Battle lines drawn as leaders scramble for 2027 numbers

Unlike the last three consecutive presidential contests — in which leading contenders boasted a tyranny of numbers — the 2027 battle is shaping up as an entirely different and uncertain scenario.

In the 2013, 2017, and 2022 presidential elections, top contenders had a clear numerical advantage, enjoying near-fanatical support in key vote-rich regions such as Mt Kenya.

Retired President Uhuru Kenyatta and his then-running mate William Ruto rode to power in 2013 and 2017, due to overwhelming support from the Mt Kenya and Rift Valley regions.

However, the projected main contenders in the 2027 presidential race appear to lack the clear numerical advantage that could guarantee a resounding first-round victory.

This uncertainty, coupled with concerns over a rapidly shifting political landscape, has forced politicians — including President Ruto — into an early campaign mode.

The major players are now making strategic moves to balance their numbers in a fierce scramble for support across the country.

Ruto’s recent political deal with his former archrival-turned-ally Raila Odinga has exposed growing anxiety within his camp regarding political arithmetic.

Meanwhile, the opposition is building a formidable coalition, bringing together key figures from crucial regions to challenge Ruto in 2027.

Former Vice President and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has teamed up with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua to form an alliance.

Also in the coalition is DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, the ‘Super CS and Mr Fixit’ is expected to join.

The opposition bloc claims they have the numbers to make President Ruto a one-term leader, with the Luhya voting bloc considered a crucial piece of their strategy.

WOOING THE LUHYA VOTE

Last month, Gachagua passionately addressed the Luhya community, underscoring its significance in the 2027 election. “It is sad that a large community like the Mulembe Nation is settling for leftovers,” he said.

“Why should such a populous group rely on pity and generosity when it has the numbers to lead? That does not make sense.”

To strengthen his appeal, Gachagua has been courting government critics from western Kenya while positioning himself as a key political player ahead of 2027.

Similarly, Kalonzo has urged the Luhya community to stand united and leverage their numbers to form the next government.

He has backed Gachagua in advocating for the Kikuyu, Meru, Embu and Kamba communities to unite under the Gema umbrella to produce the next president.

Weeks ago, Gachagua said the unity of the four communities that make up Gema is “God’s Doing” after he was impeached and lost the office of DP.

“God, in his own miraculous way has brought us together. We were with President William Ruto, but he chased us away. You guys were with Raila Odinga, but he left you, and God planned that we come together,’’ Gachagua said.

“Let me assure you people of Ukambani, this Gema — the Gikuyu, Embu, Meru and Akamba — is the medicine for this country and I want to assure the Akamba people that this time around with you, we will form government together, and there’s no going back.”

Kalonzo’s Ukambani stronghold has about 1.7 million votes, including Kitui ( 532,758 ),Machakos ( 687,565 ), and Makueni ( 479,401 ).

RUTO’S STRATEGY

President Ruto’s recent decision to scrap the rigorous vetting process for national identification cards in the Northeastern region underscores his focus on securing numerical support.

Analysts suggest this move aims to appease the Somali community in Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, and Garissa — areas that have historically felt marginalised and subjected to an onerous ID card acquisition process.

The Somali community, which has long complained of political exclusion, is expected to play a pivotal role in Ruto’s reelection bid, as most of its prominent leaders have aligned with Kenya Kwanza.

With support in Mt Kenya collapsing following the impeachment of ‘one of their own’, Gachagua, Ruto is aggressively courting the Somali vote to compensate for the loss. Gachagua, aggressively campaigning to consolidate Mt Kenya, has openly warned Ruto.

“Mt Kenya votes will never go to anyone cheaply. Come rain or sunshine, our votes will never make us slaves again. Of all possibilities, Mt Kenya will not be with Ruto in 2027,” he declared in a recent TV interview.

Ruto’s 2022 victory largely was due to support from Mt Kenya’s 10 counties, which contributed nearly two-thirds of his 7.1 million votes.

THE WESTERN KENYA FACTOR

Nyanza and Western Kenya have a combined voting bloc of 5.6 million, according to the 2022 IEBC register. Western Kenya’s Luhya counties alone account for about 2.2 million registered voters.

They include Busia ( 416,756 ), Bungoma ( 646,598 ), Vihiga ( 310,043 ), and Kakamega ( 844,551 ). Raila’s Luo Nyanza base has more than two million voters,including Migori ( 469,019 ), Homa Bay ( 551,071 ), Kisumu ( 606,754 ) and Siaya ( 533,595 ).

However, Ruto’s consolidation strategy in Western Kenya faces potential obstruction from Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who has been vocal about the Luhya community’s role in national politics.

“Our Luhya people are tired of being used. They have the numbers to form a government and will not play second fiddle again,” Natembeya recently said.

The governor has sustained his attacks on the government and criticised President Ruto’s move to scrap vetting for IDs along the borders.

He has urged Ruto to reconsider his decision to abolish the vetting of those seeking ID cards in Northeastern Kenya, citing security threats to the country.

Speaking at the funeral of former Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chairman Wafula Chebukati, Natembeya emphasised the importance of vetting, warning that relaxing these measures could have serious implications.

“I am humbly requesting, with total humility, that instead of removing vetting, we revisit and streamline the process to ensure that those on vetting committees are properly vetted and compensated so Kenyans can obtain their IDs. Vetting does not denyKenyans their IDs, it prevents foreigners from obtaining them, ensuring our national security,” he said.

THE KISII FACTOR

Ruto also faces challenges in the Kisii region (Kisii and Nyamira counties) where rebellion against Raila is growing. There are calls to field either former Chief Justice David Maraga or Matiang’i to challenge Ruto in 2027.

Kisii county has 637,010 registered voters while Nyamira has 323,283 voters. Additionally, thousands of Kisii voters in the diaspora push the community’s projected voting strength to nearly two million.

THE COAST REGION GAMBIT

At the Coast, Ruto is working to inherit Raila’s traditional support base in Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, and Tana River counties.

Former Mombasa Governor (now Blue Economy CS) Hassan Joho, former Kilifi Governor (now Senate Speaker) Amason Kingi and former Kwale Governor (now Sports CS) Salim Mvurya are leading this effort.

The opposition remains confident, banking on the youth (Gen Z) and discontented salaried workers to shift the tide. Gachagua has been rallying formally employed Kenyans against the Kenya Kwanza government, citing excessive taxation.

“The biggest task we have is to defeat Ruto. Payslip holders are three million, and each of them influences at least two others. That’s nine million people who have a personal issue with this administration,” Gachagua said.

IS RUTO DESPERATE?

On Thursday, Nyandarua Senator John Methu said Ruto’s recent political manoeuvres expose him as a leader in panic mode. “The removal of vetting in Northeastern counties exposes his desperation to influence the 2027 elections,” Methu said.

“This is no longer just a numbers game — Kenyans will not vote based on tribal affiliations in 2027.”

Key Somali leaders — including Environment CS Aden Duale — are spearheading Ruto’s campaign in Northeastern Kenya.

Raila, who previously enjoyed strong support in the region, could also play a role in consolidating the Somali vote for Ruto.

According to the 2019 Census, Kenya has a Somali population of 2,780,502, with 1.6 million registered voters. With a significant influx of Somalis into Kenya since 2020 and relaxed ID registration rules, this number is projected to surpass three million by 2027.

Last month, the IEBC disclosed plans to register about 5.6 million new voters for the 2027 elections — primarily Gen Z.

The commission aims to register 2.27 million new voters in the financial year starting July 1 and 3.41 million new voters in the subsequent year.