The battle to inherit Raila Odinga's political empire is intensifying, with rival factions led by ODM leader Oburu Oginga and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna stepping up their campaigns in his traditional strongholds.
The competing teams are traversing regions that stood by the former Prime Minister during his more than three decades in politics, seeking to consolidate support and establish themselves as the legitimate custodians of his political legacy.
The contest is increasingly playing out through rival mobilisation campaigns, with the Oburu-led ODM leadership relying on established party structures while Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi faction seeks to build an alternative political platform.
MPs numbers are at the centre of the competition with pundits saying each side has its work cut out to win the desired seats for pre and post-election bargains.
On Saturday, ODM painted Nairobi Orange as it intensified efforts to reclaim its influence in the capital, a key electoral battleground and one of Raila's most important centres of political mobilisation.
The campaign came as Sifuna's faction sought to establish its own claim to the city, setting up a direct confrontation over a political base that the former Prime Minister had cultivated over successive election cycles.
“Nairobi will always be Baba's bedroom; as ODM we will do everything to retain the city and many other traditional bases,” Makadara MP George Aladwa told the Star.
Aladwa, who is also the Nairobi ODM chapter chairman, said the party intended to traverse the entire country to reconnect with its traditional support bases ahead of the 2027 general election.
ODM deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nassir dismissed claims that the party was losing its grip on traditional strongholds, insisting that it remained the natural political home of Raila's supporters despite the internal divisions.
“The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Eventually, everything will be decided by the voters. We strongly believe the hearts of the people are still with ODM,” Nassir said.
ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga also rejected suggestions that the party had been reduced to a shell following the exit of some members led by Sifuna.
She argued that ODM had retained the support of the overwhelming majority of its elected leaders, with more than 100 MPs still aligned to the party.
“If a big tree falls, the birds will always scatter. We also had some turbulence after the death of our leader but we have steadied the ship; the vast majority of our people are still intact under ODM, so don't be worried,” Wanga said.
The Oburu-led faction has been traversing traditional Raila strongholds, using the first anniversary of his death to reconnect with supporters and reinforce ODM's grassroots structures.
The team has toured Western, Kajiado, Nairobi, the Coast, Northeastern and Turkana in a campaign aimed at demonstrating that ODM remains the political home of communities that backed Raila through successive electoral contests.
The campaign is also testing whether the party can retain the extensive political networks the former Prime Minister built beyond his Nyanza backyard, where his influence was entrenched.
But the efforts are facing a growing challenge from the breakaway Linda Mwananchi faction, which is determined to prevent the Oburu-led team from enjoying an uncontested claim to Raila's political constituency.
Sifuna was in Kwale on Saturday, where he pitched his presidential ambitions and promoted his new political outfit as his team intensified efforts to establish a presence in the Coast.
The faction is also planning a political meeting in Turkana, just days after the Oburu-led team visited the region, in what could open another front in the contest over Raila's former support bases.
Bumula MP Jack Wamboka said the rebranded party was considering a rally in Turkana as part of its efforts to counter the Oburu camp's regional mobilisation.
“After the Kwale rally, we will go to Turkana, then we come back to Western Kenya,” Wamboka stated.
The competing visits are increasingly turning Raila's traditional strongholds into political battlegrounds, with both factions seeking to demonstrate their ability to mobilise supporters without relying on the former Prime Minister's personal appeal.
Sifuna's supporters see the campaign as an opportunity to demonstrate that the political networks associated with Raila can be mobilised outside ODM's current leadership.
Funyula MP Wilberforce Oundo said Sifuna was beginning to inherit the political support and influence previously enjoyed by the former Prime Minister.
Oundo pointed to the large and enthusiastic crowds attending Sifuna's political rallies, particularly in Nairobi, saying they were reminiscent of the gatherings Raila attracted during his political engagements.
He singled out Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi as a strategic starting point for the Linda Mwananchi movement, arguing that the venue carried significant political symbolism because of its association with Raila's mobilisation activities.
“It was significant for us to go to Jacaranda because whenever Baba wanted to do anything, there are only two places he went to; Jacaranda and the field in Kibra,” he said.
“We decided to start with Jacaranda to lay our claim on Nairobi.”
Oundo said ODM had lost the political dominance it enjoyed in Nairobi under Raila, creating an opportunity for Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi movement to occupy the space left by the former Opposition chief.
He claimed the orange party leadership lacked the political networks and grassroots influence required to reclaim the capital.
“Everybody knows that ODM's stranglehold in Nairobi is gone. The leadership has no way of infiltrating or claiming Nairobi now. Nairobi has gone to Edwin Sifuna,” he said.
The MP declared that ODM was no longer a major political force in the capital, predicting that Linda Mwananchi and the wider United Opposition would take control of the capital in the 2027 elections.
“ODM is dead in Nairobi; Linda Mwananchi and the United Opposition will take over the capital henceforth. We want to tell them bye-bye from Nairobi and many other parts of the country,” Oundo said.
The remarks expose the growing confidence within Sifuna's camp that it can build a political movement beyond ODM and challenge the party's established networks.
Sifuna has increasingly positioned Linda Mwananchi as a vehicle for mobilising Kenyans ahead of the elections, seeking to turn discontent with the current ODM leadership into a wider political movement.
He has also openly expressed interest in challenging President William Ruto, placing himself among Opposition figures seeking to lead the campaign against the Head of State.
His ambitions, however, are unfolding within an increasingly crowded opposition landscape, where several established politicians are also positioning themselves for the 2027 presidential contest.
They include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang'i, all of whom are seeking to shape the direction of the Opposition's campaign against Ruto.
The battle over Raila's political legacy could therefore have implications beyond ODM's internal divisions, potentially influencing the alliances, leadership contest and presidential ticket negotiations.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Oburu's team is banking on ODM's established structures, elected leaders and party machinery to retain traditional strongholds. Sifuna, on the other hand, is seeking to exploit the political vacuum created by Raila's death and divisions within ODM to build an alternative centre of power. Their competing campaigns could reshape the Opposition's political landscape ahead of 2027.
