Sifuna, Babu lead Senate, governor races in Nairobi

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A new poll has revealed the dominant positions of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino in the lead-up to the upcoming elections.

Sifuna leads the Senate race with a commanding 47.5 per cent, significantly ahead of Lang'ata MP Phelix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang'o, who stands at 21.6 per cent.

Joshua Oluoch, head of research at Radio Africa Group (RAL) said Sifuna’s lead suggests a strong voter base as he considers defending his seat or possibly aiming for a presidential run, especially with rising calls from leaders in Bungoma.

The poll, conducted through computer-aided interviews from July 25 to 27, surveyed 500 registered voters in Nairobi county and maintains a margin of error of ±4.4 per cent.

The findings indicate that Sifuna is one of the most crucial political figures for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

A significant 73 per cent of respondents expressed a desire for Sifuna to either seek a higher office or explore opportunities outside ODM, signalling shifting political sentiments among the electorate.

In the gubernatorial race, Babu has garnered 42 per cent of support, opening a substantial 24-point lead over the current governor, Johnson Sakaja, who received only 17.6 per cent.

Oluoch highlights that the scale of Sakaja's decline is notable and suggests that the race is not closely contested at this stage.

Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri, who recently announced his candidacy, is trailing far behind with just eight per cent, potentially acting as a vote-splitter for Sakaja, should he pursue the UDA ticket.

Makadara MP George Aladwa, polling at 7.1 per cent, could emerge as Babu's main rival for the ODM nomination.

Further insights from the survey reveal that Babu’s closest challengers are lagging significantly; in fact, Karauri's eight per cent places him in a distant third, with George Aladwa close behind at 7.1 per cent.

Other notable candidates like Moses Kuria and political activist Tony Gachoka are factoring into a tightly contested cluster, with Kuria earning 6.3 per cent, Gakuya at 5.7 per cent, and Gachoka at 4.1 per cent.

A combined 3.5 per cent of voters remain undecided, while 5.7 per cent rejected all the options presented.

The poll also sheds light on perceptions of Governor Sakaja's performance. Astonishingly, 70 per cent of Nairobi voters rate his tenure at City Hall as fair or poor, illustrating a challenging environment for him as he prepares for the 2027 elections.

Just 2.4 per cent of respondents rated his performance as excellent, while 27 per cent felt that the county government was meeting its mandates.

The key issues at the forefront of voters’ minds are unemployment and insecurity, both cited by 24 per cent of those interviewed, followed by the rising cost of living at 20 per cent.

Issues of garbage collection, sanitation and infrastructure also ranked, but lower in comparison, suggesting that socioeconomic conditions are primary concerns for Nairobians.

The dynamics surrounding the UDA party signal a fragmented electoral landscape. If candidates were to consolidate their efforts behind a single UDA candidate, they could theoretically achieve 42 per cent of the vote, according to the poll.

However, the path to defeating Babu likely involves uniting the UDA vote, a task that may prove challenging given current factions.

Karauri, although not elected on a UDA ticket, seems to be leaning towards the party, and his involvement could further complicate the situation.

The Woman Representative race is another arena of uncertainty.

Incumbent Esther Passaris currently leads with 23 per cent but has announced her decision to shift her focus to the Makadara MP seat, effectively leaving the position open for new candidates.

Notable challengers include Millicent Omanga, who once again is vying for the seat and polling at 14.9 per cent.

Omanga’s recent departure from the UDA party could strategically position her within the United Opposition.

The poll also highlighted other candidates vying for the Woman Representative position, including Scophine Aoko at 13 per cent, Hanifa Adan at 10.4 per cent and Crystal Asige at 9.2 per cent.

Karen Nyamu received an approval rating of 8.8 per cent, while Corazon Kwamboka garnered 4.7 per cent and Tabitha Mutinda came in last at 2.9 per cent. Notably, Mutinda is mobilising her political networks and has begun her campaign efforts for the representative seat.

The rapidly evolving political landscape in Nairobi is complicated by a volatile electorate that remains open to consolidation.

The insights from this poll indicate a highly competitive atmosphere for Nairobi's future electoral battles, making it clear that candidates will need to adapt quickly to shifting voter preferences. With no clear incumbents in crucial races and multiple potential challengers, the path to victories in the next elections is both critical and uncertain.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The poll exposes a classic political dilemma where Babu Owino commands a unified opposition base, while the ruling coalition’s vote is fractured three ways. For Sakaja, Karauri and Kuria, only consolidation can challenge Babu’s 42 per cent. In the Senate, Sifuna’s dominance faces its stiffest test yet in the wake of a popular rival armed with presidential influence. Ultimately, Nairobi’s outcome will hinge on whether UDA can unite or continue gifting the race to Babu.