Why ODM walks into talks at Ruto’s mercy

ODM is entering anticipated talks with the ruling UDA from a weakened position, with internal divisions and early political concessions tilting the balance in favour of President William Ruto.

Beyond the split that has seen one wing drift away with secretary general Edwin Sifuna, a section of key leaders aligned to Oburu Oginga has publicly declared its irrevocable support for Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.

This has effectively undermined ODM’s ability to play hardball at the negotiating table.

The Oburu team has insisted it will accept nothing short of the deputy presidency, while pushing for real “power” in the post-2027 political order.

The situation is further complicated by five influential ODM Cabinet secretaries who have made it clear they expect the Orange Party to back Ruto’s reelection.

They include John Mbadi (National Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) and Beatrice Askul (EAC).

Oparanya, a founding member of ODM, on Friday warned that the Western Kenya bloc could reconsider its position in the party over concerns about respect.

“I want to tell those leaders of ODM, this time, do not take us for granted. Raila respected us. Now, those leading ODM after Raila’s death should also respect us. If they do not respect us, we will quit,” Oparanya said in Lugari on Friday.

“They have forgotten the people of Western. We also want power. They should not think that they are the only ones who want power.”

His remarks have amplified concerns that the party could be facing a broader internal fallout.

Further complicating matters is a growing trend of regional kingpins within ODM engaging in backchannel negotiations with the President.

These individual overtures—often outside formal party structures—have raised questions about discipline and loyalty within the party.

Some leaders are reportedly prioritising regional interests and personal political survival over collective party strategy, undermining ODM’s ability to negotiate as a cohesive bloc.

In the Coast region, for instance, leaders from both ODM and UDA have been holding a series of meetings widely seen as efforts to rally the region behind the President’s re-election bid.

The meetings, which began last Wednesday, brought together Joho, UDA secretary general Hassan Omar, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and Sports CS Salim Mvurya, alongside ODM deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nassir and Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro.

Last week, Nassir told the Star the meetings were purely consultative.

“It was just a consultative meeting on the way forward, and how we are going to work together as a broad-based formation to make sure that even the Coast region gets development,” Nassir said.

He said leaders were focused on strengthening the region and consulting on what needed to be done to realise that goal.

“That (the Coast region) is our priority,” Nassir said. “We are like-minded people. We should put politics aside and work for the people.”

Adding to the party’s woes, several Members of Parliament in the Oburu faction have openly backed Ruto’s re-election.

Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said ODM has little option but to support the President, arguing it is in the party’s best interest.

“ODM has no presidential candidate other than President William Ruto and the party will rally behind him in next year’s elections,” Elisha told the Star by phone.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita also downplayed any 2027 arrangement outside the broad-based setup, saying the current system has delivered.

“In my view, our best and only bet so far is the broad-based government arrangement with UDA; the other purported coalitions will have no room in our regions,” Nyamita said.

Analysts warn that such early endorsements risk handing UDA a strategic advantage.

Days before his death, Raila Odinga had warned members against such premature commitments.

Even as ODM pushes to retain its current Cabinet slots, it has also laid claim to the deputy presidency and is demanding a 50-50 share of government—demands that appear increasingly difficult to sustain.

University don Gitile Naituli said that with key figures openly backing the incumbent and internal dissent growing, ODM risks entering the talks with diminished bargaining power.

“ODM’s strategic miscalculation lies in underestimating the cost of this fragmentation. A political party derives its strength not from the prominence of its individual leaders, but from its ability to act as a coherent bloc,” Prof. Naituli told the Star.

“It is this coherence that gives it bargaining power, electoral weight and narrative clarity. Once that coherence is compromised, the party ceases to be a collective actor and becomes a platform for individual negotiation.”

Further eroding ODM’s competitive edge at the negotiating table is the deepening split between two rival factions—Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground—whose parallel mobilisation strategies have served to weaken the yet-to-start talks.

Linda Ground is led by Party Leader Oburu Oginga, while Linda Mwananchi is convened by embattled secretary general Edwin Sifuna.

The factions, each claiming to represent the true grassroots voice, have been pulling in different directions, making it difficult for the party to present a unified front.

The infighting has not only confused supporters but also handed UDA a strategic advantage.

According to Naituli, a divided ODM weakens its leverage in structured talks, allowing Ruto’s camp to dictate terms or selectively engage leaders deemed more cooperative.

ODM, he noted, is already the weaker side even before the negotiating table is set—pointing to recent statements by the party demanding “respect” from its broad-based partner.

“There is a moment in politics when language betrays reality, when what is said publicly exposes what is unfolding privately. ODM’s recent statement ‘demanding respect’ from UDA is one such moment,” Naituli argued.

“It is not merely a weak statement; it is a revealing one. For in politics, respect is not demanded. It is enforced through leverage. And when a party finds itself asking for it, the uncomfortable truth is that it has already ceded ground.”

Political analyst Martin Andati also cast doubt on ODM’s bargaining strength, arguing the party is unlikely to dictate terms in the looming talks.

He said ODM’s internal divisions and shrinking numerical strength in key political arenas have significantly weakened its negotiating position, leaving it with little choice but to accept what is put on the table.

“You don’t negotiate from a position of weakness. No one bargains seriously with a side that lacks numbers,” he said.

Analysts warn that unless ODM urgently reins in its internal divisions, it risks being outmanoeuvred before talks even begin.

The Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction has already issued irreducible minimums ahead of any engagement with the Oburu Oginga camp.

Former ODM deputy party leader and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi said the party must first rescind the decision to remove them from office and disengage from the two-term campaign.

He also demanded that ODM review its decision to exit Azimio and freeze any plans to negotiate with UDA to allow for broader consultations.

“If they are ready for that, then we can sit down with them. But if they are not, we are considering even getting one million ODM supporters to take over Orange House,” he told the Star.

Acting ODM Secretary General Catherine Omanyo, however, dismissed the demands, saying no amount of concession can persuade those determined to leave the party.

“If someone decides to leave, whatever you try to give them will not matter; they will still leave. I have parked myself in SG and settled just fine. The party is still solid and we are all set,” Omanyo said on Wednesday.