Last week, there was outrage across the country following comments made by UDA secretary general Hassan Omar, which appeared to profile the Kikuyu community.
In reality, however, the rising anti-Kikuyu sentiment had been widespread within regime networks, including their partners in the broad-based faction of ODM. Omar may have seemed reckless in his comments, but the recklessness had been on for weeks within the political class.
It is easy to see the source of desperation within the Ruto regime. Impeached former DP Rigathi Gachagua has led a vicious political campaign against the President in his central Kenya backyard, a campaign which has practically eroded Ruto’s erstwhile support in the region to levels unforeseen.
In response, the head of state’s associates have responded by painting the Democracy for Citizens Party leader black, but often not drawing a distinction between the former DP and his ethnic community.
Until last week, the ethnic political undertones targeting the Kikuyu community had come mostly from the ODM faction that supports the government, where its top officials have loudly cited historical grievances against former Kikuyu regimes as a basis for whipping up tribal emotions.
Indeed, senior leaders like ODM leader Oburu Oginga and National Treasury CS John Mbadi have been consistent at this, going as far as questioning the legitimacy of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2022 desire to have the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga succeed him.
There is an electoral permutation to explain this. Having lost the Mt Kenya community, Ruto needs another huge voting bloc to anchor his reelection bid on.
And the one that is dependent and large enough is the Luo Nyanza base, previously loyal to Raila. But to achieve this, his strategists have to keep the Luo politically as far away from the Kikuyu as possible.
The methods and rhetoric may appear unsavoury and divisive, with possible damaging long-term effects, but Kenya’s political class has never been one to consider long-term consequences of actions.
While all this has been going on, something else has been happening: the rise of Nairobi senator and ODM SG Edwin Sifuna as a national sensation in Kenya’s politics.
It’s an almost hilarious narration, if ever there was one. When the ODM National Executive Committee met at a coastal resort to remove its SG, everyone expected it to be a smooth and quick move. Instead, the monumental fumbles by the party over the process, plus the instant sympathy that Sifuna generated following the purported removal, changed the trajectory of everything and caught the broad-based partners flat-footed.
At first, it started as an online youth movement rallying around the embattled SG with their catchy ‘sisi ndio Sifuna’ clarion call. But after the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi movement, born out of the fallout in ODM, made several well-received tours of several counties, it was obvious that a powerful movement had been born out of the supposed persecution of the senator.
A recent Tifa poll indicated that Sifuna and his group had ultimately grabbed more than 70 per cent of the ODM base, and the other faction loyal to Oburu was gasping for breath, with the worst yet to come for the latter.
Because of Sifuna’s rise in stature on the national platform, the dynamics have been changing rapidly in his Western homeland. Indeed, several leaders, including Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Lurambi MP Titus Khamala, have openly stated that marketing President Ruto in the neighbourhood has become an uphill task, a fact attributed to the growing influence of a son of the Mulembe nation as an emerging presidential candidate and a darling of the masses in the hinterland. It looks like the dream of politician Musa Amalemba, for a united Luhya position on the national stage, may finally come to fruition, more than 70 years later.
The Luhya community is a collection of several sub-tribes, often taking diverse political routes at election time. The return of multiparty politics in 1992 brought this to the fore in the most glaring way. In that election, the Bukusu of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia aligned with Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s Ford Kenya, while the larger Kakamega and Busia cast their lot with President Moi’s Kanu and Kenneth Matiba’s Ford Asili.
It is only until 2002, when a national movement disenchanted by the long Kanu rule and lining up behind Mwai Kibaki for the presidency in that year’s election, that a large portion of the Mulembe people joined other Kenyans in ushering in the Narc rule with an overwhelming mandate. But even then, the sub-regional fault lines were always there, hindering any long-term community homogeneity in pursuit of political power.
Part of the reason for this has always been that the community has hardly ever had a political son or daughter with the requisite national influence to go ahead and become a unifying personality across the Western region.
Before their deaths in 1992 and 2003, respectively, politicians Masinde Muliro and Wamalwa Kijana seemed destined for big national roles in the country, which would have placed them firmly in a position to consolidate the Western bloc and make it a giant player in Kenyan politics. We will never know what might have been in their cases.
But the rapid rise of Sifuna and the support he continues to elicit from other leaders within the Luhya nation now point to something spectacular emerging.
Indeed, some of the leaders earlier expected to stand in his way, like Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, have already expressed support for the Nairobi senator, should he emerge as the light of the community in the 2027 electoral cycle. In the meantime, there is discernible panic and anxiety among politicians not aligned to Sifuna in Western, especially the old guards who have spent decades striking sweet deals at election time.
The Western region had 2.2 million voters on offer in the 2022 general election. It is expected to surpass the three million mark in 2027. However, it has never harnessed this large resource into a powerful single bloc, the way that Luo Nyanza, Central and Kalenjin Rift Valley do every election time.
Of course, there have been interests served by the continued division of the Luhya vote into several disparate political formations, just like a united Luhya front would pose a challenge to these interests.
It is actually an interesting fact that the ability of one individual to effectively unite his community into a single voting bloc relies so much on that individual’s influence among other tribes.
Tribal numbers are easily mobilised on the belief that the local kingpin is accepted in other regions, and therefore stands a real chance to either deliver the ultimate prize of the presidency or to hit high enough for a consequential compromise.
The youth renaissance that has propelled Sifuna to the top of Kenyan politics in such a short time, and made him now a permanent feature in presidential opinion polls and top contender, has also become the tool through which he may finally become the first man to unite the Luhya nation in the coming election.
It is still early days, and no one can yet tell what seat the Nairobi senator will run for. But as the regime and its surrogates unleash dangerous anti-Kikuyu political rhetoric, the Luhya are experiencing a positive tribal awakening in the emergence of their son as a national unifying symbol and therefore, ultimately, the Luhya unity that will be a key cog in his presidential ambitions.
Amalemba must be smiling in his grave.
