The Kenya Meteorological Service has forecast rainfall in parts of 46 counties across the country between October 20 and 26.
In its seven-day weather forecast, the department said rainfall is expected in parts of Meru, Embu, Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia and Lamu.
Others are Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
The department said isolated storms may occur in parts of Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Laikipia, Samburu, Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit counties.
It cautioned that rainfall distribution may vary across the affected counties.
Daytime maximum temperatures averaging above 35 degrees Celsius are expected in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties.
Night-time minimum temperatures are expected to fall below 10 degrees Celsius in parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nakuru and Kajiado counties.
The forecast is valid from Tuesday, October 20, to Monday, October 26, 2026.
According to the department, October marks the onset of the October-November-December short rains season across much of Kenya.
The season begins as the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrates southwards across East Africa, bringing increased moisture and convection.
The department said the Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other intraseasonal weather systems influence the duration and intensity of rainfall during October.
These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and subtropical high-pressure systems.
The much-awaited El Niño rains are expected to commence as early as Thursday this week in several parts of Nyeri County.
Nyeri County Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) Director Peter Wambugu told KNA there is a high likelihood of the county experiencing the first showers of the rains towards the end of this week before their intensity increases in the coming week.
Wambugu nevertheless clarified that much of the rain will start falling from the second and third weeks of October and will continue until January next year.
“We highly predict that Nyeri is among the counties that will start experiencing the first showers of the October-November–December rains towards the end of this week. We hope to share the weather outlook report for the week first before we can ascertain the overall distribution of the rains in the county," he said.
"In addition, the authority is not issuing any advisory to farmers on what type of crops to put in their lands during this season. This responsibility has been left to agricultural extension officers.”
