ODM leaders during the ODM Youth Convention in Busia County on June 28, 2026 / HANDOUTThe Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has edged past President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to become Kenya's most popular political party, according to the latest Tifa opinion survey.
The survey released on Friday shows ODM commanding the support of 20 per cent of Kenyans, compared to UDA's 17 per cent, making it the first time in the latest tracking period that the party has emerged ahead of the ruling party, marking a significant shift in party support ahead of the 2027 general election.
The findings indicate that ODM has steadily recovered over the past year, rising from 13 per cent in August 2025 to 20 per cent in June 2026.
UDA, on the other hand, has remained largely unchanged, moving from 17 per cent in August 2025 to 18 per cent in November 2025 before settling back at 17 per cent in both May and June this year.
Tifa said the overall distribution of support among political parties has remained relatively stable over the last 10 months, with only a few notable changes.
"Over the last 10 months the distribution of support for political parties has been quite stable, with these few exceptions: (1) a slight decline in that for DCP (from 16-12 per cent since May 2026); (2) a slight increase in ODM's popularity as compared to UDA (3 vs. 1 per cent ); (3) a slight increase of those who support no party since last May (4 per cent) though still far below what it was in May of last year (28 vs. 41 per cent)," the survey stated.
Besides ODM's rise, the poll found that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) registered the sharpest decline among the major political parties.
Support for DCP dropped from 16 per cent in May to 12 per cent in June, although it still remains above the six per cent it recorded in November 2025.
Jubilee Party remained relatively stable, slipping marginally from 11 per cent in both November 2025 and May 2026 to 10 per cent in June.
Wiper Democratic Movement also recorded a slight decline, dropping from eight per cent in May to seven per cent in June after rising steadily from four per cent in August 2025.
Support for other political parties stood at six per cent in June, compared to five per cent in May and 12 per cent in August last year.
The survey further shows that 28 per cent of Kenyans currently do not identify with any political party.
While that represents an increase from 24 per cent recorded in May, it remains significantly lower than the 41 per cent recorded in August 2025, suggesting more Kenyans are gradually aligning themselves with political parties as the country inches closer to the next general election.
The findings come at a time when political parties have intensified grassroots mobilisation, recruitment drives and coalition talks ahead of the 2027 polls.
Tifa said although the results provide an accurate snapshot of public opinion during the survey period, they should be interpreted within the context of unfolding political events.
The findings are contained in the first release of TIFA's second national survey of 2026, conducted between June 13 and June 22 through face-to-face household interviews with 2,048 randomly selected Kenyan adults aged 18 and above across all 47 counties.
Tifa said the sample accurately reflects Kenya's adult population and that the survey focused on the current political environment and issues surrounding the 2027 general election.
It added that while the findings capture public opinion during the survey period, subsequent political events may have influenced public attitudes.
