President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Odinga at the UDA-ODM Joint Parliamentary Group meeting, March 10, 2026 /REBECCA NDUKU /PCS
Fierce battle for parliamentary, Senate and governor seats have put coalition leaders on a collision course with foot soldiers
The stiff competition is playing out prominently in what were once Raila Odinga strongholds, putting some of the incumbents on edge.
In Mombasa, ODM Governor Abdulswamad Nassir is heading for a potential face-off with UDA secretary general Hassan Omar, who has stepped up his bid for the governorship.
“If someone is confident about the support they enjoy, what is the problem in letting other parties field candidates as well?” Omar said.
His position could complicate efforts to agree on a joint candidate or zone seats between the two parties.
Nairobi is also emerging as a tough balancing act for ODM and UDA, with indications that Governor Johnson Sakaja could be forced to switch parties. Already, Ruto has endorsed Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang’o, for the city Senate seat.
Kajiado is also turning out to be another potential flashpoint after Governor Joseph Lenku threatened to lead residents in walking out of ODM if party leaders continued drumming up support for UDA aspirants.
In Kilifi, the ticket headache is cited as one of the reasons former CS Aisha Jumwa decamped to Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party as she seeks the governorship.
ODM’s Gideon Mung’aro is the frontrunner, while former 2022 governor candidate George Kithi is expected to seek the UDA ticket.
UDA is reportedly pushing to occupy all seats in Lamu, Tana River and Taita Taveta, while Kwale could see the two parties share the ticket.
The headache is also likely to play out in Turkana, where ODM Governor Jeremiah Lomorukai has already shifted his political base to UDA.
It remains unclear how the ruling party would treat Loima MP Protus Akuja, who has also declared his bid to unseat Lomorukai.
In Wajir, Governor Ahmed Abdullahi has declared that any party other than ODM is not welcome to compete for seats in the region.
In Busia, ODM’s Paul Otuoma is bracing for a jostle with a number of UDA luminaries, among them former CS Ababu Namwamba, PS Susan Mang’eni and Arthur Osiya.
It is understood that constituencies and governor seats will either be zoned or subjected to joint nominations, with the Coast expected to be one of the biggest testing grounds.
“All seats in Luo Nyanza will be zoned, Coast will be mostly joint, but Rift Valley counties will be free for all. The indicators are the by-election... we competed with UDA in Turkana, Narok etc,” an ODM source said.
The source said the negotiations would largely affect former Raila strongholds.
“Some will be zoned, some they will do joint nominations,” the source said.
The prospect of one side being asked to step aside for the other is already generating unease, with politicians reluctant to sacrifice their ambitions for a coalition deal negotiated by party leaders.
“Zoning will be applied based on the strength and popularity of the various parties across the country,” Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma said.
ODM wants a technical team jointly formed to map out the country and establish electoral areas that would require zoning or joint tickets.
The proposal, however, risks triggering fresh battles within the coalition, particularly among politicians who believe they have the numbers to win their seats regardless of the party arrangement.
The tension has already surfaced at the Coast, where a purported agreement on how UDA and ODM would share political seats caused uproar before ODM dismissed the document as fake.
Regardless of its authenticity, the incident exposed the sensitivity of the issue, with politicians increasingly asking whether the coalition will require that they surrender seats they have spent years seeking to capture.
An MP who has spent five years building a political base is unlikely to quietly surrender a ticket because party leaders have reached a deal in Nairobi. The same applies to governors and senators seeking re-election.
The result could be parallel campaigns within the coalition, with UDA and ODM politicians campaigning against each other even as their national leaders preach unity.
Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad, however, played down the emerging tensions.
“I believe the parties will agree amicably. We wouldn’t want to cast aspersions on the process,” he said.
But the possibility of rebellion remains.
Politicians who lose nominations could decide to run as independents or seek tickets from rival parties, turning the coalition’s internal disputes into an electoral threat.
The crisis could be more severe in areas where ODM has traditionally been dominant but UDA has made inroads since the 2022 election.
The two parties' efforts to either zone seats or field joint candidates have received mixed reactions, with some MPs arguing that races should be left open.
“If you have credible nomination, you don’t have to worry about zoning. Those who want direct tickets are the ones proposing that we negotiate,” Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said.
ODM has repeatedly pushed for parity in the partnership, arguing that it should not enter the alliance simply as a support vehicle for Ruto’s re-election.
ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga previously said the party expects a 50-50 arrangement when seats are put on the table.
That position could collide head-on with the ambitions of UDA politicians who see themselves as natural candidates in their respective areas.
“We have to listen to the people. Those who have delivered to the people should have no fear of competition,” Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo said.
The crisis therefore goes beyond the question of which party gets the Deputy President position, which UDA appears keen to retain despite ODM’s push for the slot.
It now threatens to become a fight over political survival for hundreds of politicians across the country.
Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga therefore face the difficult task of selling the coalition to politicians whose immediate concern is who gets onto the ballot in the first place.
While ODM has pushed for a significant role in Ruto’s next team, UDA has its own ambitions and a large group of politicians who expect to benefit from the President’s re-election.
