United Opposition leaders/FILEFormer Interior CS Fred Matiang'i and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna face a major political test as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka emerges as the favourite to carry the United Opposition presidential flag.
Latest endorsements, alleged boardroom deal and political alignments have strengthened Kalonzo's position.
The development present fresh test for Matiang'i and Sifuna, who have upped political activities to steady their presidential bids.
Sifuna is leading the Linda Mwananchi group, which has taken the country by storm, while the former CS has secured the backing of his Jubilee party and even resigned from a top World Bank job to focus on his bid.
The latest boost for Kalonzo came on Sunday when the Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi endorsed Kalonzo.
"If I'm not selected as the presidential candidate, the only other principal in the United Opposition I can support is Kalonzo. Let's stop beating about the bush," Muturi said during a church service in Kamulu.
His remarks reinforced growing claims that senior opposition leaders are quietly rallying behind the former vice president.
The next powerful slot could be that of the running mate.
This could be the next battleground pitting Sifuna against Matiang’i.
There is also quiet lobbying for the running mate slot to be given to Mount Kenya, because of their numerical strength.
With the unrelenting competition, there are fears that the opposition lineup must be carefully managed or it could precipitate a fallout.
Kalonzo's endorsement by Muturi followed recent remarks by the Wiper leader and his allies that Gachagua had endorsed him for the top job.
"You've heard how Senator Enoch Wambua has passionately explained to you what is happening and even shared privileged information. Everything he has said, I want to confirm. That's exactly how things are," Kalonzo said.
He urged supporters to remain united.
"We must continue fighting and as we traverse every corner of this country, have faith. We shall definitely make it," he said.
Wambua had earlier claimed opposition leaders had settled on Kalonzo. He said the Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua was preparing Mt Kenya voters to support the Wiper boss.
"This is the candidate our leaders have already agreed on. Once Gachagua finishes his consultations, he will officially announce to his people that the United Alternative Government presidential candidate is Kalonzo," Wambua said.
Although the former DP has denied endorsing Kalonzo, his recent statements have fuelled speculation that the two are working closely.
DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa has also remained politically close to Kalonzo.
Insiders say he has a soft spot for Kalonzo and is likely to support the Wiper leader.
Both Matiang'i and Sifuna have spent months building national profiles.
Both hope to lead the opposition against Ruto.
Kalonzo's growing acceptability among coalition leaders now threatens those ambitions.
Since returning home, Matiang’i has stepped up political activities across the country. He has also intensified campaigns in Mt Kenya while consolidating support in Kisii.
Widely seen as former President Uhuru Kenyatta's preferred candidate, he has rejected a boardroom deal.
Instead, he wants the coalition to pick its flagbearer through opinion polls and other objective criteria.
That position has found support from People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua.
" There has to be an agreed methodology, not whims of one or two. Decision making must be collegial, not dictatorship. Structure and rules first. Otherwise it's the rule of the jungle," Karua said.
Her remarks reflect concerns that a negotiated deal could split the coalition before the election.
Sifuna has also emerged as one of the opposition's fastest-rising politicians.
The Nairobi senator has gained national attention through his Linda Mwananchi campaign. His message on governance and the high cost of living has resonated with many young voters.
He has also expanded his influence in western Kenya.
Recently, leaders allied to the Linda Mwananchi movement endorsed him for the presidency during a strategy meeting hosted by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi later declared that Western leaders allied to the movement would rally behind Sifuna in 2027.
The endorsement strengthened Sifuna's credentials. It also added another presidential hopeful to an already crowded field.
Political analysts say Kalonzo's growing momentum complicates matters for both Matiang'i and Sifuna.
Unlike the two, the former VP has contested the presidency before. He remains one of the country's most experienced opposition leaders.
He also commands a strong voting bloc in Ukambani and enjoys long-standing ties with key coalition principals.
His growing list of endorsements increases the chances of the coalition settling on him through consensus instead of a competitive nomination.
That could lock out Matiang'i and Sifuna before the race even begins.
Political analyst Prof Kaburu Kinoti says Matiang'i remains one of the opposition's strongest candidates.
"Matiang'i is tough and that is good, especially facing someone like President Ruto. Even if the opposition loses, they will be able to keep the government in check," he said.
However, analysts warn that choosing Kalonzo without a transparent process carries risks.
Matiang'i has built support among Gen Z, Kisii and parts of Mt Kenya. Sifuna has attracted young voters and is steadily gaining influence in Western.
Overlooking the two could discourage sections of those voting blocs. It could also weaken the opposition's message of offering fresh leadership.
The debate has also exposed emerging camps within the coalition.
Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni says the biggest challenge is agreeing on a credible selection process.
"There is no agreed formula. The boardroom approach will not work. Kenyans already have a candidate in mind. If you give them the wrong person, millions of voters will stay home," Kioni said.
His remarks suggest the opposition is increasingly divided between leaders backing Kalonzo and those pushing for an open contest.
