President William Ruto addresses a meeting in Siaya, September 15, 2026President William Ruto’s five-day
extensive tour of Nyanza has brought to the fore how he is betting big on the
region to give him the much-needed head start for the 2027 race.
Buoyed by the support of the ODM grassroots network in the region, the President pledged a multibillion-shilling development kitty for the region.
The tour lifted the lid on the Kenya Kwanza leader’s high-stakes gambit to replace the Mt Kenya base that arguably propelled him to power in the 2022 race where he faced off with ODM’s Raila Odinga.
Political observers said that Nyanza gives Ruto a semblance of a race, enabling him to start from a position of strength against the opposition.
Nyanza's
four counties hold about 2.35
million voters, with Kisumu having 652,034 voters, Homa Bay (604,624), Siaya (577,673) and Migori (515,639).
Mt Kenya votes accounted for more than half of Ruto’s 7.1 million votes in the 2022 election.
The region gave him about 3.5 million votes, numbers the President appears keen to replace after the haemorrhage triggered by his fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Nyanza is seen as a perfect head start, and is expected to be augmented by the efforts to consolidate Mt Kenya East, which has 1.3 million votes.
Gachagua is seeking to consolidate the Mt Kenya region behind his new political vehicle, the Democracy for Citizens Party, a situation that has made the region’s vote uncertain for Ruto.
The President therefore has to look elsewhere. His strategy appears to be one of consolidating fragments from different regions to make up for the loss of a large traditional base.
Nyanza is one of the most important pieces of that strategy. Coast, Mt Kenya East and Northeastern are also viewed through the same lens.
When he toured Siaya on Tuesday, the President said he was the best bet for the region, and the country at large, urging voters there not to gamble with the opposition.
“We are not going to try, or gamble with the future of our nation with people who have no vision, plan or agenda for the nation,” Ruto said.
The head of state urged the region to rally behind the ODM and UDA faction, positioning it as the surest bet for the region to ascend to power.
It is widely held that the payoff is enormous for the head of state if he manages to convince the former Raila bases to stand with him in the forthcoming race.
Pundits say that the question is not about whether he can use the region to replace what he has lost in Mt Kenya but the perception the Nyanza reception creates in other regions the President is eying.
“Whatever the President is doing is to show the other Raila voting blocs. This is not just a Nyanza affair. Luos are known to be doyens of opposition politics and if they don’t want to be in the [political] cold, who then wants to be?” political scientist Oscar Omondi said.
He said that Nyanza’s support would shore up Ruto’s numbers in other regions as well.
Luos are among the country’s four big tribes besides Kikuyu, Kalenjin, and Luhya whose support is significant in the country’s political arithmetic.
But some quarters disagree. Eric Okeyo, a businessman from the region who is leaning to the opposition, said the numbers are for Kalonzo Musyoka and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sfiuna to grab.
“The original Raila bedrock will be available for Sifuna/Kalonzo respectively since the two served Raila loyally as SG [secretary-general] and running mate respectively,” he said.
“The Luo generally owes them (Kalonzo and Sifuna) a deed of returning the favour compared to the empowerment stipends and the chopper largesse exhibited by the Ruto protagonists.”
Even so, leaders from the region who accompanied the President on his tour, pledged their commitment to support the head of state and to champion the two-term cause.
Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) said that the government’s interventions in Nyanza would yield the much needed vote.
“This region has lagged behind for years. This is the regime that has attended to our needs, for the first time extending power to other regions. We are with him, and are united behind him,” Wandayi said.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga said the visitshowed Ruto’s love for the region.
The county chief even drew comparisons with Uhuru Kenyatta, whom the region banked on for the 2022 election, saying Ruto’s treat can’t compare.
“There are people telling us to leave government to go work with opposition. We cannot accept that as a region,” Wanga said, projecting a unified voice in support for Ruto’s bid.
Among the key gains of the tour was Raila Jr's public endorsement which played out during the Kisumu series of the tours.
“Your excellency, for me, I'd like to say I am supporting you and I'm behind you fully", the Kibra MP hopeful said.
The endorsement by Raila’s son was seen as a significant boost to Ruto's efforts to win over a region that for decades has been associated with his former political nemesis.
The political equation in Nyanza has changed following the former ODM leader’s death, with the broad-based arrangement between Kenya Kwanza and ODM shaping up as the future.
President Ruto declared that the broad-based political team was the only formation with the capacity to unite the country, dismissing the Kalonzo side as lacking agenda.
Ruto said the broad-based arrangement had a proven track record, a vision for the country's future and
“Our nation is too important to be left in the hands of leaders without a plan, an agenda or a vision,” he said.
The President is expected to continue his development tour of Nyanza today in Migori after successful tours of Kisumu and Siaya, and would later head to Homa Bay.
In Siaya, he inspected Dhogoye Bridge in Usenge, Sihayi-Bar Ober-Sega road in Ugenya, Siaya hospital and Siaya Stadium, as well as the Kodiaga-Rabango-Usenge road in Alego Usonga.
“The Nyanza tour should be best understood as a desperate bid to convert the political vacuum left by Raila Odinga into institutional support for the 2027 election, rather than a genuine realignment of the region's voting base,” political pundit Albert Kasembeli said.
In Kisumu, Ruto commissioned the Lake Victoria Water and Sanitation project and defended the government's affordable housing programme.
He said Sh44 billion had been allocated for 12,000 housing units, 20 markets and 12,000 hostel beds in the county.
He also commissioned an eight-storey aviation control tower at Kisumu International Airport, a Sh1 billion project funded by the national government.
In Siaya, Ruto announced that the county could host nuclear power generation of between 2,000MW and 5,000MW, with the project intended to position Nyanza among electricity-producing regions.
Construction of a 2,000MW nuclear power plant in Siaya is targeted to begin next year, to be commissioned in 2034.
For
pundits, and especially those in Ruto camp, a shift in the region’s vote in
favour of the current regime would railroad the opposition.
Omondi said that with Nyanza aligned, the other Raila bases such as Western, Coast and urban centres are likely to follow suit.
“The reception in carries psychological value. It will psych up the other regions,” the pundit said.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Ruto’s Nyanza offensive signals a strategic attempt to rebuild his 2027 coalition after losing ground in Mt Kenya. Beyond winning votes, the President wants Nyanza’s symbolic realignment to influence Western Kenya, Coast and urban voters. But Raila’s former base is not automatically transferable, and development pledges and political endorsements will face competing claims from Kalonzo, Sifuna and other opposition leaders.
