Kenya could face one of its strongest El Niño events in decades this year, with forecasters warning of heightened risks of heavy rainfall, flooding and widespread disruption if current projections hold.
Global models indicate a roughly 60 per cent probability that El Niño will develop between June and August and persist into 2027, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration placing the likelihood at 61 per cent for the May–July period.
While increased rainfall could boost agricultural production, benefiting crops such as maize and beans, experts warn the potential gains could be offset by the risk of floods, infrastructure damage and displacement.
Memories of the devastating 1997-98 El Niño remain fresh, when prolonged rains triggered widespread flooding, destroyed roads and bridges, disrupted transport and displaced thousands of families, particularly in the Coast, Northeastern and Eastern regions.
The World Meteorological Organization, however, has cautioned that forecasts at this stage remain uncertain, urging close monitoring of evolving conditions.
The agency also warned that such climate events are now unfolding against the backdrop of global warming, which is intensifying extreme weather patterns and increasing the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures and rainfall.
As Kenya braces for the possibility of a powerful El Niño, the forecasts underscore the urgent need for early preparedness measures to mitigate potential disasters while maximising agricultural benefits.
Quote of the Day: “When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.” —Scottish naturalist and discoverer John Muir was born on April 21, 1838
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