The results handed United Opposition leaders among them Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Rigathi Gachagua (DCP) a major setback in their “one-term” campaign.
The UDA win has also reinforced a pattern that has emerged since the November by-elections, where the ruling party and its broad-based ally ODM also carried the majority of the seats on offer.
In the latest contests, UDA secured victories in key races including the Isiolo South parliamentary seat and the three ward by-elections in Mbeere North and Malava constituencies, consolidating its grip across regions seen as politically restive.
Health CS Aden Duale, among other top leaders in the administration, have said the results reflected public confidence in President Ruto’s agenda.
“I congratulate all UDA candidates who won the recent by-elections, reaffirming the public's confidence in the party's leadership and development agenda, as championed by President William Ruto,” he said.
The Isiolo South outcome was particularly striking, with the ruling party winning by a landslide margin, underscoring its continued ability to mobilise votes in areas that were once political battlegrounds.
The seat was previously held by Jubilee Party, which is in the opposition camp.
Political commentator Jeremiah Kiplang’at noted that given Jubilee won the seat in 2022, it means Ruto has managed to flip it to his camp in just three years.
“What makes it more interesting is the winning margin. UDA's candidate has swept the ground by over 90 per cent of the votes cast. Thats makes for some food for thought months to 2027 elections,” Kiplang’at said.
Supporters of the President say the victories confirm the strength of a nationwide political network that cuts across regions. They point to recent by-elections from Coast to Nyanza and Mt Kenya that have seen the party perform strongly.
Nakuru Governor Susan Kihika said the results demonstrate the party’s growing dominance.
“Numbers don’t lie. A clean sweep on all the by election seats, from Isiolo to Kakamega to Embu clearly shows UDA is the party to beat," she said.
Senator Samson Cherargei said the results signal a major advantage heading into the 2027 general election.
“This is a clear indication that the broad-based coalition will win by landslide in 2027 led by President William Ruto,” Cherargei said.
In a statement, UDA said the victories reaffirmed public support for its policies.
“This victory reaffirms the people's confidence in the party's agenda of transformation and inclusive development.”
The results have also revived debate about the predictive value of by-elections in Kenya’s politics.
Historically, mini-polls have often offered a glimpse of voter trends ahead of general elections.
For instance, Moses ole Sakuda was elected Kajiado North MP in 2012 in a by-election on a TNA ticket, the party that would alongside URP form government in 2013.
Ahead of the 2022 elections, opposition parties won in Juja and Kiambaa constituencies.
The latest outcome, coming barely months after the November by-elections, has strengthened this pattern and the perception that the ruling party is consolidating its ground across regions.
Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba, who recently decamped from the opposition camp, said the results could mark a historic moment, if the trend continues.
“Since the introduction of multiparty, I have never seen any sitting President apart from Moi winning by elections and general election in the same party. UDA will make history if things remain constant. Winning elections is about strategy,” Wamuchomba said on Friday.
Analysts and politicians allied to the government argue that the numbers show the President’s political machine remains intact even in areas where critics have predicted declining support.
Political and social commentator George Diano said the results highlight both momentum and the strength of the political structures backing the ruling party.
“Mt Kenya's wins yesterday are a mix of willing votes, incentives and structural influence. Whether people vote voluntarily or under pressure, the system producing these wins now could easily shape the 2027 general election. Momentum matters, but so does the machinery behind it,” Diano said.
He added that the defeats should serve as a warning to the opposition as “there's literally no way of justifying yesterday's big loss”.
If you claim that elections were rigged, don't you think that is a very lame excuse. If you can't protect an MCA seat, do you think you can manage the presidential votes,” he posed.
Diano said the key difference between activism and electoral politics is becoming evident as the country moves closer to 2027.
“By-elections are the most honest barometer of political strength. They test organisation, discipline, resource deployment, and voter conversion.”
But opposition leaders have dismissed the results and questioned the credibility of the polls.
Martha Karua, leader of the People’s Liberation Party, said the outcome raised serious concerns about the conduct of the elections.
“In free and fair elections, it is difficult for UDA to win even an MCA seat. The UDA candidate in Evurore Ward was not even number three in the polling. There is no way voters could have changed their minds overnight. I am waiting for the report,” Karua said on Friday.
Karua also argued that the opposition must focus on protecting the integrity of the vote ahead of the general election.
“The challenge even in the general election is how we mobilise, vote and guard the vote. This manipulation of the electoral process is to make people lose hope and see voting as futile. That is what we must fight against.”
She insisted that by-elections are easier to influence than a nationwide contest.
“There will be over 53,000 polling stations. They will be stretched. They cannot abuse security on that day on the scale they do on the by-elections.”
Karua further claimed that some of the results did not reflect the mood on the ground.
“The by-elections cannot have been free with UDA winning in Mbeere and Evurore. People are done with them and everybody knows. If he (Ruto) has any favour, how is it that they have to employ goons. Goons reign free escorted by the police,” she said.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, an and ally of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka backed Karua's views, saying the results were interfered with.
Maanzo, however, said this will not be possible in 2027 as everyone will be fighting for himself.
"We are also coming up with mechanism to protect the vote. We have a law, which is yet to be processed by the President whereby results will be declared at the polling station. We will have agents at every poling station," Maanzo said.
Despite the criticism, the ruling party’s back-to-back by-election victories have shifted the political conversation, with attention now turning to whether the opposition can reorganise ahead of the 2027 contest.
And with by-elections historically serving as early indicators of national voting patterns, the latest results may deepen pressure on the opposition to strengthen its grassroots structures and electoral strategy before the next general election.
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