KRA tax collections (Shillings in trillions)

Kenya Revenue Authority has consistently missed its tax collection targets over four consecutive financial years.

In 2021/2022, the target was Sh2.071 trillion, but actual collections reached only Sh0.952 trillion—less than half the goal.

The following year, 2022/2023, saw a higher target of Sh2.495 trillion, yet actual revenue stood at Sh1.051 trillion, again falling short by a wide margin.

In 2023/2024, the target slightly decreased to Sh2.475 trillion, but collections rose modestly to Sh1.074 trillion.

Despite the improvement, the gap remained substantial. The 2024/2025 target increased to Sh2.627 trillion, with actual revenue at Sh1.161 trillion, continuing the trend of underperformance.

The shortfall in the first half of the 2025/2026 financial year alone amounted to Sh152.2 billion, highlighting persistent challenges in revenue mobilisation. These figures suggest structural inefficiencies in tax collection, possibly linked to economic pressures, compliance gaps, or enforcement limitations.

The consistent underachievement points to a need for reform in tax policy, administration, and digital infrastructure. Strengthening taxpayer engagement, expanding the tax base, and improving audit systems could help close the gap.

Additionally, addressing informal sector dynamics and enhancing real-time data tracking may offer pathways to more accurate forecasting and improved performance.