Open letter to MPs: Will you tax our future, or save it?

Parliament in session

They are betting that you, our lawmakers, will not have the courage to stop them.

Today, you have in your hands a powerful tool to prove them wrong. It’s not a new law, a police force, or a public health campaign (though we need those too). It is a fiscal policy: tobacco taxation. And thanks to a new analysis using the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM) for Kenya, we can see, with startling clarity, the exact difference between a future sacrificed to tobacco and a future saved.

This article is not just about statistics. It is a plea from my generation. We are asking you to look at the evidence and choose us over an industry that profits from our death.

The Trap: Why the "Status Quo" is a Death Sentence for My Generation.

Let’s be clear: the government’s recent move to a uniform excise tax of KES 4,100 per 1,000 cigarettes in 2024 was a step in the right direction. It simplified a confusing system. But a single step is not enough to win a marathon.

The TETSiM model paints a terrifying picture of what happens if we stop here. This is the "Status Quo" scenario, and it is a trap.

Under this scenario, you leave the tax rate unchanged until 2029. What happens? The model shows that while prices might go up a little, my income (or my parents' income) is expected to grow faster. This means that, in real terms, cigarettes become more affordable, not less. The affordability index barely budges, dropping only slightly from 13.89% to 13.48%.

Think about what that means for a 16-year-old deciding how to spend their lunch money. If a pack of cigarettes takes up roughly the same or even a smaller chunk of their pocket money year after year, the financial barrier to starting or continuing that deadly habit crumbles.

The result? Total cigarette consumption is projected to rise from 7.75 billion sticks to over 8 billion. My generation gets hooked. The industry wins. The government loses too. The real value of your excise revenue is projected to plummet by nearly 14%, from KES 15.6 billion to KES 13.0 billion. You lose money, and we lose our lives. It is a lose-lose proposition.

The question is: is this the future you want to vote for?

The Double Dividend: How Higher Taxes Become a Lifeline and a Revenue Boom.

The TETSiM model then runs the numbers on what happens if you do the bold thing, if you use taxation as the powerful weapon it is meant to be. It simulates annual tax increases of 20%, 30%, and 50% over the next five years. The results are not just good policy; they are a blueprint for a healthier, wealthier nation.

Here is how it works and why it works:

1. The Price Signal: Every time you increase the excise tax, the price of cigarettes goes up. This is simple economics. A 50% annual tax increase would more than double the price of a pack by 2029, from KES 369 to KES 928.

2. The Affordability Wall: This price hike outpaces our income growth. The affordability index for the 50% scenario soars to 23.17%. Suddenly, that pack of cigarettes isn't competing with lunch money; it's competing with a week's worth of fare, data bundles, or saving for a goal. For a price-sensitive young person, that wall becomes insurmountable. This is why the WHO and TETSiM stress that tax increases must exceed inflation and income growth. It’s the only way to make the product genuinely less accessible.

3. The Consumption Drop: When products become less affordable, people buy less. The model projects a dramatic drop in total cigarette consumption, a 17.6% reduction under the 50% scenario. Legal sales would fall by nearly 30%. My friends don't start. Some current smokers quit. The industry's growth in Kenya is halted.

4. The Health Dividend: This drop in consumption translates directly into lives saved. A 50% annual tax increase could reduce smoking prevalence from 7.15% to just 5.84%. That means fewer cases of cancer, fewer heart attacks, fewer families impoverished by healthcare costs. The most powerful number in the entire report is the projection of nearly 90,000 premature deaths averted. Add an automatic inflation adjustment to that 50% increase, and that number climbs to an astonishing 102,570 life saved. These are not just statistics. They are fathers, mothers, future innovators, and friends. They are my generation.

Who Benefits from the Tax Collected? A Vision for a Healthier Kenya.

This brings us to a critical question: where does all this new revenue go? It doesn't just vanish into a black hole. This is the other half of the "double dividend."

Under the 50% annual increase scenario, the government isn't just saving lives; it's generating wealth. Real excise revenue more than doubles, reaching an estimated KES 42.7 billion by 2029 (or KES 49.2 billion with inflation adjustment).

Imagine what we could do with an extra KES 30+ billion specifically targeted for public good. Imagine this:

Fully funded universal health coverage, where our Huduma Centres and hospitals have the medicines and staff they need.

A massive investment in youth programs, building public sports facilities, supporting arts and culture, and funding technical and vocational training so we have skills for the future, not a deadly habit.

Strengthening our education system, reducing classroom crowding, and ensuring every child has the resources to learn and thrive.

Funding a new generation of tobacco farmers to switch to sustainable, life-giving crops, dismantling the industry's economic arguments from the ground up.

This is the promise of strong tobacco taxation. It’s a policy that actively discourages a deadly product while simultaneously funding the very services that build a healthy, productive society. It turns the tobacco industry's business model on its head: their sales decline, but our national potential explodes.

The Outcome: A Generation Saved, An Industry Defeated.

If you fully implement a policy of strong, predictable, above-inflation annual excise tax increases, the outcome by 2029 and beyond is transformative:

A new social norm: Smoking becomes less common, less affordable, and less cool. It is no longer a ubiquitous part of our culture.

A healthier, more productive workforce: The youth of today enter their most productive years free from the grip of addiction, contributing more to the economy than they ever could have as consumers of a lethal product.

A fortified national treasury: We have a reliable, growing stream of domestic revenue to fund our own development priorities, reducing dependency and building a truly self-reliant Kenya.

A model for the world: Kenya, already a regional leader in tobacco control, cements its position as a global champion of public health, proving that political courage can overcome corporate greed.

The TETSiM model has given us a map. It shows the dead-end road of the Status Quo, littered with the potential of lost generations and shrinking revenue. And it shows the highway to a prosperous future, paved with bold tax reform, where every percentage point increase is an investment in our youth and our nation.

The Youth Are Watching.

Honorable Members of the National Assembly, the evidence is in your hands. The tobacco industry is counting on inaction, on the fear of the illicit trade, on the myth of job losses. But the TETSiM model shows that well-designed tax increases grow the pie for everyone, while the industry's threats are just but threats, not realities.

We, the youth of Kenya, are watching. We are reading the news. We see who funds campaigns and who lobbies for what. We are not just passive observers; we are future leaders of this country.

When you debate the next finance bill, we ask you:

Will you vote for the industry that profits from our addiction and death? Or will you vote for us—for Amani, for James , for their friends, for a generation that deserves a future free from the burden of tobacco? The choice is clear. The evidence is undeniable.

Implement a predictable, medium-term tobacco tax path. Increase excise taxes annually by at least 30-50%. Reinstate and strengthen automatic inflation adjustments. Allocate a significant portion of the new revenue to health and youth development.

Be the leaders who chose life over profit. Be the leaders who saved a generation. We are counting on you.