China’s economic growth in October reflects steady progress and resilience

Chinese workers inspect photovoltaic power generation facilities in Hai'an East, Jiangsu province, on March 15, 2022/ Xinhua

BY STEPHEN NDEGWA

China’s economic growth in October 2024 provides a clear indication of steady progress and resilience amidst global uncertainties. Bolstered by a combination of strategic policy measures, domestic demand and technological advancements, the world’s second-largest economy continues to demonstrate its capacity to adapt and thrive. The latest data highlights robust performances across various sectors, offering optimism not just for China but for the global economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP expanded by 4.8% year-to-date by the close of the third quarter, reaching ¥94.97 trillion (approximately $13.34 trillion). Industrial output grew by 4.5% year-on-year in October, with high-tech manufacturing playing a crucial role, posting a 6.2% increase. These gains are particularly significant as they showcase China’s ability to align its economic recovery with long-term goals of modernisation and sustainability.

The consumer market also displayed strong performance, driven by a resurgence in retail activity. Retail sales grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with online physical goods sales increasing by 12.5%. This growth reflects the effectiveness of measures to boost domestic consumption, such as tax reductions for middle-income households and subsidies for rural buyers. Moreover, October’s week-long National Day holiday provided a notable boost to consumer spending, with billions spent on tourism, dining and shopping.

One of the hallmarks of China’s economic progress has been its strategic focus on technological innovation and green energy. Investment in high-tech sectors, such as semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence, has surged. These industries are not only driving growth domestically but also positioning China as a global leader in cutting-edge technologies.

Simultaneously, China’s push for renewable energy continues to be a standout feature of its economy. As the world’s largest producer of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, the country is playing a pivotal role in global efforts to combat climate change. Investments in renewable energy projects rose sharply in October, contributing to a 3.2% increase in fixed-asset investment. Such efforts align with China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable development.

Despite global economic challenges, including weakened demand in key markets, China’s trade figures remain resilient. Exports grew by 5.3% during the first three quarters, supported by strong performances in sectors such as electric vehicles, machinery and solar technology. This growth underscores the success of China’s "dual circulation" strategy, which aims to balance domestic economic activity with international trade. Notably, China’s trade ties with emerging markets, including countries in Africa and Southeast Asia, have deepened, providing stability amid fluctuating demand from traditional markets in Europe and North America.

The domestic economy has emerged as a key driver of growth, reflecting efforts to shift reliance away from exports. Retail data from October showed a significant increase in spending on household goods, electronics and automobiles. Online shopping festivals, such as Double 11, further boosted consumer confidence, with billions in sales recorded within hours. The government’s proactive stance in stimulating consumption, such as by easing borrowing restrictions and implementing tax relief measures, has significantly contributed to these outcomes.

While China’s overall growth figures are impressive, regional disparities remain a challenge. Coastal provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu, driven by their export-oriented industries, continue to outperform the less-developed inland regions. However, initiatives under the Belt and Road framework and targeted infrastructure investments are helping to bridge these gaps. Development in logistics, transportation and digital infrastructure is creating new opportunities in previously underperforming areas, gradually reducing inequalities and enhancing the economic inclusivity of the broader recovery.

China has shown an ability to tackle such issues proactively. Measures to stabilise the property sector, including refinancing options and support for struggling developers, are beginning to restore confidence. Additionally, reforms to improve local government fiscal health, such as the issuance of special-purpose bonds, are helping to mitigate debt risks.

As China accelerates its digital economy and embraces artificial intelligence, it is poised to capture significant growth potential. Moreover, the nation’s commitment to green technologies ensures it will remain a leader in the global transition to a sustainable future.

China’s steady economic progress in October holds significant implications for the global economy. As a major consumer of raw materials and a leading exporter of manufactured goods, China’s recovery supports demand in commodity-exporting nations, particularly in Africa and Latin America. Furthermore, its leadership in renewable energy is accelerating the global shift toward cleaner technologies, with ripple effects across industries and markets worldwide.

Looking ahead, China remains on track to achieve its annual GDP growth target of approximately 5%. The combination of robust domestic demand, sustained technological advancements, and strategic global partnerships positions the economy for continued stability and growth. As the year heads to a close, the world will continue to watch China’s economic journey with keen interest, recognising its pivotal role in shaping the future of the global economy.

Stephen Ndegwa is the Executive Director of South-South Dialogues, a Nairobi-based communications development think tank, and a PhD student at the United States International University-Africa.