President William Ruto is facing a growing political dilemma as ODM hardens its stance, threatening a broad-based walkout that has underpinned his 2027 re-election bid.

The standoff, coming months before the general election, now sends Ruto back to the drawing board should ODM make good on its threat.

Cup pressure peaks as Shabana host Kenya Police in blockbuster quarter-final Football

Upper Hill coach Walgwe unperturbed despite drawing giants in Prescott Cup group phase Rugby

Analysts warn that the friendly fire is no longer ‘friendly’ and might cost the President his re-election bid if not addressed in time.

“The same reason he (Ruto) didn’t want to retain Gachagua (ex-DP Rigathi) over political uncertainty and strategically organised for his impeachment and exit, is the same reason he should be worried about ODM,” political analyst Daniel Orogo warned.

ODM has been expressing dissatisfaction for weeks with the manner in which its broad-based partner is treating it, threatening to move out of the arrangement.

According to Makueni MP Daniel Maanzo, the UDA-ODM honeymoon is over and it is just a matter of time before Ruto finds himself isolated.

The lawmaker also did not rule out the possibility of the ODM party teaming up with the united opposition against Ruto.

“The moment ODM walks out (of the broad-based government), that means they can work with the opposition and Ruto will be completely isolated with his community,” Maanzo told the Star.

“There is a real threat to him (Ruto) for allowing his senior party members to mistreat ODM.”

The united opposition brings together Gachagua (DCP), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Justin Muturi (DP), Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K) and Martha Karua (PLP).

At the centre of the ODM-UDA row are allegations of systematic undermining of the Orange party by targeting and wooing its elected leaders to defect to the ruling outfit.

The tensions escalated on Thursday after ODM’s Central Committee resolved to suspend any coalition talks with the ruling UDA.

Ruto’s UDA and ODM were to begin eight-member negotiations on how to face next year’s elections. In the arrangement, both parties were to have four members each in the team.

In a further blow to the President’s political calculations, Thursday’s meeting also directed its members to scale down involvement in campaigns linked to Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.

Instead, the party said it will focus its energy on popularising the outfit as part of its preparations for the 2027 elections.

“As part of the activation programme, we shall embark on countrywide tours for a series of youth conventions aimed at rejuvenating, revamping and re-energising the party,” ODM Deputy Secretary General Catherine Omanyo said after the meeting on Thursday.

“We have no choice but to make our identity bigger, which remains in the hearts of the majority of Kenyans.”

The party has also accused some unnamed UDA top officials of publicly disrespecting the outfit, an issue that was deliberated at length during the Central Committee meeting chaired by party leader Oburu Oginga.

“On our relationship with our broad-based partners, the UDA party, the Central Committee noted with concern the goings-on and the unwarranted public utterances by some senior officials of the UDA party aimed at causing anxiety and disquiet among our members,” the party said in a statement.

“As a party that believes in its principles, ideology and the foundation on which it was founded, we demand respect from the UDA party.”

The statement is seen as targeting UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar, who last week in Kilifi led some party officials in dismissing ODM’s demands for zoning.

Omar insisted that the ruling party would field candidates in all corners of the country, a position ODM did not take lightly.

“ODM is saying the Coast is their stronghold and it should be left to them. I want to tell them that the Coast region belongs to its residents. They should allow us to compete fairly,” Omar said.

“If you believe this is your stronghold, then why are you worried? Come, campaign and win. There is no problem.”

ODM, however, has insisted that zoning is a non-negotiable minimum in any future arrangement with Ruto’s party.

“There is no negotiation when it comes to zoning. Because we are not going to allow UDA to plant candidates here in Muhoroni. All our party strongholds are reserved for ODM,” Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi said.

The move places Ruto at a crossroads, with fears that a fallout with ODM could significantly dent his re-election prospects by fracturing the support base he has been cultivating to replace the restive Mt Kenya vote.

Keen to keep his ODM partners, President Ruto has sought to address the emerging cracks, accusing some forces of driving a wedge between the two parties.

“The United Democratic Alliance and the Orange Democratic Movement will unite and work together,” the President said.

“The underhanded forces driving division between our two parties will not succeed. Our country is better when UDA and ODM are together.”

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, however, dismissed accusations that ODM members were being coerced to decamp to UDA, saying such moves are usually dictated by realities on the ground.

“I am not aware of any harassment, if any. Any wise political leader will be guided by the wishes of his or her people,” Nyamita told the Star on the phone.