Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has claimed President William Ruto can secure re-election in 2027 even without significant support from the Mt Kenya region.
He argued that votes from other parts of the country could be enough to propel him to a second term.
Kuria said a strong performance by Ruto in Mt Kenya would therefore be an added advantage rather than a requirement for the President's re-election.
Speaking during an interview with Citizen TV, Kuria said Ruto would only need a modest share of the Mt Kenya vote to turn the region into a bonus in his re-election bid.
“If the President gets 13 per cent of the vote in Mt Kenya, that would be a very big win for him. It would be a bonus, more than he needs. It's excess of what he needs,” Kuria said.
Kuria based his projection on what he described as the distribution of Kenya's electorate across eight major voting blocs.
“In my projection, President William Ruto is going to be reelected without the Mt Kenya vote, so if he wins the 13 per cent he got in Ol Kalou by-election, it can only be a bonus,” he said.
“Figures do not lie; it is liars who figure.”
Kuria said he divides the country into eight major political blocs and argued that Ruto already enjoys strong support in four of them.
“I divide the country into eight blocs,” he said.
“The President has got four blocs with him. He has got the Coastal bloc, North Eastern bloc, the Kalenjin-Maasai-Turkana-Samburu bloc and Luo Nyanza bloc.”
According to Kuria, the four blocs collectively account for about 10.2 million voters, giving Ruto what he considers a substantial base heading into the 2027 election.
He argued that the likelihood of Ruto suffering significant losses in the four regions was low, forming the basis of his projection that the President could cross the threshold required for re-election without relying heavily on Mt Kenya.
“Likelihood of Ruto losing votes in the four regions is very low,” Kuria said.
Kuria said the remaining major voting blocs include Mt Kenya West, Lower Eastern and Kisii Nyanza, which he estimated to account for about 9.7 million voters.
“Now Mt Kenya West, Lower Eastern, Kisii Nyanza account for 9.7 million voters. There is a difference of about 500,000 votes,” he said.
He identified Mt Kenya East and Western Kenya as swing regions that could ultimately determine the shape of the 2027 contest.
“Then we have the swings, Mt Kenya East and Western Kenya, so it boils down to that,” Kuria said.
Mt Kenya remains one of the country's most closely watched political regions because of its large voter population and its role in determining the outcome of presidential elections.
The region overwhelmingly backed Ruto in the 2022 presidential election but has since witnessed significant political realignments, with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua emerging as one of the leading political figures seeking to influence the region's voting pattern.
Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party has been seeking to consolidate support in Mt Kenya, while Ruto's allies have stepped up efforts to retain a foothold in the region.
Kuria, who previously served in Ruto's administration, has nevertheless maintained that the President's re-election prospects should not be judged solely by his performance in Mt Kenya.
“In my projection, the President is going to be reelected even without a single vote from Mt Kenya region,” he said.
