inevitable. “No candidate in the country has a record to match Maraga’s. We should support him by all means,” he said.

North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko also supports Maraga but emphasised the importance of broad consensus among leaders and residents.

“It’s good to see our brothers show ambition. However, they should not become a cause of division in our community,” Nyamoko said.

“We must speak with one voice and ensure our representation at the national leadership table. This is why other communities can successfully partner in the national government, especially when our votes have been divided and taken advantage of.”

Kisii Senator Onyonka is unhappy with Maraga’s bid, especially after he retiring as head of the Judiciary. Onyonka argued the former CJ is not well-versed in the challenges afflicting the country.

“I think Maraga does not understand the depth of the problems we have. We cannot hand over leadership to him simply because he nullified a presidential petition before him,” he said.

Maraga presided over the court that overturned Kenyatta’s declared election victory, 4-2, saying the electoral commission committed “illegalities and irregularities” in the poll against Raila Odinga. It ordered a rerun.

Chief Justice Maraga said the August 8 election had not been “conducted in accordance with the Constitution” and declared it “invalid, null and void”.

President Kenyatta branded the justices wakora, or crooks, and said the court would be revisited.

Onyonka said Maraga’s moral uprightness does not make him an ideal candidate to steer the country forward, as a president requires many skills.

Maraga has accepted a push by Gen Z, the country’s youngest voters and passionate advocates for change — to go for the country’s top seat.

Their demonstrations in June and July almost cost Ruto his office, until Raila saved him. Gen Z is not alone in supporting Maraga. Onyonka claimed Maraga is a sponsored candidate meant to undermine Matiang’i’s chances.

“Look at who is with him — government operatives! Look at all the government bloggers attacking Matiang’i. Who are the people accompanying him to his functions?” Onyonka said.

Despite this emerging discourse, political heavyweights, including Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila, have dismissed the figures such as Matiang’i, downplaying their potential to disrupt the status quo.

Raila, in particular, sparked backlash when he dismissed Matiang’i’s presidential bid while touring Kisii county, where the Jubilee Party has positioned the former CS as its presidential candidate.

Raila said the former CS would face an uphill battle and struggle to unseat President Ruto, who is now backed by Raila.

“Someone running for the presidency cannot be elected based on Kisii votes, Luo votes, Luhya votes, or even Mt Kenya votes,” Raila said.

While often regarded as political outsiders with limited presidential prospects, figures such as Maraga and Matiang’i are tapping into growing public dissatisfaction, analysts say.

With an increasingly assertive youth vote, high prices, corruption and persistent governance challenges, the Gen Z’s rise and demand for change could signal a shifting political landscape.

Maraga also advised then-President Kenyatta to dissolve the male-dominated Parliament over its failure four times to enact a constitutionally required law on gender balance. His call created a furore and was ignored as impractical by some political observers.