A strengthening El Niño coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to reshape Kenya's weather in the coming months. /WMO
A strong El Niño is developing and is expected to strengthen between August and October, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) saying the climate phenomenon is steadily intensifying and is likely to drive significant shifts in global rainfall patterns.
The WMO says wetter conditions are expected in some regions, while an increasing likelihood of above-normal temperatures could heighten the risk of drought, heatwaves and other extreme weather events in other parts of the world over the coming months.
According to the agency, forecasts from leading global weather centres indicate that seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C.
Latest analyses also show that heat stored beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific has reached the highest levels ever recorded, with temperature anomalies of around +9°C in some subsurface layers.
Researchers say this means a vast amount of heat remains trapped below the surface and could support the continuation and strengthening of El Niño as the warm water mass moves from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific, where El Niño develops.
Some meteorologists say these indicators increase the likelihood that the current El Niño could rank among the strongest on record.
"It is now official that the Super El Niño formed on July 31, 2026. Thus, there is no longer any need for debate regarding the chances of its formation. Especially since this has not yet ended and will continue to climb by 0.1 per cent every week," Prof Erma Yulihastin, a climatologist and expert on extreme climate and weather at the Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, said on X on August 2.
Closer home, the WMO said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — a climate pattern in which the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average — is also forecast.
"Together, these oceanic drivers can amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin," the WMO said in its latest monthly forecast.
This means there is a very high likelihood — exceeding 80 to 90 per cent — that Kenya will experience above-normal rainfall, with a heightened risk of severe flooding as the positive Indian Ocean Dipole channels excess moisture towards the East African coast.
Mombasa and much of the coastal strip are expected to bear the brunt of the heavy rainfall, although low-lying areas, northeastern counties and poorly drained urban centres, including Nairobi, also face an elevated risk of flash floods.
Potential consequences include damage to roads, bridges and other infrastructure, while contaminated water sources could increase the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera.
Heavy rainfall could also trigger soil erosion, cause dams and reservoirs to overflow, and threaten downstream communities, farms and crops.
The WMO said the forecast provides governments and communities with enough time to prepare for the expected impacts.
"Forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow. WMO and its Members are committed to ensuring that credible and relevant climate information reaches those that need it most," WMO secretary general Celeste Saulo said.
The agency added that it will issue an updated climate outlook in early September, providing a broader assessment of seasonal conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including conditions in the Atlantic Ocean.
"WMO is intensifying its mobilisation of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimise the impacts of El Niño," it said.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has urged countries to accelerate the transition to clean energy, warning that continued reliance on fossil fuels is worsening the climate crisis.
Secretary general António Guterres said unless the world tackles the root causes of climate change, the impacts will become increasingly severe.
"El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act," he said.
"More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event."
