MALIBA: Nairobi’s water breakthrough is real, but planning discipline will determine longevity

For much of its post-independence history, Nairobi has lived with a persistent and often debilitating water deficit—one that has shaped settlement patterns, constrained economic productivity, and normalised rationing as a feature of urban life.

Yet, for the first time in decades, there is a credible basis for cautious optimism. A convergence of major supply-side interventions—most notably the rehabilitation of the Ng’ethu Water Treatment Plant, the commissioning of Northern Collector Tunnel II, and the development of Maragua IV—signals a turning point in the city’s long struggle to secure adequate potable water.

Taken together, these projects substantially augment raw water conveyance and treatment capacity into the Nairobi metropolitan system. In practical terms, they promise to narrow, and potentially eliminate, the structural supply gap that has historically left large sections of the city underserved.

Data and project briefs from the Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company and the Nairobi government consistently point to a long-standing deficit between supply and demand, with available capacity trailing need by significant margins measured in hundreds of thousands of cubic metres per day.

Within this broader shift, it is also notable that the current county administration has placed sustained emphasis on stabilising Nairobi’s water systems. While water infrastructure delivery is inherently multi-agency and cumulative in nature, the coordination of ongoing works, rehabilitation efforts, and expansion projects has positioned water as one of the more visible areas of progress in the city’s recent governance cycle.

With additional momentum from approximately $100 million in concessional financing from the Government of South Korea—channeled through water infrastructure support programmes—the combined interventions could, by 2027, substantially close Nairobi’s chronic water supply gap. The key assumption, however, is not only infrastructure completion, but sustained operational efficiency and institutional coordination across implementing agencies.

This is where planning becomes decisive.

A planning-informed perspective frames these developments not as isolated infrastructure wins, but as part of a wider urban system that is continuously evolving. Demand in Nairobi is increasing at an estimated four per cent annually, reflecting population growth and spatial expansion. This means the city effectively adds the equivalent demand of a medium-sized municipality each year. Without continuous investment sequencing, supply gains risk being absorbed quickly by structural demand growth.

It is in this context that the NIUPLAN assumes strategic importance. NIUPLAN provides a structured framework for aligning land use, infrastructure development, and population growth trajectories. Where it is applied consistently, it enables planners to match supply investments with actual and projected urban expansion corridors, reducing inefficiencies and preventing infrastructure lag. Its growing influence in the water sector reflects a shift towards more integrated, data-driven urban management.

Equally important is the financing architecture underpinning these interventions. The cooperation between the Nairobi City County Government and the Government of Kenya has already unlocked approximately Sh80 billion in infrastructure investment across urban systems. This intergovernmental alignment is increasingly central to large-scale urban delivery, particularly in sectors such as water where capital requirements are high and returns are long-term. It provides continuity, de-risks implementation, and strengthens institutional capacity beyond electoral cycles.

However, infrastructure expansion alone is not sufficient. Non-revenue water remains a persistent constraint, as repeatedly highlighted in operational reviews by the Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company. Losses through leakage, illegal connections, and metering inefficiencies reduce effective supply even where raw water capacity has increased. Addressing this challenge offers one of the most immediate pathways to improving system performance without new large-scale abstraction.

Beyond infrastructure and efficiency lies the environmental foundation of the system. Nairobi’s water security is closely tied to upstream catchment conditions, many of which fall outside the city’s administrative jurisdiction. Climate variability further reinforces the need for resilient, diversified supply planning. NIUPLAN’s integration of environmental and infrastructure considerations is therefore central to long-term system stability rather than peripheral to it.

What is increasingly evident is a shift in how water is being understood within Nairobi’s development agenda: not merely as a basic service, but as foundational economic infrastructure. The current phase of investment reflects this recalibration. The question going forward is whether institutional coordination, financing discipline, and planning adherence can be sustained with equal consistency.

In sum, Nairobi is entering a transition phase in its water infrastructure trajectory. The coming years will be defined less by the completion of individual projects and more by the city’s ability to align growth, investment, and governance within a coherent planning framework. Success will depend not only on what is built, but on how systematically the city plans for what comes next.

Maliba Arnold is the executive director of the Open Future Hub (OFH)